Bracketology: Gonzaga, Louisville, Villanova, Kansas claim top seeds
Every Monday, for the remainder of the season, theScore will present a look at how the upcoming March Madness tournament will shake out with a prediction of the bracket. This will rank teams 1-16 in each of the four regions, and include the potential opponents for the tournament-opening First Four.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) North Dakota
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Clemson
The Jayhawks joined Baylor, Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Virginia in the top-10 graveyard this weekend. In the end, “Shake-up Saturday” did little to reshuffle the top-seed line. KU has the starting five to cut down the nets in Phoenix this April, but it’s worth monitoring Carlton Bragg Jr.’s legal troubles. If he is able to return in time, Kansas would clearly have the depth necessary to win it all.
The Flyers have had bad luck in close games, posting a 3-4 record in contests decided by five points or less. One of those losses came against Saint Mary’s (CA), a four-point home defeat with Kendall Pollard sidelined. With the senior in the lineup, Dayton is 13-3 and a danger to make a run this March. Clemson hasn’t made the second weekend of the NCAAs in 20 years.
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Akron
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Valpo
Oh, what could have been for Creighton in 2017. The Bluejays seemed like a legitimate threat to dethrone Villanova in the Big East before Maurice Watson Jr. tore his ACL. Without its floor general, CU will be lucky to secure a top-six seed once it’s all said and done. Akron is trending toward a 12-seed, which could set them up as a Sweet 16 sleeper. The Zips’ Isaiah Johnson is one of the nation’s best-kept secrets.
Wisconsin is in control of the Big Ten in a down year, but don’t confuse the conference’s struggles with Wisconsin’s. The Badgers are a veteran team with arguably the best frontcourt duo (Ethan Happ, Nigel Hayes) in the nation. Valpo’s Alec Peters will have his hands full for 40 minutes before he turns his attention to the NBA draft.
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Wichita State/Miami
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Belmont
Hello, Wichita State! The Shockers needed a signature win and they got it Saturday night. WSU obliterated Illinois State on national television 86-45. A potential Round of 64 meeting with Notre Dame could provide fans with an excellent up-tempo contest. The two programs combine to average 160 points per game.
Belmont is a veteran team led by a legendary mid-major head coach. Rick Byrd has 663 career wins at Belmont and seven Big Dance appearances. If his team can continue to protect the basketball, it could give West Virginia a real game. The Mountaineers will look to speed things up to create second-chance buckets (14.3 per game, first) and force Belmont to play this game in the 80s. If West Virginia does make it a helter-skelter game, the Mountaineers will win going away.
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Indiana
(2) UNC vs. (15) Bucknell
After promising starts to the season, both Indiana and Xavier have been slowed by injuries. Indiana’s big man, Thomas Bryant, will make things difficult on the X-Men inside, but the Hoosiers’ ceiling just isn’t that high with OG Anunoby done for the season. Chris Mack has guided Xavier to the Sweet 16 three times since 2010, but doing it this year would represent his best coaching work yet now that his point guard, Edmond Sumner, is out for the season.
North Carolina appears to be right on the edge of being an elite team in 2017. When the Tar Heels' 3-pointers are falling, they’re nearly unstoppable, but it’s their relentlessness on the offensive glass that gives them a high floor entering March Madness. Their 13-point win over Florida State illustrates that - UNC shot just 42.5 percent from the floor but grabbed 21 offensive rebounds.
South Region
(1) Louisville vs. (16) Sam Houston State
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Michigan State
Louisville is the beneficiary of a wild Saturday for the top teams. In even better news for the Cardinals, Quentin Snider is set to return next week. When its point guard dishes out four or more assists, UL is undefeated this season.
Arkansas and Michigan State are heading in different directions with conference tournaments a month away. Tom Izzo and company need a signature win to go along with a steadily improving at-large resume. Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland await the Spartans in the coming weeks, so there won’t be a shortage of opportunities to impress the committee. Arkansas, meanwhile, inexplicably lost to Missouri by five and now enters the meat of its SEC schedule with defensive questions.
(5) Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. (12) Illinois State
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Vermont
Saint Mary’s has been mowing down the competition this year behind its brilliant shooting. The Gaels are in the top five of numerous shooting metrics, most notably their effective field-goal percentage (58.5 percent, third). They’ll need to shoot the lights out Saturday night if they hope to upend WCC heavyweight and AP No. 1 Gonzaga. Illinois State has to pick itself up off the mat after getting nearly doubled by Wichita State. Despite the setback, the Redbirds will still be a tough out in March because they play a methodical style that nearly eliminates fast-break opportunities.
UCLA’s dynamic offense has folks in L.A. thinking Final Four, but it will be the Bruins' defense that actually gets them to Phoenix - or sends them packing on the first weekend. Opponents are shooting a gaudy 36.5 percent from long range and are keeping the Bruins off the offensive glass. Steve Alford's squad collects just 8.1 offensive boards per game (236th). The Bruins host Oregon at Pauley Pavilion before heading south to Tucson this month, two key Pac-12 battles that will test UCLA’s defensive resolve. If the Bruins' defense holds up against the Ducks and Wildcats, they’ll certainly have enough to win six in the Big Dance.
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Michigan/TCU
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Georgia Southern
Sindarius Thornwell is rated as the nation’s most impactful guard on the defensive end by Value Add Basketball. He’s averaging 2.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per game, and when he’s in the lineup the Gamecocks are 16-1. According to BracketMatrix.com, a site that aggregates the top bracket predictions online, TCU and Michigan are the last two teams to make the Field of 68. Cal, Tennessee, and Seton Hall are all hoping to jump the Horned Frogs and Wolverines in the coming weeks.
Virginia would be happy to avoid Syracuse for the rest of the season. The last two times the Wahoos blew double-digit, second-half leads, they did it against the Orange. There won’t be much time to mope with Rick Pitino and Louisville visiting Charlottesville on Monday. Georgia Southern is the best team in a top-heavy Sun Belt and could throw a scare into a top seed.
(7) SMU vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Arizona vs. (15) UNC Asheville
K-State strengthened its at-large case by dropping its second top-10 team of the season Saturday. Knocking off WVU at the Octagon of Doom is one thing, but going into Waco and stealing a win is another thing altogether. SMU is undefeated against RPI teams outside the top 80, but just 3-4 against teams inside it. Beating Cincy on Sunday is critical if the Mustangs hope to become a top-six seed.
Arizona ran into a buzzsaw in Eugene, but that shouldn’t dampen its postseason hopes. Allonzo Trier’s return gives the Wildcats the kind of depth that should at least send them to the second weekend of the Big Dance. In this scenario, they’d face UNC Asheville - a skilled mid-major with two guards averaging over 15 points per game - in the Round of 64.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) UC Davis/Texas Southern
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) Iowa State
Gonzaga, ranked No. 1 in the nation, is still seeking respect. Its Saturday night showdown with Saint Mary’s can afford Mark Few and his program the opportunity to all but secure the school’s second No. 1 overall seed. The most interesting stat associated with the Zags is the fact they’re winning by an average of 23.7 points per game, the largest margin since Duke in 1999 (24.7, national runner-up). Pray for the play-in winner.
Red-hot Iowa State won’t spend much time on the nine-seed line if it keeps rolling. The Cyclones' upset of Kansas demonstrated how dangerous they can be when they get going from deep. They buried a school-record 18 treys against the Jayhawks and showed their ceiling is incredibly high for a team that was on the bubble just a week ago. Minnesota feasted on lousy teams early in the season and has wilted against quality opponents. Luckily for Richard Pitino, the schedule is very forgiving down the stretch, save for a pair of road trips to College Park and Madison.
(5) Florida vs. (12) Nevada
(4) Butler vs. (13) New Mexico State
The Gators leapfrogged Kentucky in the SEC pecking order thanks to a convincing 22-point victory at the newly renovated O’Dome. Mike White finally has a signature win. It’ll be interesting to monitor how Florida responds now it controls its own destiny in regards to the SEC regular-season crown.
Butler’s eight-point home win over Villanova remains one of the best wins by any program this season. The Bulldogs rarely beat themselves, turning the ball over just 10 times per game, the fourth-lowest total in DI. The Aggies could even the playing field by killing Butler on the glass. NMSU is one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams, nabbing extra opportunities on 36.8 percent of missed shots.
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Oklahoma State
(3) Oregon vs. (14) East Tennessee State
Caleb Swanigan gives Purdue a chance to beat just about any team in the country. The throwback big man averages nearly 13 rebounds to go with his 19 points per game and he’s capable of stepping out to 25 feet. Oklahoma State, fresh off a thrilling upset of WVU, has the kind of guard play that is vital to a deep March Madness run. Jeffrey Carroll and Jawun Evans could play their way into the first round of the NBA draft.
The Ducks made a massive statement Saturday in Eugene. Oregon boat-raced the Wildcats by 27 and showcased its disruptive defense in the process. T.J. Cromer leads an ETSU team that beat Mississippi State this season and nearly upset Tennessee.
(7) USC vs. (10) Marquette
(2) Baylor vs. (15) North Dakota State
UCLA continues to grab headlines in La La Land, but don’t be surprised if it’s the Trojans who make a deeper run in the NCAAs next month. USC’s style of play is a pleasure to watch. The Trojans shot nearly 37 percent from long range and have four starters who average 12 or more points per game. Marquette sees that offensive balance and raises: The Golden Eagles' roster boasts six players who average double digits.
Baylor had a tough week, dropping a back-and-forth grudge match in Lawrence and then completing the Sunflower State two-step with a two-point loss at home to K-State. The Bears get another crack at KU in two weeks, but their chances of breaking the Jayhawks’ Big 12 title streak took a big hit this week.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) VCU
Villanova isn’t playing the same kind of defense that helped it win the national title last spring, which could make a matchup against NCCU’s Patrick Cole fairly entertaining. The HBCU superstar averages 20.6 points, 7.3 assists, and 9.3 rebounds per game against Power 5 conference competition. Matching Josh Hart, a Naismith contender, shot for shot could add some intrigue to the 1-16 game.
The Hokies and Rams haven’t met on the hardwood since 1999, which would make this Commonwealth contest all the more interesting. VCU’s “Havoc” defense isn’t quite as suffocating as it was when Shaka Smart roamed the sidelines in Richmond, but the Rams still tally 8.5 steals per game. Virginia Tech has revved up its offense in Buzz Wiliiams’ third season in Blacksburg. The Hokies are averaging nearly 80 points per game, their highest mark since 2010.
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) UNC Wilmington
(4) Duke vs. (13) Monmouth
Cincy would be a tough draw for UNCW, one of the nation’s finest mid-majors. The Seahawks play tremendous perimeter defense, allowing just five 3-pointers per game (sixth). The Bearcats allow two more treys per game, but overall they own a more complete defense (61.5 ppg, ninth). That D has helped them reel off 14 straight wins and Mick Cronin’s program will be favored in the remainder of its regular-season contests.
Coach K’s return to the sideline appeared to be the shot in the arm the Blue Devils needed. Winners of three straight, Duke’s Thursday night tussle with the Tar Heels will go a long way in determining if they’re ready to rejoin the ranks of the elite or if their lack of a true point guard will continue to hamstring them in big games. Monmouth certainly doesn’t have an issue at the position. Justin Robinson is an electrifying playmaker who has orchestrated five upsets of Power 5 programs in the last two years.
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State
(3) Florida State vs. (14) Princeton
The Terps have been a pleasant surprise this season, thanks, in part, to their dynamic backcourt. When Melo Trimble gets to the line 10 or more times in a game, Maryland is 15-4 over his career in College Park. When Trimble drives aggressively, UMD is a real handful. MTSU shocked the world last year, knocking off Michigan State. Upset alert: The Blue Raiders returned their top two scorers from last year’s Cinderella team and added JaCorey Williams, an Arkansas transfer averaging 17 and 7.
The Seminoles have been difficult to figure out this season. FSU played six straight games against top-25 opponents and won five. It followed that stretch by dropping back-to-back games on the road by double digits to middling ACC opponents. If the Seminoles can get back on track, their trio of Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Dwayne Bacon, and Jonathan Isaac will be enough for a Final Four run.
(7) Northwestern vs. (10) Georgia Tech
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast
Northwestern is so close, the Wildcats can taste it. They are currently sitting 18-5, which means they’ll likely need four more wins to punch their first ticket to the Big Dance. That’s essentially a foregone conclusion, which means the stretch run is just about seeding for Chris Collins’ bunch. A tourney regular through the '80s and '90s, it’s actually been seven years since the Yellow Jackets have made the NCAA field.
Kentucky is struggling right now, but we’ve all seen this movie before. A loaded Calipari team struggles in February, finds its groove in the SEC tournament, and then makes a deep run in the NCAAs. Malik Monk won’t have another stinker like he did against Florida on Saturday night (4-of-14, 11 points). FGCU, formerly Dunk City, has become a March regular and can really shoot the rock (49.5 percent, eighth).