Pacquiao vs. Thurman: Betting preview and picks
Manny Pacquiao and Keith "One Time" Thurman square off for the WBA super welterweight title Saturday night. Thurman is a +140 underdog to the 40-year-old Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KOs) despite being 29-0 with 22 knockouts.
As of Saturday morning, Pacquiao is listed as high as a -189 favorite, while Thurman comes in as much as a +150 underdog, according to ProBoxingOdds.com.
Money has been steadily coming in on Pacquiao since the odds first came out for the fight in April. William Hill opened with Thurman, the current welterweight champion, as a -140 favorite. However, bets quickly poured in on the popular "Pac Man," moving the line to Pacquiao (-150) and Thurman (+130).
While the odds have shifted to Pacquiao, SuperBook Race & Sports manager Derek Wilkinson said sharp money will come in on Thurman on Saturday night.
"We would have a small, five-figure loss on Pacquiao if it closed now," he said. "That's kind of where we want to be. We want to win on Thurman but we do expect sharp money to back him late."
Pacquiao has been impressive in his last two fights. After dropping a unanimous decision to Jeff Horn in 2017, Pacquiao rebounded to dominate both Lucas Matthysse (TKO) and Adrien Broner (UD).
DAZN's on-air analyst, Sergio Mora, said Pacquiao's last two wins are the result of smart matchmaking. He noted both Matthysse and Broner are heavy-footed, stationary fighters who didn't take advantage of Pacquiao's age. However, he thinks the younger Thurman presents a much tougher challenge for Pacquiao.
"I just don't see how the younger, stronger fighter can be the underdog here," Mora said. "If Manny Pacquiao still had his explosive legs, which he doesn't, then I could understand why he would be the favorite, but that's not the case. What made Manny great was his agility and speed, and that's the first thing to go on an aging fighter. I just don't see him having the legs to press the fight after the sixth or seventh round. That's when Thurman will start landing heavier shots that hurt Manny."
Thurman isn't concerned about being an underdog Saturday night. As a matter of fact, he plans to cash in. Thurman told ESPN's Dan Rafael that he plans to place bets on himself at the MGM sportsbook on a first-, second- (60-1), and seventh-round (40-1) knockout of Pacquiao.
"(Making the bets is) fun, it's playful, but it's a little bit part of my strategy," Thurman said. "I don't recommend it for every fighter, but I like it. Don't be surprised if Manny Pacquiao goes night, night."
Mora thinks Thurman has a good chance to collect on his bets, predicting "One Time" will KO Pacquiao in the eighth or ninth round. "I believe it's not only going to be Thurman that knocks him out, it's going to be Father Time," he said. "I sincerely think this is it for Pacquiao. He's been in way too many wars and it's taken a toll."
Picks
I'm with Mora here. I think Thurman wins by KO. As Mora pointed out, Matthysse and Broner are stationary fighters made for the older Pacquiao. Those wins have given Thurman value in the betting market. "One Time" is a bigger, faster fighter who will make Pacquiao look his age. Thurman had problems when Josesito Lopez pressured him, but I don't see Pacquiao being able to consistently duplicate that strategy, especially in the later rounds.
I'm taking Thurman (+140), but the real value is in the fight going under 11.5 rounds (+260) and "One Time" to win by KO (+700). Pacquiao has only been knocked out three times in 70 career fights, but I'm betting No. 4 comes Saturday night.