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Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Shortstop Edition

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Stud = Player expected to have a high floor (excluding the most obvious top names)
Dud = Player expected to drastically underperform ADP/or hurt a team
▲ = Player whose value will be on the rise from previous years
▼ = Player whose value will be on the decline from previous years

EXPERT STUD DUD
Wilson Jonathan Villar Jean Segura Dansby Swanson Eduardo Nunez
Bisson Francisco Lindor Trevor Story Corey Seager Jean Segura
Ghatak Trevor Story Jean Segura Brad Miller Eduardo Nunez
Wegman Francisco Lindor Xander Bogaerts Dansby Swanson Javier Baez

ADP Consensus can be found at FantasyPros.

Our top three shortstops were almost interchangeable. Who concerns you most?

Jason Wilson: Even though I ranked Baltimore Orioles 3B/SS Manny Machado as my number one shortstop, he's my pick here. In keeper leagues, he'll probably lose position eligibility after 2017, but in standard leagues he has lost an entire category already. Machado stole 20 bases in 2015 and attempted only three stolen bases in 2016. He was caught all three times.

James Bisson: If I have to pick one of the three to be concerned about, I would lean toward Los Angeles Dodgers SS Corey Seager. While he had a tremendous rookie season, we've seen what happens when fantasy players project significant growth in Year 2 -take Correa as Exhibit A. Seager doesn't run like Correa, and the power numbers don't yet rival Machado. He might only be very good this season.

Josh Ghatak: After last season's let down, Houston Astros SS Carlos Correa has me worried. While I'm sure he's still going to be a fine selection, the drop in power from hitting 22 homers in 99 games throughout 2015 to 20 homers in 153 games last year is an issue. I wouldn't spend my second-round pick on enigmatic power.

Josh Wegman: Honestly, none concern me. Machado, Seager and Correa are all studs. Correa has the most to prove out of the three, but I think he has a great season. Fantasy owners should be pleased if they manage to scoop up any one of these players.

Who has the best shot at being 2017's Trevor Story (pre-injury)?

Wilson: If you're looking for a late-round SS who has plenty of offensive upside, you could do worse than Chicago White Sox sophomore Tim Anderson. Anderson doesn't share Story's power profile, but he was a .300 hitter throughout the minors and he still hit nine home runs in 99 games last season.

Bisson: I'm not sure if I can get away with this, but I'm going to say nobody comes out of nowhere to become a top-5 shortstop option by season's end. The elite at the position are well-established, and there is shockingly little depth outside the top 15 options. Look for very little movement in the shortstop hierarchy this season.

Ghatak: St. Louis Cardinals SS Aledmys Diaz displayed some real pop last year, hitting 17 homers in 404 at-bats. Furthermore, his HR/FB ratio of 12.6 percent and Hard-Hit percentage of 31.5, leave room for improvement or a bit of luck. The Cardinals have a knack for identifying powerful bats, and Diaz seems to fit the mold once again.

Wegman: Atlanta Braves SS Dansby Swanson will get overlooked because Atlanta is in rebuilding mode, but he will be sandwiched in the two hole behind OF Ender Inciarte and in front of 1B Freddie Freeman - not a bad spot to hit. He doesn't have the power projection of Story, but it wouldn't be shocking at all if he hit .290 with 80 runs scored and 65 RBIs.

Can Toronto Blue Jays SS Troy Tulowitzki tap into his past glory?

Wilson: How about a maybe? No? Okay. I'll go with a cautious yes. His customary power returned in 2016 with an ISO closer to his career average (though still below). Tulowitzki returned from an injury-related absence on June 18 and from then on hit .280 with 16 home runs, and a K rate of 14.7 percent, which is below his career average. Further correction is possible.

Bisson: If all things were equal, I would give this question more credence. But Tulowitzki has less physical integrity than a Faberge egg, so I'm going to say no. The rigors of the position have taken their toll on the 32-year-old, who hasn't had more than 550 plate appearances since 2011. He'll be a nice source of homers and RBIs, but those 30-100-.300 days are long gone.

Ghatak: No. The real decline in Tulo over the past two years has been in his approach at the plate. He's swinging more than ever, especially at pitches outside of the strike zone. Even his contact rate at pitches inside the strike zone has dropped roughly six points since his hey-day with the Colorado Rockies. His decreased average and rising K-rate are here to stay.

Wegman: Can he be Colorado Tulo again? No. Can he be better than 2016 Tulo? Absolutely. All through 2016 spring training, he used a new leg kick timing mechanism. After a couple of at bats in the regular season he got cold feet and switched back to his vintage toe tap, which I believe threw off his timing and was the reason for his awful start. From May 10 and onward he posted an .820 OPS.

Who is the most underrated fantasy shortstop?

Wilson: While I still would never refer to San Francisco Giants SS Brandon Crawford as elite, he sure deserves better billing than he's getting. I ranked him as the 15th SS-eligible option, but I'm wondering if that's being too conservative. His batting average and contact has been steadily trending upward while his K rate has been trending down. He may not dazzle, but he's effective.

Bisson: Oakland Athletics SS Marcus Semien gets a bad rap because of his low batting average, but you won't find many 25-HR/10-SB options near his ADP. The homer total should regress, but even getting 20-25 longballs with double-digit steals in the 15th-17th rounds of standard drafts is terrific value. If your roster can absorb a sub-.250 average, Semien could be a steal.

Ghatak: Texas Rangers SS Elvis Andrus is tremendously consistent - a factor always underrated in fantasy. While fantasy owners fall in and out love with players each and every week, Andrus brings a steady stream of runs, RBIs, and steals. Pair him with a high-upside option and you'll be set.

Wegman: The aforementioned Tulowitzki. theScore's panel each had him ranked eighth, but FantasyPros has him listed as the 11th ranked SS, despite his pedigree and his power upside lacked by the position as a whole. The injury history is always a concern, but a veteran with his track record is a much safer pick than players like Diaz, Jean Segura and Addison Russell.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)

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