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40 Fantasy Facts - NL East Edition

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

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Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the National League East:

Atlanta Braves

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

  • 1B Freddie Freeman was the lone bright spot in Atlanta's horrendous first half, but that's too backhanded a compliment. How about the fact Freeman had the second highest hard-hit percentage in all of baseball, behind only former Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz. He led the majors in line-drive percentage (29.1), and is still somehow underrated.
  • OF Matt Kemp was an all-around better hitter after being traded to the Braves from the San Diego Padres. In 56 games, he hit .280 with 12 home runs and received 20 walks. He walked only 16 times in 100 games with the Padres. The small sample size brings reasonable concern to his sustainability, but it's a promising development.
  • OF Ender Inciarte lives to make contact. He had one of the lowest swinging strike rates in baseball and finished on the cusp of a .300 batting average.
  • Newly-acquired 2B Brandon Phillips is a similar batter. He struck out at an even lower percentage than Inciarte, while walking less often than any other batter in the major leagues other than Texas Rangers 2B Rougned Odor. Phillips will put plenty of balls in play, it will simply depend on where they land.
  • While scoring on the next big thing is every fantasy player's dream, SS Dansby Swanson is a tricky player to place. He hit .302 over 38 games with a .383 BABIP possibly explaining why he performed leaps better than he had in Double-A. He stole only three bases and hit only three home runs. Expectations should be tempered in case he's simply good instead of generational.
  • An injury seemed to derail RHP Julio Teheran over his final nine starts after returning from an injury en route to a 4.22 ERA. He was hurt by a .316 BABIP and instead had a FIP of 3.65, which was more in line with his season numbers. Ironically, he went 4-1 proving yet again you can't predict pitcher wins with much assurance.
  • In addition to being the oldest player in MLB, RHP Bartolo Colon posted a sub-4.00 ERA over 191.2 innings in 2016. He barely strikes anyone out, but he also pitches to contact effectively. He's a streaming option from the very beginning and a low-cost DFS choice to buoy a pricey offense.
  • RP Jim Johnson saved 20 games while keeping his ERA a sparkly, for him, 3.06. After a couple of seasons in the weeds following a successful run with the Baltimore Orioles, he has emerged as a solid closing option in Atlanta. He will be on a short leash, however, as RHP Arodys Vizcaino looms.

Miami Marlins

  • OF Giancarlo Stanton is the patron baseball saint of missed opportunities. He has hit 54 home runs over his last two seasons, but he has also missed 131 games -- nearly a whole season -- in the time. Draft him knowing what could easily befall him.
  • In his fourth MLB season, OF Christian Yelich made major offensive strides. He surpassed 20 home runs for the first time, belting 21 while driving in 98 runs. He did so by upping his FB% to 20.0 with career highs in HR/FB (23.6%) and hard-hit percentage (38.0%). He needs to be drafted within the first five rounds as it could be the tip of the iceberg.
  • While Milwaukee Brewers IF Jonathan Villar led the league in stolen bases with 62, he may have seen more of a challenge from 2B Dee Gordon if his suspension didn't come down. Gordon stole 24 bases in the second half, tied for third in MLB. Batting atop the order once again, his lower stock may be unwarranted.
  • C J.T. Realmuto owned pronounced reverse-splits in 2016, batting .322 against right-handed pitching while batting .215 against lefties. He also hit much better on the road (.352) than he did in the supposedly friendly confines of Marlins Park (.250). He has appeal, but he has been a bit of a roller coaster.
  • 2016 was a bit of a rebound for OF Marcell Ozuna, though many of his peripheral numbers stayed roughly the same. One area with a drastic change was his fly-ball percentage going from 30.8 percent to 36.5, possibly helping explain his 2015 dip in home runs.
  • Mr. Stability, LHP Wei-Yin Chen crashed in 2016. He had developed a reputation as a reliable, if unspectacular, arm in his three seasons with Baltimore. His 123.1 innings and 4.96 ERA were career-worsts as he struggled with injury and some bad luck. His velocity (never a selling point) wasn't too far off his career, so if he's healthy he may be a decent fantasy arm.
  • There was plenty to like about LHP Adam Conley's sophomore season. He struck out 8.37 batters per nine innings and kept his ERA at 3.85. He rarely allowed home runs despite allowing 41.1 percent fly balls and 20.7 line drives. The one ugly number came in his 4.19 BB/9. He needs to fix his command.
  • The entire bullpen throws gas, but it's RHP A.J. Ramos who will be deployed to close out games at the beginning of the season. He saved 40 games in 2016. Only one appearance in September lasted longer than an inning. Like Conley, he needs to cut down on the free passes, but his stuff is electric and he's a worthy closer option in all fantasy formats.

New York Mets

  • OF Yoenis "Core Strength" Cespedes has finally reached a power level fantasy owners anticipated since his Oakland days with back-to-back 30 home run seasons. He hit the ball harder than ever before, increasing his line-drive percentage in the process. Cespedes also upped his walk rate and managed a .280 batting average despite a .298 BABIP.
  • Longtime Mets 3B David Wright played only 37 games in 2016. He played only 38 in 2015. He struck out an astonishing 33.5 percent of the time, helping cement the worst season of his career. His contact remained excellent, except he made contact at the worst rate of his career with a swinging strike rate of 12.4.
  • If you think you have 2B Neil Walker pegged, I'm all ears. He has alternated his home run totals 16-23-16-23 over his last four seasons. His HR/FB rate was 16.2, higher than he'd ever managed before. His true power outcome is likely somewhere in between those two numbers.
  • In his time with the New York Yankees, OF Curtis Granderson seemed to lose a step with his swing, striking out more often, selling out for 40-home run power. His batting average stayed low, but he hit 30 home runs for the first time with the Mets and continued to improve his K-rate. His .254 BABIP was the lowest of his career.
  • OF Michael Conforto cannot hit left-handed pitching. He went 5-for-48 against lefties in 2016. And it was all going so well. He hit .365 with four home runs and 11 doubles in April. Afterward, he hit .174 with eight home runs and only 10 more doubles and lost his starting gig. Yikes.
  • Patience is a virtue. The Mets have slowly worked RHP Noah Syndergaard up to the 183.2 innings he pitched last season, and so far so good. He had a 2.60 ERA with a 10.68 K/9 allowing only 0.54 HR/9. Thor has a lot of hype surrounding him with good reason.
  • His brother in arms, RHP Matt Harvey, has not benefited from the kid gloves approach. He made it through only 17 starts and 92.2 innings before ending his season early. His K/9 (7.38) was down and his BB/9 (2.43) was up. Harvey's velocity was uniformly down across all his pitches, as well.
  • Closer Jeurys Familia's 51 saves were the most in the majors. He limited power to an absurd degree allowing only a single home run (to Padres 1B/OF Wil Myers) over his 77.2 innings. Familia was also alleged to have assaulted his wife (charges were dismissed) and could face a suspension like RP Aroldis Chapman did a year ago.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • It's important to remember 2016 was 3B Maikel Franco's first full season in the majors. He exceeded his rookie status in 2015, but still only played 80 games. He hit 25 home runs in 152 games and struck out only 16.8 percent of the time landing him just outside the top 50 in the department. If he continues this trend, he'll be a big sleeper in the middle rounds.
  • OF Odubel Herrera hit 15 home runs and stole 25 bases in his sophomore season. This may lead some to speculate he will join the 20/20 club in 2017. It's possible, but it's worth noting he was never much for power in the minors, maxing out at five homers in Single-A in 2012.
  • IF/OF Howie Kendrick had his worst season in terms of batting average (.255), but otherwise he was mostly right with his career averages. From 2009 to 2015, Kendrick hit between .279 and .297 every single season. He's not mind-blowing, but his consistency comes cheap.
  • 1B Tommy Joseph was a part-time player during his rookie season, but with longstanding Phillies 1B Ryan Howard departing, Joseph is taking over. He managed to hit 21 home runs in only 347 plate appearances. More at-bats in RBI situations could yield positive results as long as he improves his 85.1 percent zone contact.
  • Pre-All Star break, OF Michael Saunders hit .298 with 16 home runs and 42 RBIs with the Toronto Blue Jays. Afterward, he hit .178 with eight home runs while striking out in 30.4 percent of his plate appearances. The Jekyll & Hyde act makes him difficult to trust outside NL-only leagues.
  • RHP Aaron Nola was a disappointment in mixed leagues, going 6-9 with a 4.78 ERA over 111.0 innings. His 9.81 K/9 is enough to maintain fantasy interest. More of note may be his 3.08 FIP and xFIP, especially when seen alongside his .334 BABIP (12th highest among pitchers with at least 100 IP).
  • Fellow young RHP Jerad Eickhoff was a bit on the opposite end. His 3.65 ERA was a fantasy boon despite a 4.19 FIP and .278 BABIP. Eickhoff also failed to strike batters out at as smooth a clip (7.62 K/9) as Nola.
  • The closer is RHP Jeanmar Gomez despite his 4.85 ERA and a K/9 of only 6.16. He saved 37 games, but that's not a lock to stay the same. His chief rival is Hector Neris who struck out 102 batters in 80.2 innings pitched, showcasing a more traditional closer's arsenal.

Washington Nationals

  • Superstar OF Bryce Harper hit 13 of his 24 home runs by the end of May. His soft contact (19.8 percent) was way up from 2015 (11.9). The power and batting average was down, but one area prospective owners are likely pleased by is in his 21 stolen bases.
  • Rookie IF/OF Trea Turner had 34 multi-hit games. He played only 73. He had three games with four hits, the same amount batting champion Colorado Rockies 2B DJ LeMahieu had in 146 games. Turner's rookie campaign was probably enough to make people ignore the small sample size.
  • 2B Daniel Murphy kept his 2015 postseason magic streak going, having his best season by far in his age-31 campaign. He had never hit more than 14 home runs in a season before blasting 25 last year. He was also one of only four qualified batters to strike out in less than 10 percent of his plate appearances.
  • Penciled-in as Washington's leadoff hitter, OF Adam Eaton hit only .276 when batting first for the White Sox last season. Overall, he slashed .284/.362/.428 while scoring 91 runs. If he stays atop the potent Nationals lineup, he could challenge for the league lead in runs scored. His current ADP (according to FantasyPros) is 116. Potentially great value.
  • Between his two fully healthy seasons, 3B Anthony Rendon has combined to hit 41 home runs and steal 29 bases. It's not elite, but Rendon has shown an ability to contribute some power with a little speed while not breaking a rotisserie team's batting average.
  • Reigning Cy Young winner, RHP Max Scherzer threw a National League-leading 228.1 innings in 2016. It was the fourth consecutive year he has thrown over 200 innings with the low coming in at 214 1/3. He also notched a career best 11.19 K/9, though he was also a bit prone to the home run.
  • RHP Stephen Strasburg was matching Scherzer pitch for pitch and strikeout for strikeout before missing some time in late June, and pitching only 4.0 innings after Aug. 12. He had a 9.45 ERA over his final five appearances. Another hot start and owners could be tempted to sell high.
  • RHP Shawn Kelley filled in as the closer for Jonathan Papelbon on occasion prior to the acquisition of Mark Melancon. With those two gone, the job is tentatively Kelley's. Kelley was effective in his first season with the Nationals, posting a 2.64 ERA with a 12.41 K/9. With the team projected to win the division, he could be in line for plenty of save opportunities.

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