How MLB managers can impact stolen base totals for fantasy owners

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There are two important things to consider when trying to anticipate base-stealing trends. The first is personnel. Does a team have players with the right combination of speed and timing to steal bases at a rate outweighing the negative impact of being thrown out?

Unless you're a professional scout, or even an amateur with a stop-watch, binoculars and spring training access, your best estimate of a player's raw speed potential doesn't mean much. Instead, we must rely on baseball's gate-keepers -- managers -- to tell us who has base-stealing potential.

While some players have earned enough trust to decide when to attempt a steal, the ultimate decision usually comes down from the manager. Managerial philosophy is the second and ultimately most crucial factor when it comes to projecting how much fantasy value a player can bring on the basepaths. When it comes to steals, the best predictor of future results is past success.

With this in mind, here are the five most steal-friendly managers in baseball last season:

*No longer with team

How do we know the Brewers' duo of 2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar, (62 SBs) and 2B/3B/OF Hernan Perez (34 SBs) bring elite fantasy value with their feet? Because Brewers bench boss Craig Counsel gave them the green light last year as the main cogs in baseball's most active team on the basepaths.

We can reasonably assume any player with above average speed will have an opportunity to attempt steals in Counsel's lineup and the same logic can be extended to other managers who have favored thievery in the past

For example, Andy Green's Padres attempted the third-most steals in the majors last season, despite mixed results. Look for some of their part-time players from 2016 -- OF Travis Jankowski and OF Manuel Margot in particular -- to profile as 30-to-50 SB players if they stick with the big league club for the entire season. There's a difference between a below-average, top-of-the-order hitter and a potential top-50 fantasy stud.

Other potential breakout speedsters who will be aided by managerial philosophy include: Brewers OF Keon Broxton and SS Orlando Arcia; and Reds 2B Jose Peraza.

On the other end of the spectrum are managers who seem to be opposed to stolen bases. Here are the teams which attempted the fewest stolen bases last season:

With some managers, a pattern of opposition toward stealing is clear. Bob Melvin's Athletics rank 22nd among all teams in SBs (and 28th in caught stealing) since he took over the reigns in 2011. Unless you're a well-above-average speed threat -- like then-in-his-prime OF Coco Crisp, for example -- Melvin isn't going to let you gamble with outs on the basepaths.

If newly-acquired OF Rajai Davis can't succeed at an elite clip, he's going to see his steal totals fall dramatically. Considering he was caught just six times in 49 attempts last season, maybe he will be effective enough to remain a threat for 40 SBs but there's plenty of evidence indicating Melvin won't hesitate to pull the plug on a player's steal attempts if the mathematical risk begins to outweigh the reward.

Other players who could see their 2017 speed numbers tail from previous levels include: Cardinals OF Dexter Fowler and 2B Kolten Wong; Mets 3B/SS Jose Reyes; Dodgers rookie OF Andrew Toles; and anyone who plays for Buck Showalter's Orioles.

Steals are an imperfect science but even a brief look at which managers have afforded their players the opportunity to steal will give a good idea of whose fantasy value could be cemented -- even by inefficient base-stealing -- and which managers' philosophy could cause a player's value to plummet.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)