Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Third Base Edition

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TheScore put together a comprehensive series of rankings for each position. This week, our fantasy analysts will discuss the positions and several concerns heading into draft season.

Stud = Player expected to have a high floor (excluding the most obvious top names)
Dud = Player expected to drastically underperform ADP/or hurt a team
▲ = Player whose value will be on the rise from previous years
▼ = Player whose value will be on the decline from previous years

ADP Consensus can be found at FantasyPros.

If you miss a first round 3B, who are you willing to reach for?

Jason Wilson: I'll stay relatively patient if I miss out on Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado and company. If the squeeze is coming in the following rounds, I don't mind stretching for Evan Longoria. He has played at least 160 games in four straight seasons, and hit a career-best 36 home runs while hitting .273 last season. A trade would boost his RBI value if he landed on a contender.

Andrew Potter: You can't go wrong with drafting Kyle Seager anywhere after the 55th pick -- a slight reach above his ADP. He's averaged 159 games per season since 2012 and continues to develop his power profile as the lineup around him improves. Now he has an above-average table-setter in SS Jean Segura at the top of the lineup. Expect 25-plus HRs, 100-plus RBIs and a batting average in line with last season's .278.

Esten McLaren: Matt Carpenter is my favorite value target of the entire draft. The expected move to first base for the Cardinals should help keep him healthy, allowing for 20-plus homers and close to 200 combined runs and RBIs as a career .284 hitter in the middle of the lineup. He'll add in a handful of stolen bases. He's available at the draft cost of a corner infielder.

Ken Conrad: He'll turn 38 in early April, but Adrian Beltre just keeps on ticking. He's hit .300 or better in four of the last five seasons, while playing in no fewer than 143 games in any year of that stretch. Texas' potent lineup is well-suited to its hitter-friendly ballpark, so a second straight year with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs is possible for Beltre.

Who has unfairly slipped off the fantasy radar?

Wilson: Nick Castellanos is pretty far down the consensus ADP ladder. None of us ranked him inside the top 20 at the position despite him being only 24 years old. He hit .285 in 110 games last season and smoked 18 home runs in the process. It's nothing flashy, but he's being severely underrated, likely due to his injury history.

Potter: After hitting 21 HRs and swiping 11 bases in a breakout 2016, Eugenio Suarez has an ADP that suggests that he won't even be drafted in 10-team leagues. Sure, a .248 batting average is nothing special, but he plays his home games in a great batter's park and the potential to bat either before or after Joey Votto brings major counting stat potential.

McLaren: Martin Prado has totaled just 10 combined home runs and steals in each of the last two seasons, but he had 70 runs and 75 RBIs while hitting at the top of the Marlins' order and slashing .305/.359/.417. Miami will have 2B Dee Gordon and OF Giancarlo Stanton back for 2017, providing additional boosts to Prado's runs and RBI counts. He'll steadily provide value.

Conrad: Jake Lamb of the Arizona Diamondbacks doesn't seem to getting much respect on the back of a 29-homer, 91-RBI campaign. According to Fangraphs, Lamb ranked 15th among all players in hard-hit percentage, and plays his home games at the very hitter-friendly Chase Field. If he can improve against left-handed pitching (he's a career .169 hitter versus southpaws), Lamb should easily outperform his ADP.

Ranked fairly closely together, who do you expect to be a post-hype breakout, Miguel Sano or Maikel Franco?

Wilson: Both offer similar power, and while Franco is the more disciplined hitter -- striking out only half as often -- I am leaning toward Sano on account of his upside. Sano tattoos the ball. Only 14.1 per cent of his contact was soft, placing him in the upper echelon of all MLB hitters. His whiff rate is concerning, but any strides will be a boon.

Potter: Sano's batted ball stats scare me a little. He's a career 44.3% flyball hitter, which doesn't really jive with a career .354 BABIP. The Twins lineup has some holes that could allow opponents to pitch around him for the most part. Franco plays in a very HR-friendly park, with two unheralded on-base machines in Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez hitting ahead of him.

McLaren: I'll side with Franco on account of having more confidence in the Philadelphia Phillies than in the Minnesota Twins. He was also a plus-rated defender at third last season, while Sano had a negative grade as a 3B and OF. Franco also has a more favorable home park than Sano, allowing a few additional home runs.

Conrad: Sano has the better power upside of the pair; he's averaged a home run every 4.56 games compared to one every 6.36 games for Franco. Of course, power isn't everything, and while their career batting averages are similar, Franco has an unlucky lifetime BABIP of .277, while Sano has benefited from a sure-to-regress mark of .354. Franco is the safer bet to break out.

Explain your Javier Baez ranking. What can be reasonably expected?

Wilson: I'm low on Baez because there isn't a clear path to everyday playing time. He likely made people take notice with a laundry list of star-making plays in the 2016 postseason, but fantasy owners expecting a breakout shouldn't hold their breath. He has power, but unless he gets traded or someone else does, he's doomed to a timeshare.

Potter: I rank Baez 32nd among 3Bs. You're talking about a utility infielder who only managed to scrape out a .273 BA with an elevated .336 BABIP. His HR-to-flyball rate (12.7%) in 2016 was twice has high as that of his previous season; regression in HR pace could be around the corner. I think he'll get into the lineup just often enough -- 450 PAs -- to drive his owners crazy. Call me when he has an everyday job.

McLaren: Baez continues to struggle to solidify consistent playing time for the Cubs, though the trade of OF Jorge Soler for RP Wade Davis should help. Baez will need to outplay OF Jon Jay in Spring Training and force utility man Ben Zobrist back to the outfield. Baez has 20/20 potential with 600 plate appearances.

Conrad: I ranked him 19th among third baseman. He shouldn't be counted on as a fantasy starter in the early going, but thanks to his three-position eligibility, Baez has a decent amount of upside. 2016 was his first full MLB season, and he's still only 24. It's not like the Cubs will want him to play fewer than the 142 games and 450 PAs he received in 2016. A 15-homer, 15-steal campaign is a possibility.