Bracket preview: Predicting the Round of 64
Want to play a bracket contest with a chance to win big money? Try theScore $100K Team Tourney Challenge! Download theScore app on iOS or Android and play today!
Programs are punching tickets all over the nation, which means that the Big Dance is right around the corner. Dunk City is back after Florida Gulf Coast bested North Florida at home for the A-Sun’s automatic bid. Winthrop, Jacksonville State, and Wichita State have joined the Eagles in the field of 68. There’s more madness to come this week with bubble teams battling and national powers jockeying for the top seeds.
In our final installment of bracketology this season, we examine everything from the First Four to the Final Four and all the potential upsets in between.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) UC Irvine
(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) Arkansas
(5) SMU vs. (12) UT-Arlington
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Akron
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Seton Hall
(3) Butler vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Xavier
(2) Oregon vs. (15) CSU Bakersfield
This region is stacked with potential Final Four dark horses.
Oklahoma State nearly upset the top-ranked Jayhawks at home on Saturday, further demonstrating how an elite point guard can elevate an entire team. The Pokes’ Jawun Evans has averaged 18.5 points and 8 assists in Oklahoma State’s last four games against ranked opponents. The Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis this week provides Wisconsin a chance to get back on track. The Badgers were 21-3 a month ago and had risen as high as seventh in the AP poll.
A potential semifinal matchup with Purdue could give them the marquee win they’ve been missing all season.
The Sun Belt is a highly competitive mid-major conference whose champions have NCAA tournament wins in back-to-back seasons (Georgia State ‘15, Little Rock ‘16).
UT-Arlington has the kind of team to make it three in a row.
Kevin Hervey is a rare mid-major stretch four who has recorded a double-double in five of his last six games. Butler and Notre Dame met in the Round of 32 back in 2015, producing a memorable overtime thriller at the Consol Energy Center in downtown Pittsburgh. A rematch would be equally intriguing in 2017.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Mt. St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(8) Miami (FL) vs. (9) Michigan
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) UNC Wilmington
(4) Duke vs. (13) Vermont
(6) Iowa State vs. (11) Syracuse/Providence
(3) Arizona vs. (14) South Dakota State
(7) Maryland vs. (10) Marquette
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Siena
Kentucky has turned the corner at the right time. Winners of eight straight, the Wildcats are headed into the SEC tournament with a ton of momentum.
The fact that they were easily able to close out Texas A&M on the road during one of Malik Monk’s down games is a great sign.
Speaking of teams going up, Iowa State boasts wins over Kansas and Baylor and the Cyclones are a top-ten shooting team from both three-point range and the foul line. Steve Prohm’s team has what it takes to get to Glendale.
Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin has been outspoken about the Selection Committee’s true motivations, so it’s safe to say a potential second round matchup against Duke won’t sit well with the veteran coach. If the Bearcats are caught looking ahead, UNC Wilmington has more than enough firepower to pull off the upset.
Five of Cronin’s eight Big Dance appearances have ended with a first-round exit. UNC-Wilmington has four starters who average 12 or more points per game and their head coach, Kevin Keatts, is in line for his third straight CAA Coach of the Year award.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) North Dakota
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Wichita State
(5) Minnesota vs. (12) Middle Tennessee
(4) Florida State vs. (13) Princeton
(6) Creighton vs. (11) Kansas State/Wake Forest
(3) Florida vs. (14) East Tennessee State
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Michigan State
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Jacksonville State
Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham both scored in double figures during their Round of 32 loss to Wichita State two years ago. You can bet that revenge will be on their minds should they run into the Shockers again.
Wichita has won 21 of its last 22 and tore through the MVC tourney like a force of nature. They’re far from an average nine-seed. A Minnesota-Middle Tennessee draw would be a fantastic game. Minnesota is playing its best basketball in nearly two decades and Middle Tennessee has a trio of scorers that would make any major program jealous. Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams has been particularly impressive (17.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg).
Quentin Snider is the key cog in Rick Pitino’s offense. When the junior point guard scores more than 15 points, Louisville is undefeated. Even if he plays his best, the road to the Final Four is anything but tailor-made for the Cardinals. Florida, Dayton, and Michigan State all present difficult challenges.
Dayton entered the season with a decent amount of hype, but after a slow 2-2 start, the Flyers fell off the national radar. Now that they have the full lineup at their disposal, Archie Miller’s starting five is good enough to make an Elite 8 run as they did back in 2014.
South Region
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Northern Kentucky/New Orleans
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) VCU
(5) Virginia vs. (12) Nevada
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Bucknell
(6) St. Mary’s (CA) vs. (11) Vanderbilt
(3) UCLA vs. (14) Winthrop
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) USC
(2) Baylor vs. (15) Texas Southern
The Tar Heels continue to struggle on the road, but it’s hard to argue with just how dominant they’ve looked in the past month, particularly in the front court.
It will take a special team to challenge North Carolina on the glass, but Purdue and its Naismith finalist Caleb Swanigan could be that team. That is, of course, if Purdue can avoid a third straight first-round exit. A matchup with Bucknell, a program with a rich history of upsets in March, wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence in West Lafayette.
The bottom half of this projected region would be a lot of fun to watch. A second round matchup between Baylor and South Carolina could be a defensive clinic with Baylor dominating the block and South Carolina causing all kinds of defensive havoc out on the perimeter.
Then there’s the potential for a Golden State grudge match between UCLA and Saint Mary’s. Lonzo Ball has made Bruin games appointment television and the Gaels are so insanely efficient that if this game wasn’t a memorable affair I’d be shocked. Before that potential Round of 32 meeting, don’t miss Winthrop’s Keon Johnson. The five-foot-seven dynamo has five 30-plus point scoring performances in his last 12 games.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)