Predicting the March Madness matchups for each region
Every Monday, for the remainder of the season, theScore will present a look at how the upcoming March Madness tournament will shake out with a prediction of the bracket. We'll rank teams 1-16 in each of the four regions, and include the potential opponents for the tournament-opening First Four.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Davis
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) Virginia Tech
The Jayhawks need a breather. Their last five games have been decided by six points or fewer, including their one-point win over Texas Tech on Saturday. Unfortunately, their next two games come against West Virginia and Baylor. No rest for the weary in Lawrence. UC Davis has never made the Big Dance, and New Orleans hasn't won a tournament game in 30 years.
Northwestern and Virginia Tech may have moved off the bubble permanently after both programs captured impressive Sunday victories over conference heavyweights. The Wildcats have handed Wisconsin two straight losses in their series for the first time in 21 years. Not to be outdone, Virginia Tech edged out in-state rival Virginia in overtime. Buzz Williams' rebuilding process is starting to bear some serious fruit.
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Akron
(4) Duke vs. (13) Valpo
A Badger-Zip meeting in the Round of 64 would feature a frontcourt showdown sure to draw the attention of NBA execs. Akron's Isaiah Johnson is arguably the top mid-major center in the country, and Ethan Happ has quietly made a push for Big Ten Player of the Year.
It appears Duke is back in a big way. Grayson Allen has regained his confidence and the Blue Devils' five-game winning streak has erased the memory of their midseason swoon. A win in Charlottesville on Wednesday night would certainly keep the momentum going as Coach K and Co. eye a potential No. 2 seed down the line.
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Tennessee/Seton Hall
(3) Arizona vs. (14) Georgia Southern
Notre Dame waxed Florida State on Saturday, reminding the college basketball world that its ceiling remains very high. What the Irish lack this season is an impressive victory away from South Bend. They'll get one last opportunity to score an impressive road win March 4, when they travel to Louisville. Tennessee and Seton Hall have little room for error down the stretch as two of the last teams to make the field of 68.
Arizona has been somewhat difficult to pin down this season. The player most associated with their mercurial play has been Lauri Markkanen. The Finnish freshman averages more than 15 points and seven rebounds per game, but during losses those numbers drops to 11 and 5.3, respectively. His shooting percentage also takes a noticeable nose dive (49.2 percent to 32.1 percent).
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Michigan State
(2) Florida State vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast
Both Oklahoma State and Michigan State have turned it up a notch in recent weeks. Michigan State is a vastly superior team with Miles Bridges in the lineup, and, since his return from injury, the Flint, Mich., product has grown into one of the best scorers in the Big Ten. Bridges has shot 50 percent or better from the field in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have a dynamic playmaker of their own in Jawun Evans. The future NBA draft pick helped the Pokes capture their signature win of the season against WVU.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) NCCU/Mt. St Mary's
(8) Maryland vs. (9) TCU
Villanova is steamrolling through the Big East behind exquisite backcourt play. During their five-game winning streak, the Wildcats' duo of Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson is averaging a combined 32.6 points, 7.6 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. Villanova will be favored in all of its remaining games in the regular season, including the Feb. 22 rematch with Butler at The Ski Lodge.
Maryland's seed isn't a knock on the Terps, but on the Big Ten. This can also be seen in the committee's decision to not award Wisconsin with a top-four seed. TCU is an interesting test case for the committee because of the absence of any "bad" losses on its resume. It will have ample opportunity to secure one or two quality wins next week when facing Kansas and West Virginia in back-to-back contests.
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) Monmouth
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Vermont
Cincinnati's 15-game winning streak was snapped Sunday in Dallas. The Bearcats went ice cold from the field (34.7 percent) and only got to the line nine times against SMU. If they play like that against Monmouth, you can bet they'll be on the wrong side of the annual 12-5 upset. Monmouth's aggressive style of play translates to 18.4 points per game from the charity stripe (12th).
Lonzo Ball was a stone-cold assassin Thursday night against Oregon. The future lottery pick was making shots from the parking lot down the stretch. But it's not all on him, because the Bruins have five other players who also average double figures. To say Vermont and its suspect 3-point defense (35.8 percent, 214th) would be vulnerable is an understatement.
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Syracuse
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Belmont
Xavier and Syracuse are headed in different directions with less than a month to Selection Sunday. The X-Men were outclassed by Villanova in large part because they're without the services of Edmond Sumner. Syracuse, meanwhile, has two huge home wins to hang its hat on (Florida State, Virginia), and is just a game-and-a-half out of first place in the brutally competitive ACC.
If - and this is a big if - Kentucky finds a way to play average defense, it can win the national championship. Malik Monk is a player tailor-made for a breakout March Madness performance, and the overall roster has enough talent to win six straight when it matters most. The team also has the kind of defensive deficiencies that could open them up to a first-round upset. Belmont has the poise, experience, and shooting - the Bruins are the nation's best shooting team from two-point range (62.1 percent) - to ruin more than a few brackets.
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Illinois State
(2) Louisville vs. (15) UNC Asheville
Two teams from the Missouri Valley Conference? Sure, as long as Illinois State can make it to the "Arch Madness" finals, they should be on the right side of the bubble. Dayton's one-point win over Rhode Island on Friday severely damaged the Rams' at-large hopes. It also made a 5- or 6-seed a possibility for the Flyers.
Louisville has a manageable regular season slate before it heads up to Brooklyn for the ACC tournament. That's where it will carve out its seed. It's hard to imagine the winner of that tournament not getting serious consideration for a top seed, barring miracle runs by Syracuse or Georgia Tech.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) North Dakota
(8) USC vs. (9) Kansas State
Gonzaga cleared its last regular season hurdle without really breaking a sweat. The Zags' 10-point win over Saint Mary's puts them in line for a No. 1 seed even if they were to fall to them in the WCC finals. North Dakota is playing in a high-scoring, highly entertaining Big Sky conference that features four programs averaging more than 78 points per game.
Kansas State, historically a difficult out at home, has played well on the road this year, including a near-miss versus Kansas (thanks, refs) and an upset of Baylor in Waco. USC is in the middle of a three-game stretch against top-10 teams. If it can win against either UCLA or Arizona, consider its ticket punched.
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Middle Tennessee
(4) WVU vs. (13) Boise State
Creighton has done an admirable job without its starting point guard, and may have found a suitable replacement in Khyri Thomas. The sophomore has a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio in his last four games, and has been a real weapon from 3-point range over that span as well (55.5 percent). Middle Tennessee has two wins over teams in our projected field, but hasn't played a quality opponent in nearly two months. That makes it difficult to peg if they're capable of another seismic upset.
The Mountaineers have some head-scratching losses (Temple, Oklahoma) and a pair of jaw-droppingly impressive blowout wins (Baylor, Kansas). And after a first-round exit from the tournament last spring, the casual fan may have some lingering doubts. But consider this: West Virginia creates 13.6 extra scoring chances per game, which is far and away the highest total in the nation (North Carolina is the next best at 7.9).
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Michigan/Wake Forest
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Bucknell
It's still possible South Carolina is the best team in the SEC, but it'll have to prove it in a week when it travels to Gainesville to take on the Gators at the O'Dome. A season sweep of Florida would be particularly impressive after the Gators wiped the floor with Kentucky at home just a week ago. Michigan pumped life back into their at-large hopes with a pair of wins over Michigan State and Indiana. Similarly, Wake Forest has won three of its last four, but could come to regret its two-point loss at home to Duke last month.
Virginia hasn't been the same since it dropped a nail-biter to Villanova at the Wells Fargo Center in South Philly. Since then, they team's come unglued against Syracuse on the road and lost an overtime thriller to Virginia Tech. Is Bucknell the kind of team that could take advantage of the Cavaliers' slump? The Bison certainly have the track record, and they can really shoot the rock.
(7) Iowa State vs. (10) Wichita State
(2) Oregon vs. (15) North Dakota State
If Iowa State and Wichita State lock horns in the first round, make sure you don't miss that one. A track meet in the mid-80's would likely produce some wild momentum swings and throw a scare into Oregon before its second-round matchup.
The Ducks let one slip away at Pauley Pavilion, but all is not lost for Oregon. A regular season Pac-12 championship remains on the table, and the 11-point win against USC proves the Ducks aren't going to let one blown opportunity get into their heads. The Bison would probably give Oregon a decent game thanks to their balanced scoring and 3-point marksmanship (37.4 percent).
South Region
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Texas Southern
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) VCU
Johnathan Motley deserves more praise. He's increased his scoring average by nearly six points year over year, almost doubled his rebounding numbers, and has really improved as a low-post defender. If Scott Drew isn't the Coach of the Year, I'd be shocked. Texas Southern would have been a bigger threat if its best player hadn't quit the team to focus on the NFL draft.
Minnesota can trot out a starting five that averages 10 or more points each. VCU is more reliant on one man, specifically JeQuan Lewis. The senior leads the team in points, assists, and steals. Richard Pitino has an NIT championship on his resume, but he's still in search of his first win in the NCAA tournament. Will Wade scored his first Big Dance victory last year and nearly orchestrated an upset of Buddy Hield and Oklahoma.
(5) Purdue vs. (12) UNC Wilmington
(4) Butler vs. (13) New Mexico State
UNC-Wilmington can really fill it up, and the team shares the ball spectacularly. If it catches fire from long range, a surprise trip to the Sweet 16 wouldn't be out of the question. Purdue shares the ball even better, (18.8 APG, second) and has a pair of skilled big men that would tower over UNCW's frontcourt. Devontae Cacok is the Seahawks' tallest starter at 6-foot-7.
Butler's surprise inclusion as a 4-seed, despite six losses on its resume, is backed up by its trio of quality wins. The Bulldogs took down Arizona, Cincinnati, and Villanova already this season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better three-pack of wins. New Mexico State has let its grasp on the WAC slip a bit, opening the door for CSU Bakersfield.
(6) SMU vs. (11) Marquette
(3) Florida vs. (14) Princeton
The Mustangs' upset of Cincinnati was truly impressive, and just what their resume needed. The winning recipe begins and ends with defense. Teams can only muster 58.3 points per game against SMU. Marquette would be a fun test in the first round. The Golden Eagles average 82 points per game and are the nation's second-best 3-point-shooting team (41.9 percent).
The Gators are beginning to look like the Gators of old. After thumping Kentucky at home, they knocked off Georgia with ease and were workmanlike in their victory over A&M. Next week, they catch South Carolina and Kentucky in back-to-back games. If they clear that hurdle, a 2-seed could be the reward. Princeton hasn't lost since Dec. 20.
(7) St. Mary’s (CA) vs. (10) Cal
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Furman
The Gaels can't afford a Gonzaga hangover if they want to avoid their fate from 2016. The WCC should be able to produce two bids this season, but the committee hasn't shown the Gaels much love in years past. Cal continues to play well behind Ivan Rabb, but it'd be wise to target 22 or 23 wins if it wants to feel truly safe on Selection Sunday.
The Tar Heels couldn't stop Duke in the second half, but there's no time to feel sorry for themselves. North Carolina faces four top-20 teams in the next three weeks, including a home game against Duke to close out the regular season on March 4.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)