Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - First Base Edition

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Stud = Player expected to have a high floor (excluding the most obvious top names)
Dud = Player expected to drastically underperform ADP/or hurt a team
▲ = Player whose value will be on the rise from previous years
▼ = Player whose value will be on the decline from previous years

ADP Consensus can be found at FantasyPros.

Which top-10 1B worries you most in standard 5x5?

Jason Wilson: Edwin Encarnacion was one of the bigger free agent acquisitions of the offseason, and with good reason. He hit 42 home runs with a career-high 127 RBIs. The Cleveland offense looks solid around him, too. He also struck out 19.7 per cent of the time, his highest rate since 2009. If he stops making contact, his decline will swiftly follow.

Andrew Potter: It's nice that Wil Myers came within two HRs and two SBs from joining the 30/30 club, but I'd much rather him join the 90-90 club - two straight years with at least 90 games played at the major league level. He also doesn't have the protection of a veteran hitter like Matt Kemp this year; Myers slashed .284/.347/.532 before Kemp's departure but just .233/.325/.390 after.

Esten McLaren: Daniel Murphy had a BABIP 30 points above his career average last season. His 6.0 walk rate matched his career rate and wasn't impressive. While he'll have run and RBI opportunities in the middle of the Washington order, he has nearly ceased stealing bases and his BABIP and ISO from last season were too far above career norms to trust.

Ken Conrad: It's Myers. He had a breakout 2016, homering 28 times and stealing 28 bases; most importantly, Myers played in 157 games. No stranger to injury, the former Ray featured in just 60 games in 2015 and 87 in 2014. Myers has never offered more than a middling batting average, so a possible dip in steals and some time on the DL would make him a disappointment.

Who offers the best chance at late-round power?

Wilson: Tommy Joseph has shed the shackles after previously having to share time with Ryan Howard. In 347 plate appearances, Joseph hit 21 long balls. While his high K-rate, low walk rate, and mediocre batting average raise concern, you won't pay a premium price for him in standard drafts. He's only 25 and has plenty of room to grow.

Potter: Justin Bour has hit 38 homers over his past 219 games, a pace of 29 when adjusted to a 162-game season. Bour struggles mightily against left-handed pitchers, but he still owns the larger piece of the Marlins' 1B platoon. If he can learn to work a walk against southpaws, it should result in a full-time role. If he can get to 500 PAs, 20 HRs is probable.

McLaren: Carlos Santana is still just 30 years old, somewhat rationalizing his career-high 34 homers from 2016. While he has a batting average below .250 for his career, his .365 on-base percentage keeps him at the top of the lineup. His ISO peeked at .239 last season, a big turnaround from previous seasons. He may not hit 34, but 25-plus is likely with nearly 100 runs and RBIs.

Conrad: Despite being last season's NL co-leader in home runs with 41, it took Chris Carter a long time to find a job, as he signed with the Yankees in February. Carter has hit between 24 and 41 home runs in each of his four full MLB seasons, though a career .218 average won't offer much fantasy-wise. Still, as a pure power threat, Carter will almost certainly deliver the goods.

Traditionally a deep fantasy position, 1B looks top-heavy. What's your draft strategy for the position?

Wilson: I might roll the dice and try to land Santana or Adrian Gonzalez late, but otherwise I'm gunning for a top name in the first round presuming I don't land the No. 1 pick (widely known as the Mike Trout Position). If I draw number two, I'm taking Paul Goldschmidt no matter what. This isn't a position to wait on unless you like living dangerously.

Potter: I'm looking to have a 1B, 3B and one middle-infielder by the end of Round 3; positional depth allows me to prioritize the other two players first. If I can grab 3B Nolan Arenado and 2B Trea Turner, or 2B Jose Altuve and 3B Josh Donaldson in the first two rounds, I'm ecstatic to pick up Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto or Freddie Freeman in Round 3.

McLaren: In a keeper draft I'm keeping any first baseman I can at a decent value. In redraft leagues, I'll want a top 1B taken in either the first or second round. The scarcity of the elite producers makes it the position worthy of the largest portion of an auction budget. (Note: Esten landed Anthony Rizzo and Votto with his first two picks in his NFBC Draft Champions league.)

Conrad: I would recommend taking one of the elite names (which likely ends with Freeman) within the first three rounds, since first base is such an important fantasy position. Should that not be possible, there's a solid amount of depth available in the mid-to-late rounds, namely Jose Abreu, Matt Carpenter and 2016 119-RBI man Albert Pujols.

What 1B prospect are you keeping your eyes on?

Wilson: I'm patiently waiting for New York Mets prospect Dominic Smith. Lucas Duda is the only person in his path on the depth chart. Duda only played 47 games last season, and the Mets didn't invest in any real first base insurance. Smith hit 14 home runs with a .302/.367/.457 slash line at Double-A in 2016 with an impressive 13.7 % K-rate. The 21-year-old is close.

Potter: The Rangers have a prospect in 3B Joey Gallo whose power potential is capped only by the law of gravity -- and his inability to avoid strikeouts. He's blocked at third by Adrian Beltre but Texas doesn't have much depth beyond Mike Napoli at first. If Gallo puts the full package together this season, he might force the team to consider a change of position for the slugger.

McLaren: Josh Bell of the Pirates just barely qualifies for this category, after playing 45 games and accumulating 152 plate appearances last season. He should fully replace John Jaso this season, with Jaso drawing occasional starts against righties. Bell hasn't shown significant pop at any level, but his .368 OBP in last year's limited stint should keep him in the lineup.

Conrad: Los Angeles Dodgers' Cody Bellinger is baseball's top prospect at the position. Adrian Gonzalez is entrenched at first base, and while Bellinger can also feature in the outfield, Los Angeles has no shortage of options there as well. Especially in keeper formats, Bellinger is worth monitoring should a trade free up a place for him, either with the Dodgers or elsewhere.