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3 fantasy stars who will regress because of how pitchers will attack them

Bob DeChiara / USA TODAY Sports

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When a hitter is called up to the majors, opposing teams won't know a whole lot about this player, unless it is a once-in-a-generation type prospect with insurmountable hype, like Washington Nationals OF Bryce Harper.

Sure, there's minor-league scouting reports, but those can only be taken with a grain of salt since minor league teams aren't game planning for each hitter like they do in the majors. Plus, the quality of stuff a minor-league pitcher possesses is obviously inferior compared to a major-league arm.

Here are three hitters who enjoyed success in 2016 but will be pitched differently in 2017. The adjustments pitchers will make against these hitters will lead to significant fantasy decline.

C Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Summary: Will see more change ups and splitters.

Draft advice: Pass on Sanchez and draft a catcher in the later rounds.

Auction advice: Nominate him early.

Sanchez burst onto the scene last season and hit 20 homers with a .657 slugging percentage in just 53 games. You can bet he will be approached with more caution in 2017 - especially considering he is the most prominent power source to be reckoned with in the Yankees lineup.

Here is a look at Sanchez's splits by month:

Month BA OBP SLG HR RBI K
Aug. .389 .458 .832 11 21 21
Sept. .225 .314 .520 9 21 35

As you can see, the power was still there in September, but the average and OBP plummeted while his strikeouts nearly doubled. This is quite concerning.

Part of the reason for this decline was his inability to lay off change ups and splitters. According to Brooks Baseball, Sanchez had a "very patient approach against breaking pitches" (sliders and curves), but an "exceptionally aggressive approach against off-speed pitches" (change ups and splitters).

Here is a breakdown of pitches Sanchez saw by month:

Month Hard Breaking Offspeed
Aug. 55.4% 34.1% 10.5%
Sept. 52.5% 32.1% 15.4%

Unsurprisingly, teams started adjusting to Sanchez, as he saw a five percent increase in off-speed pitches from August to September.

Sanchez can still be relied upon for his power from the catcher position, but he will not hit for a high batting average or post a high OBP unless he learns how to lay off change ups and splitters.

OF George Springer, Houston Astros

Summary: Will see more sliders and cutters.

Draft advice: Do not draft him anywhere near his ADP of 30.

Auction advice: Nominate him early.

Power-speed combinations like Springer seem to be overdrafted every year. In fact, his ADP currently sits at an outrageously high 30, per FantasyPros.

For starters, the speed portion of Springer's game is insanely overrated. He stole nine bases last year, but was caught 10 times. Don't expect him to be running too often this season.

Secondly, Springer will be pitched differently this season. Last year he graded -5.6 against cutters (second-worst in MLB) and -7.8 against sliders (10th-worst in MLB), per FanGraphs.

Despite his struggles against pitches breaking toward the end of his bat from right-handers (Springer is a right-handed hitter), he didn't see an abundance of them. He saw the 65th-most sliders (per pitch) and the 28th-most cutters in all of baseball last season.

Expect right-handed pitchers to take note of this for the coming season. Virtually every right-handed pitcher on the planet throws either a slider or a cutter. Springer should continue to mash lefties, but as a hitter who has always had trouble making consistent contact, it's nearly impossible to envision him finishing as a top-10 outfielder, which is where is he is currently being drafted.

IF Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers

Summary: Will see more four-seam fastballs up in the zone.

Draft advice: Draft at ADP with caution.

Auction advice: Nominate him early.

Villar enjoyed a breakout season in 2016, hitting .285 with a .369 OBP, 19 homers and led the league with 62 steals. Base stealers like Villar are becoming more and more rare in today's game. Combine this with positional versatility at 2B, 3B and SS and Villar is almost a lock to be a top-50 pick, but drafters need to approach with caution.

During Villar's breakout season, he hit .355 off sinkers, but only .244 off four-seam fastballs. This isn't surprising after looking at Villar's hot and cold zones on Brooks Baseball, where it is clear he destroys balls low in the zone, but struggles against pitches high in the zone.

This all makes sense too. A speedster like Villar has the ability to beat out any ground ball for a base hit. His 55.6 ground ball percentage was the sixth-highest in all of baseball last season. In order to minimize the chances of infield hits and keep his speed of the basebaths, expect pitchers to work up in the zone more this coming season, where he is susceptible to swinging and missing.

(Photos courtesy Getty Images)

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