March Madness Sweet 16: Best bets for the West Region semis
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Thursday's games feature a clash in styles and just the fourth national championship rematch in NCAA Tournament history. And that's just the East Regional semifinals.
Ever since Selection Sunday, it's seemed like the top seeds in the West have been on a collision course. With one more round before a potential clash between North Carolina and Arizona, Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry give their best bets for each semifinal matchup.
(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona (-7.5, 151.5)
Sam's best bet: Arizona (-7.5)
Arizona has a top-10 defense and offense, according to KenPom. The Wildcats are a prolific shooting team and rebound exceptionally well.
But this is more about Clemson, which has exceeded expectations and can't compete with Arizona. The Tigers have won two outright games as underdogs to get to the Sweet 16, but they defeated a vastly overvalued New Mexico group and then upset a somewhat injured Baylor squad.
Clemson's run will end Thursday, and it could be a blowout. Its defense won't stop Arizona's efficient offense. While the Tigers attempt more threes, they don't make them at a high rate.
The Wildcats are top 20 in the nation in 3-point percentage. If they got hot from deep - Clemson isn't particularly stout at defending the three - it could get ugly.
Matt's best bet: Clemson (+7.5)
I'm on Arizona to win the West and will let that ride. However, I don't have the same faith as Sam that the Wildcats are better than 50% to cover a betting line over two possessions.
Arizona got away with dumping too many possessions on unnecessarily difficult plays against a less-talented Dayton group. The Wildcats were also fortunate to cover the spread Saturday due to the Flyers' late fouling. Arizona is slightly overvalued in the market, while Clemson is underrated as the lone moneyline underdog to win twice this tournament. With a fair line of -6, there's a bit of value on the Tigers to keep this close.
(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina (-4.5, 173.5)
Matt's best bet: North Carolina (-4.5)
A projected 89-84 score based on this market would require the Tar Heels to score 51.4% of the game's points to cover the spread. It suggests a pace that North Carolina, with its various weapons, should be comfortable with.
Alabama has a 92% "Rim-and-3 rate" via ShotQuality. However, Nate Oates' scheme falls apart when the Crimson Tide don't make their attempts from deep. Here are Alabama's outside shooting numbers in its NCAA Tournament games versus Power 5 conference opponents under Oates:
| YEAR | GAME (Score) | 3-PT SHOOTING |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | vs. Maryland (96-77 win) | 16-for-33 |
| vs. UCLA (88-78 loss) | 7-for-28 | |
| 2022 | vs. Notre Dame (78-64 loss) | 8-for-24 |
| 2023 | vs. Maryland (73-51 win) | 6-for-21 |
| vs. San Diego State (71-64 loss) | 3-for-27 |
Other than its 2021 win over Maryland, Alabama has shot 24-for-100 from beyond the arc against teams even remotely close to its quality.
The Crimson Tide might find their stroke from deep, but that should be considered an outlier rather than the expectation. In 2021 and 2023, Alabama got to the Sweet 16 thanks to a top-three KenPom defense. This year, the Tide have played Charleston, which stylistically played into Alabama's hands, and Grand Canyon, which seemed incapable of taking advantage of yet another poor Bama shooting performance (8-for-31).
The 2022 team - upset in the first round - had an adjusted defensive rating of 92nd nationally. This group is ranked 101st. North Carolina should run roughshod over the Tide, at least enough for 52% of the game's points.
Sam's best bet: North Carolina to win the East region (+170)
I agree with Matt that North Carolina will escape Alabama to earn a trip to the Elite Eight. But I think the Tide's offense can keep it close. So instead of laying this number, let's take it a step further.
North Carolina has to win the next two games to win the region and cash this ticket. That means defeating Alabama on Thursday, then likely Arizona on Saturday. The line would likely be around a pick'em in a potential North Carolina-Arizona game.
I'd favor North Carolina's defense and veteran experience against Arizona. If Clemson wins, we'd earn even greater value on this bet.
For Matt and Sam's take on the East Region, click here.