Analysis: If history is any indicator, CFP favorites should be on high alert

We're currently in an era of analytics. From the Super Bowl to the Little League World Series, data is king. Not all statistics, however, are created equal. The glut of facts and figures that surround college football have almost made it more difficult to discern what will happen.

With enough selective cherry picking, it's fairly easy to make a compelling argument for each of the four programs in this year's College Football Playoff. Alabama's historic defense enters the CFP as the nation's top unit in numerous meaningful metrics (scoring, rushing, opp. yards/play, def. TDs). The Washington Huskies will take the field in the Peach Bowl with a top-10 scoring offense and defense (44.8-18.4) and the nation's second-best turnover margin (plus-1.5 per game).

If Ohio State were to meet Alabama in Tampa for the national title, you can bank on Urban Meyer's 6-0 straight-up record as an underdog over the past five years being bandied about by every sports outlet in America. And finally, Clemson is piloted by a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist and was ranked as the country's most efficient offense by Football Outsiders. The point is, statistical window dressing can make any of these teams look terrifying.

So if the statistical analysis of the teams can't be trusted, what can fans point to this New Year's Eve to sound smart before kickoff? The bowl games themselves actually paint a pretty clear picture of what can be expected. Both the Peach and Fiesta Bowls have a rich history of upsets. So many, in fact, that a prohibitive favorite walking away with a win feels a bit like an upset.

Start with the Fiesta Bowl. In the last 10 years, half of the games out in the desert have witnessed a defeat of a top-10 ranked favorite. The last two times the national championship was decided in the Fiesta Bowl, the underdog won outright (Ohio State '02, Tennessee '98). One of the sport's greatest upsets also took place in the 45-year-old bowl game. The Miami Hurricanes' infamous fatigue-clad arrival in Phoenix back in 1987 for the matchup dubbed "The Duel in the Desert" ended with a shocking 14-10 victory for Penn State. Needless to say, Ohio State shouldn't feel the least bit cocky as a three-point favorite in Glendale.

The Peach Bowl doesn't take a backseat to the Fiesta Bowl in terms of upsets. Underdogs have knocked off ranked favorites in six of the last 10 games played on the carpet inside the Georgia Dome. If you're hoping for a monumental upset from Chris Petersen's bunch, you can take comfort in the fact that three teams this century have entered the Peach Bowl as more than a touchdown underdog, and two of them proceeded to win their games outright by double digits (LSU '00, Houston '15).

Duke was the lone long shot that failed to notch a surprise victory, and it led Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M by 21 points before the Aggies mounted an all-timer of a comeback.

What's happened before in Glendale and Atlanta suggests that penciling Ohio State and Alabama into the championship game could be a mistake. At the very least, the history books should give folks in the Pacific Northwest a little bit of hope before their afternoon tussle with the Tide.