Bubble Watch: TCU trying to end lengthy tournament drought
As we inch closer to March Madness, we turn our attention to the bubble and the respective teams living on it. Every Friday for the rest of the season, theScore will provide a look at teams sitting on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA tournament.
TCU 15-7 (4-5) RPI: 41 SOS: 36
The Horned Frogs' midseason backslide mercifully came to an end on Wednesday night in the Little Apple. Their six-point overtime victory over Kansas State was just what the doctor ordered with two home games coming up against fellow bubble brethren Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. After storming out to an impressive 11-1 start, Jamie Dixon's squad has failed to put up much of a fight defensively since the calendar turned to 2017. If Dixon wants to return to the Big Dance, he'll need his team to clamp down on opponents the way they did earlier in the season when they limited teams to just 63 points per game during their first 12 contests.
Road trips to Baylor and Kansas this month present golden opportunities for TCU to nab a marquee victory, but fans in Fort Worth should circle Feb. 25th on their calendars when West Virginia comes to town. A home win over Bob Huggins and company could send TCU to the tournament for the first time since 1998.
Michigan 14-8 (4-5) RPI: 62 SOS: 54
The "Little Brother" chants added insult to injury on Sunday afternoon in East Lansing, as the Wolverines fell to Michigan State by eight points at the Breslin Center. That loss, its fourth in seven games, also signaled that Michigan is losing its grip on an at-large bid. What's confounding is that despite their excellent effective field-goal percentage (55.8 percent, 19th), the Wolverines' average margin of victory is just 8.6 points per game (45th). What's more is that Michigan is scoring 74.4 points per game, the highest average since John Beilein guided the Maize and Blue to the Final Four in 2013, yet they can't seem to differentiate themselves from a flagrantly mediocre Big Ten.
With just a single win against the RPI top 50 (SMU), Michigan has a lot of work to do before Selection Sunday. Five of its last seven regular-season games come on the road, which leaves little room for error if it wants to return to the Field of 68 for the second straight season.
Seton Hall 13-8 (3-6) RPI: 45 SOS: 41
Speaking of teams losing momentum, the Pirates are taking on water in the Big East. Losers of five of its last six, Seton Hall is in desperate need of another win over a ranked opponent. The Dec. 12 triumph over South Carolina looks better and better which each passing victory for the Gamecocks, but it won’t be enough on its own to sway the committee in six weeks.
Luckily for fans in South Orange, the Big East will afford SHU plenty of opportunities to notch a splashy victory before Selection Sunday. Both Creighton and Villanova visit Newark in mid-February and the Pirates set sail for Indianapolis to play Butler in their regular-season finale. If Kevin Willard's team can win two of those contests and avoid an early exit at Madison Square Garden, it should feel pretty confident about returning to the Big Dance in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1994.
Wichita State 20-4 (10-1) RPI: 78 SOS: 260
The Shockers may be this year's Saint Mary’s, which speaks both to their overall quality and their unfortunate reliance on an automatic bid. Just like the Gaels in 2016, Wichita may be on the outside looking in should it fail to come out on top of this year's "Arch Madness" in St. Louis.
The Missouri Valley appears to run through Illinois State in 2017, and the Redbirds have already handed WSU one of its four losses this year. With zero wins in the RPI top 100, Saturday's MVC showdown between Illinois State and the Shockers could be a de facto at-large elimination game. That makes for great TV on Saturday night, but a bad night for the loser on Selection Sunday.
If you don't have a dog in the fight and simply want to see high-quality basketball in March, rooting for WSU is the way to go. Gregg Marshall's offense creates the kind of ball movement that makes all five players on the floor a threat. Their team features seven players who shoot better than 36 percent from downtown.