Predicting win totals for every American League team
It's that time of the year again.
Caesars Palace in Las Vegas opened up its MLB win totals for the 2019 season this week, offering bettors a chance to take early stabs with -110 prices on both sides of the numbers. So, despite the many players - including several stars - who are still on the unhurried free-agent market, here are our over/under picks for every team, beginning with the American League.
Los Angeles Angels - 83.5 (80-82 in 2018)
Another year, and another two-part question for the Angels: Will they stay healthy? And can they find pitching? The Halos' 1,801 games missed due to injuries in 2018 led the entire league, while the pitching staff's FIP and xFIP ranked No. 20 and 22, respectively. However, the team did make some high-ceiling additions with Matt Harvey and Justin Bour, and it should surpass the win total if Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani (as a hitter) stay healthy. This is all without mentioning perennial breakout candidate Kole Calhoun!
Recommended wager: Over
Houston Astros - 97.5 (103-59 in 2018)
The Astros were Pythagorean darlings last season, as their expected win number was 109 (!) after leading MLB in run differential but being the fifth-unluckiest team. So, with Houston getting a 12-game cushion between last year's expected total and this year's over/under - while still boasting a daunting lineup one through nine - we'll take it.
Recommended wager: Over
Oakland Athletics - 83 (97-65 in 2018)
Following a surprising season in which they surpassed their win total by more than 20 games, could the Athletics fall way back down to earth in 2019? The Sean Manaea injury doesn't bode well for the rotation, and opponents will soon learn to not take games for granted against a lineup full of scrappy line-drive hitters. Of course, watch us be wrong as this team winds up marching its way to 116 wins using the opener strategy while Billy Beane rips off 100 lat pull-downs in the Athletics' training facility a la Brad Pitt in "Moneyball."
Recommended wager: Under
Toronto Blue Jays - 76.5 (73-89 in 2018)
The Blue Jays might be the most fun team in the AL East, especially once Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is done hitting .536 at Triple-A and the organization snags an extra year of service time before calling up the potential superstar. Still, this is going to be another tough season on the pitching staff with a ton of matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox.
Recommended wager: Under
Cleveland Indians - 91.5 (91-71 in 2018)
The Indians were the fourth-unluckiest team in 2018 after finishing with a plus-155 run differential, although the latter stat was heavily skewed due to beating up on lesser competition in the AL Central. Corey Kluber trade rumors continue to swirl, but this will probably be another season that sees Cleveland pummel the division, which features three teams expected to win fewer than 74 games.
Recommended wager: Over
Seattle Mariners - 74.5 (89 in 2018)
The Mariners were the luckiest team in the majors last year, finished as one of the healthiest, shipped away some key pieces this offseason, and added pink decor to the stadium - all no-nos.
Recommended wager: Under
Baltimore Orioles - 59 (47-115 in 2018)
Congratulations to the Orioles, who are expected to lose six (!) more games than any other team in baseball. They won just 47 in 2018, and a bulk of those came while they employed Manny Machado. Meanwhile, Adam Jones is going to sign elsewhere, Chris Davis hasn't connected on a curveball since 2012, and the pitching staff might set the record for the most home runs allowed, given the lineups in the AL East.
Recommended wager: Under
Texas Rangers - 70.5 (67-95 in 2018)
The Rangers will need to slug their way to 71 wins given you can apparently only pitch for this team if you've undergone Tommy John or shoulder surgery since 2015. But that's nothing new for Texas, which is no stranger to relying on offense.
Recommended wager: Over
Tampa Bay Rays - 85.5 (90-72 in 2018)
In 2018, the Rays came up short in one-run games, handed eight wins to the Orioles, played just slightly below .500 ball versus both the Red Sox and Yankees, and look poised to snag a wild-card spot this time around.
Recommended wager: Over
Boston Red Sox - 95.5 (108-54 in 2018)
It's not easy to bet against a defending World Series champion that's bringing back virtually every player, but the Red Sox - who far surpassed their Pythagorean win total of 103 last year - ranked No. 3 overall in luck, finished 25-14 in one-run games, and went 52-24 in the AL East. It's going to get tougher in 2019.
Recommended wager: Under
Kansas City Royals - 69 (58-104 in 2018)
The Royals are comprised of players who are either past their prime or too young to count on, and others still who regressed in 2018. Despite a tiny bit of optimism after going 19-30 in one-run games, this team is simply short on talent.
Recommended wager: Under
Detroit Tigers - 67 (64-98 in 2018)
The Tigers moved rapidly from the penthouse to the basement in the AL Central, and at some point must figure out what to do with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and ace Michael Fulmer. It seems like an out to project two bad clubs from the same division to be bad again, but here we are.
Recommended wager: Under
Minnesota Twins - 84 (78-84 in 2018)
This feels like a bounce-back year for the Twins, who followed up a 2017 wild-card campaign with an underwhelming season in a subpar division.
Recommended wager: Over
Chicago White Sox - 74.5 (62-100 in 2018)
The rebuilding White Sox are two years removed from tearing it down and stuffing their prospect pool with oodles of talent. Some of those young players will contribute in 2019, and an early wager on the over could pay off if the Sox land Machado or Bryce Harper.
Recommended wager: Over
New York Yankees - 96.5 (100-62 in 2018)
The oddsmakers expect the Yankees to edge out the Red Sox, and it's easy to understand after New York added James Paxton to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, the lineup is the most daunting in the majors, and the Yankees likely aren't finished this offseason as they continue to duke it out with Boston.
Recommended wager: Over
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.