Keeper Decisions: Serge Ibaka, Nerlens Noel & Ricky Rubio
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In part two of our Keeper Decisions series, we look at two forwards who moved at the deadline and an up-and-down point guard closing out the season on a hot streak. How those developments have changed their outlook going forward is the basis for the decision as to whether to keep or cut them.
PF Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors
Through 13 games with the Raptors, Ibaka is yet to play alongside PG Kyle Lowry. One would assume it has been a statistical advantage, as Ibaka's maintained a 20.9 percent usage rate with Toronto. Assuming the trio of Lowry, Ibaka, and SG DeMar DeRozan return next season, a regression to his career rate of 18.0 or lower could be on the horizon.
While a leading part of Ibaka's past fantasy value was tied to his shot blocking ability, it has been on the decline for quite some time. Over the past two seasons, Ibaka has averaged 1.8 blocks per game. In the five seasons prior, Ibaka never averaged fewer than 2.4. His career-high of 3.7 back in 2011-12 is long gone.
Furthermore, Ibaka's field-goal percentage has also been plummeting over recent years. Through his first five seasons with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Ibaka shot a stellar 54.7 percent. But with this year's mark of 48.2, Ibaka could soon register his third straight season below 50 percent.
Verdict: CUT
PF/C Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks
If waiting on Parker's breakout wasn't hard enough for fantasy owners, the development of PF/C Nerlens Noel may go down as one of the most chaotic. Though he'll enter the 2017-18 season at just 23-years-old, Noel has played only 180 games since being drafted in 2013.
Noel's career per-36 numbers of double-double upside with two blocks and two steals a night are what many are still chasing in fantasy. Assuming a healthy 2017-18 season with little frontcourt competition, Dallas is where those numbers will develop.
In nine games since joining the Mavericks, Noel has averaged nine points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 23 minutes. He has posted two double-doubles, including a 15-point, 17-rebound performance. With a fantastic 60.6 FG% this season, the potential for four-category contribution is still there.
Verdict: KEEP
PG Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
It has been a tale of two halves for Rubio, who has exploded since the start of 2017. For fantasy owners who traded him away during his early-season disappointment, you've surely been regretting it. The diminutive guard has averaged 12.4 points, 10.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.8 steals since the start of the new year. His 41.1 FG% is another notable improvement this season.
Thanks to the improvement, Rubio has 16 double-doubles in his past 31 games. We've seen flashes of this upside before and some will surely point to the loss of SG Zach LaVine as a driving force behind Rubio's resurgence. Rubio's usage rate has jumped about four percentage points since his January mark of 16.6.
With double-doubles in just over half of his past 31 games, it's hard to say Rubio hasn't made his own individual progression. At 26-years-old, Rubio seems to be finally be entering his prime after six seasons of frustrating volatility.
Verdict: KEEP
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)