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40 Fantasy Facts - NL West Edition

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

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Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Consistency, thy name is Paul Goldschmidt. The 24 home runs may have been disappointing for a first-round first baseman, but Goldschmidt stole 32 bases, a career high, and hit .297 (which was somehow a dip). He is the only 1B who offers true five-category value in standard 5x5 leagues.
  • OF A.J. Pollock's 2016 was cut far too short as he mustered only 46 plate appearances. His four stolen bases came in a three-game stretch in late August and he didn't attempt a steal in seven September games. A similar production line to Goldschmidt is his upside as he hit .315 in 2015 with 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases.
  • If 3B Jake Lamb can figure out how to be even serviceable against left-handed pitching, he has a chance at being a huge breakout candidate. In 110 at-bats, he hit a paltry .164 against lefties. He hit .271 against RHPs, hitting 25 of his 29 home runs.
  • Like Pollock, OF David Peralta suffered through injuries limiting him to only 48 games in 2016. He still may be worth a flier in 2017 as the .251 batting average was worse than he had shown in the MLB beforehand. In his 2015 mini-breakout, Peralta hit 17 home runs, too.
  • Another late-round outfielder with power potential is Yasmany Tomas, who hit 31 long balls in 2016. He made strides in his contact, which may have led to his vaunted 25.0 HR/FB rate. Tomas limited his soft-contact rate to 14.9, and a similar season should yield positive results. He can be had for a pittance on draft day.
  • Was RHP Zack Greinke's 2016 as bad as it seemed? Compared to his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, yes. He missed time due to injury and failed to make a positive impact in his nine starts, after he returned. Greinke made four starts where he allowed at least seven earned runs, something he hadn't done since he played for the Los Angeles Angels in 2012. If nothing else, his 2017 shouldn't be as disastrous.
  • LHP Robbie Ray needs to cut down on the iffy command. If he can be more precise, he could be a top sleeper candidate in fantasy. He already showcased incredible strikeout potential with a 11.25 K/9 over 174 1/3 IP, but he was hardly more than a streaming candidate due to his 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
  • RHP Fernando Rodney was not as sharp after he moved to the Miami Marlins in a June trade, notching a 5.89 ERA in 36 2/3 IP with the Marlins. At 39 years of age, expectations can't be too high. He has always had trouble with command and has been a volatile bullpen arm for much of his career. Buyer beware when trying to find cheap saves.

Colorado Rockies

  • In case there was any doubt in 3B Nolan Arenado's ability, he doubled down on his 2015 season by hitting 41 home runs with a .294/.362/.570 slash line. He quietly improved his walk rate and struck out less often. The only thing he doesn't do is steal bases.
  • OF Charlie Blackmon, on the other hand, historically steals plenty. He did see a dip in 2016, swiping only 17 bases after nabbing 43 in 2015. Still, he hit a robust .324 and was on the cusp of 30 home runs. For him to return his second-round value, he'll need to steal a few more bags.
  • The knock against OF Carlos Gonzalez has been his inability to replicate his Coors Field success when on the road. This remained true in 2016. He hit .320 at home while only .276 on the road. He hit 11 more home runs at home and four more doubles, driving in 28 more runs in three fewer games.
  • OF David Dahl played in only 63 games, but he made an impact. His .315/.359/.500 slash line along with his seven home runs will get him drafted. If he can sustain his 21.5 percent line drive rate for an entire season, an extended session of success is likely.
  • The Cinderella story of 2016, for a time, was rookie SS Trevor Story. He hit 27 home runs in fewer than 100 games. The big concern is his propensity to strike out, something he managed to do in 31.3 percent of his plate appearances. Still, when he made contact, which was often enough, he made opposing pitchers pay.
  • It stands to reason if RHP Jon Gray pitched on most any other team, he'd be considered a bigger deal in fantasy. He struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings in 2016 and his 4.61 ERA seems high considering he didn't allow too many home runs. Gray throws four pitches and mixes them up often.
  • LHP Tyler Anderson accomplished the seemingly impossible by posting a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field compared to a 4.71 ERA on the road. This is going to be a difficult line to trust, but his 50.9 percent ground ball rate would have been within the top 15 in baseball if stretched over a full season, which would help his run prevention related to the long ball.
  • The Rockies had the worst bullpen ERA (5.13) in 2016 and greatly missed RHP Adam Ottavino, who has been penciled in as the team's setup man to begin the season. Ottavino was one of the few bright spots (2.67 ERA) when he was activated in July, so a full season will be paramount.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • While it's dangerous to put too much stock into a rookie's breakout, SS Corey Seager was nothing short of incredible. He finished 14th among qualified batters with a .308 batting average and mixed in some solid power with 26 home runs. He will be drafted with the expectation of a 2017 improvement, a mere repeat will be a disappointment.
  • Don't expect much to change in terms of 3B Justin Turner's ADP despite a very productive season. He's a perfect mid-round option as a complement to early talent or as a solid filler if you missed the position entirely. It took a full-time role for him to finally live up to his potential in L.A.
  • The days of 30-plus home runs are likely over for 1B Adrian Gonzalez who hasn't topped the plateau since 2010 -- his last with the San Diego Padres. He's still a great option to keep the batting average afloat, as he has never hit below .275 over a full season, including a .285 batting average in 2016.
  • OF Joc Pederson is turning 25 in April. No number is as relevant. His raw power has been compromised by his strikeouts. While his batting average was still unimpressive, almost all of Pederson's numbers improved in 2016. He hit more line drives and hit ground balls less often while also slightly cutting away the Ks. The hype is gone but the potential isn't.
  • Similarly, OF Yasiel Puig has lost almost all of his shine in fantasy and reality. It could very easily be an over-correction. When people expect greatness and get merely good (.263/.323/.416), it seems a lot worse than it is. If he is still around in the last couple rounds, he's absolutely worth a shot.
  • Are you willing to take a pitcher in the first round of drafts? The only one who fits the bill is LHP Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw walked only 11 batters in 149 innings. No qualified pitcher did better. No pitcher who completed at least 50 innings did better. He still struck out 10.39 batters per nine innings. Health is the only thing standing in his way.
  • Fellow LHP, Julio Urias had a nice debut which was statistically better than Kershaw's rookie season. He posted better walk and strikeout rates with a leaner ERA. While it would be insane to suggest Urias' career will follow a comparable trajectory, it's worth noting the hype has been justified through his first test.
  • New York Mets RHP Jeurys Familia may have finished with more saves, but was there a better closer than RHP Kenley Jansen? He allowed multiple runs in only three appearances, helping explain his 1.83 ERA. Only a handful of closers had a better K/9, and no full-season closer had a better walk rate.

San Diego Padres

  • After Goldschmidt, 1B/OF Wil Myers is your best chance for a 20-home run/20-stolen base first baseman. Myers accomplished this feat in 2016 with 28 apiece, hitting the majority of his home runs at spacious Petco Park. If you take him at his word in Dennis Lin's piece in the San Diego Tribune, Myers is consciously thinking of a 40/40 season.
  • After Myers, it's anyone's guess who will be remotely worth owning in fantasy. IF Yangervis Solarte provided decent streaming value, batting .286 with 15 home runs and 71 RBIs in only 109 games. In especially deep leagues he's a solid option, because he won't actively hurt you in any one category.
  • The Padres could push the speed envelope behind Myers with rookie OF Manuel Margot, and OF Travis Jankowski. Jankowski stole 30 bases in 2016, making up for his lack of power. He will likely lead off, which makes him a mixed league target in the waning rounds. Not many leadoff hitters will last as long.
  • Rookie OF Hunter Renfroe did as one does, hitting 30 home runs in 133 games in the Pacific Coast League. He followed it up by hitting four home runs in only 36 MLB plate appearances, all of which came at Petco. Some struggles will follow, especially when he gets a broader taste of off-speed pitches, but he could be a cheap source of power.
  • OF Ryan Schimpf made his debut as a 28-year-old in 2016, and there was good and there was bad. He hit 20 home runs in 89 games, driving in 51 runs. That's good! He hit only .217 while striking out in 31.8 percent of his plate appearances. That's bad! Only draft him if you have enough high batting average options to balance things out.
  • Though Petco is a pitcher's dream, don't expect RHP Jered Weaver to suddenly appear like he found the fountain of youth. Weaver averaged 84.0 mph on his fastball in 2016, hitting rock bottom on a decline which started when he was averaging 90 mph in 2010. Only R.A. Dickey (not known for his fastball) averaged a slower 4-seamer.
  • The Padres rotation is void of any obvious fantasy options, and it's possible no one in the rotation on opening day is even worth a chance beyond a desperation stream. RHP Jhoulys Chacin labored through 144 innings in 2016 with a little strikeout upside. Chacin is still best left to streaming or tournament daily fantasy lineups.
  • RHP Brandon Maurer is set to be the primary ninth inning option in San Diego. Even if the save opportunities are rare, Maurer could be a solid source of strikeouts. He struck out 72 batters in 69 2/3 innings. The 4.52 ERA wasn't great, but he did far better the season before. He only recently converted to a reliever.

San Francisco Giants

  • Buster Posey remains the gold standard for fantasy catchers even if he had a down 2016 season. A down year for Posey means slashing .288/.362/.434. Even if the power numbers remain subdued, you know you're getting stability from fantasy's thinnest position.
  • The power breakout has never come for 1B Brandon Belt, but he has developed into a more complete hitter. Belt had the lowest ground ball rate among all qualified batters in 2016 (26.3 percent), and he was a top-15 option in hitting the ball to opposite field making him mostly shift-proof. Like Posey, he has becoming an emblem of stability.
  • Before injuries cost OF Hunter Pence parts of each of the past two seasons, he had played at least 154 games in seven consecutive years, hitting at least 20 home runs each time. Spotting a trend? San Francisco is a team made of unspectacular hitters who just get the job done.
  • SS Brandon Crawford has joined the ranks as a key producer, though his value is felt more on defense. He's still a fine second choice, or even borderline number one if you go deep elsewhere. His batting average has been trending up, capping off at .275 last season.
  • If there's any massive question mark in the lineup, it comes in the form of 2B Joe Panik. Panik, however, may have been the victim of horrendous luck. He makes a ton of contact and actually walked more often than he struck out in 2016. A .245 BABIP helped weigh down his batting average to .239 after hitting .312 in 2015.
  • If you're set on taking a starting pitcher early, but Kershaw's health worries you too much to reach in the first round, LHP Madison Bumgarner isn't a bad alternative. Bumgarner has exceeded 200 innings in six consecutive seasons, never showing a sign of fatigue, and improving every year. He posted the highest K rate of his career in 2016.
  • RHP Johnny Cueto is a similar workhorse. Outside of an injury-shortened 2013, Cueto has consistently topped 200 innings. This kind of consistency is more valuable than a player who burns brighter for half as long. And don't forget, Cueto can strike batters out (198 in 2016) just not at the same clip as some of his contemporaries.
  • RHP Mark Melancon was the big free-agent get for the back end of the re-tooled bullpen. If there was something they were missing in 2016, it was reliability in the ninth. Since dipping his toes in closer's waters in 2013, Melancon has a 1.80 ERA in 290 innings. He made 47 saves in 2016 and allowed only three home runs and 12 walks. He's a rock.

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