Everything you need to know about the NL East
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Any one of the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, or New York Mets may finish first in what promises to be an ultra-competitive NL East.
The Nationals have won the division four times over the last seven years, but the Phillies could be poised to claim their first division title since 2011. The last time that the Mets finished on top was 2015 when they made it all the way to the World Series. The Braves are looking to win consecutive crowns for the first time since 2004-05, which punctuated an incredible run of 11 straight. The lowly Miami Marlins, meanwhile, stand absolutely no chance and could easily finish with the worst record in the majors.
As Opening Day approaches, here's what you need to know about the NL East:
Atlanta Braves
2018 record: 90-72 (1st in NL East)
Payroll: $114,866,394
O/U win total: 84
World Series odds: 14-1
3-year trend: 2016 (5th); 2017 (3rd); 2018 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Freddie Freeman (4.2)
X-factor: Josh Donaldson
Prospect to watch: Mike Soroka (MLB.com: No. 24)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ender Inciarte (L) | CF | 2.3 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 4.1 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman (L) | 1B | 4.2 |
| 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | LF | 3.4 |
| 5 | Nick Markakis (L) | RF | 0.8 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies (S) | 2B | 3.7 |
| 7 | Brian McCann (L) | C | 0.8 |
| 8 | Dansby Swanson | SS | 1.6 |
Bench
| Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Flowers | C | 2.9 |
| Charlie Culberson | IF | -0.3 |
| Johan Camargo (S) | IF/OF | 1.1 |
| Adam Duvall | OF/IF | -0.1 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. could blossom into an MVP candidate in his first full MLB season. Freeman is one of the best first basemen in the game and the double-play combo of Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson should be solid in the field and provide pop in the bottom third of the lineup. If Donaldson can stay healthy - he only played in 52 games in 2018 - and recapture his old form, he could take Atlanta to another level.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran | R | 4.81 |
| Kevin Gausman | R | 4.10 |
| Sean Newcomb | L | 4.17 |
| Touki Toussaint | R | 4.37 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Arodys Vizcaino | R | 3.88 |
| Dan Winkler | R | 3.88 |
| Jonny Venters | L | 3.73 |
| Shane Carle | R | 4.20 |
| Jesse Biddle | L | 3.47 |
| Chad Sobotka | R | 3.99 |
| Max Fried | L | 3.58 |
| Wes Parsons | R | 4.01 |
| Luke Jackson | R | 4.08 |
The Braves are dealing with some injuries to their pitching staff heading into the season. Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, the team's No. 1 starter, is battling through elbow tightness and could be back at some point in April, leaving the fifth rotation spot up for grabs between Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, and Soroka. Potential future closer A.J. Minter continues to be out with shoulder issues, while Darren O'Day, another high-leverage reliever, is also on the mend and his timeline is unknown at this point.
Miami Marlins
2018 record: 63-98 (5th in NL East)
Payroll: $73,037,143
O/U win total: 66
World Series odds: 350-1
3-year trend: 2016 (3rd); 2017 (2nd); 2018 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Brian Anderson (2.8)
X-factor: Lewis Brinson
Prospect to watch: Sixto Sanchez (MLB.com: No. 27)
Winter report card: B
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Granderson (L) | LF | 0.5 |
| 2 | Brian Anderson | 3B | 2.8 |
| 3 | Neil Walker (S) | 1B | 0.8 |
| 4 | Starlin Castro | 2B | 1.5 |
| 5 | Garrett Cooper | RF | 0.1 |
| 6 | Lewis Brinson | CF | 0.8 |
| 7 | JT Riddle (L) | SS | 0.8 |
| 8 | Jorge Alfaro | C | 1.7 |
Bench
| Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Wallach | C | 0.4 |
| Martin Prado | IF | 0.1 |
| Miguel Rojas | IF | 0.5 |
| Rosell Herrera (S) | IF/OF | 0.1 |
The Marlins are in a full-blown rebuild and their lineup reflects that. Veteran bats like Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, and Starlin Castro will likely be moved during the season if they perform. Brinson turned heads this spring following an ugly 2018 campaign as the key piece in the Christian Yelich trade. Anderson could end up being the best player on this team - and is projected as such - after finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urena | R | 4.41 |
| Dan Straily | R | 4.84 |
| Trevor Richards | R | 4.11 |
| Caleb Smith | L | 4.00 |
| Pablo Lopez | R | 4.11 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | L | 4.41 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Steckenrider | R | 3.56 |
| Sergio Romo | R | 3.86 |
| Adam Conley | L | 4.01 |
| Tayron Guerrero | R | 3.81 |
| Tyler Kinley | R | 3.83 |
| Riley Ferrell | R | 3.91 |
| Austin Brice | R | 3.96 |
There isn't a whole lot to look at in terms of pitching. However, there could be a few diamonds in the rough as Trevor Richards, Caleb Smith, and Pablo Lopez have all thrown well during the spring. Drew Steckenrider is pegged to be the closer but he comes into the season with only six career saves and a Grapefruit League ERA this year that sits close to double digits. Sergio Romo, Adam Conley, or Rule 5 pick Riley Ferrell could challenge for the ninth-inning role if Steckenrider falters.
New York Mets
2018 record: 77-85 (4th in NL East)
Payroll: $162,339,092
O/U win total: 89
World Series odds: 22-1
3-year trend: 2016 (2nd); 2017 (4th); 2018 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Jacob deGrom (5.9)
X-factor: Robinson Cano
Prospect to watch: Pete Alonso (MLB.com: No. 51)
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo (L) | LF | 2.4 |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | 1B | 1.6 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano (L) | 2B | 3.3 |
| 4 | Wilson Ramos | C | 2.2 |
| 5 | Michael Conforto (L) | RF | 3.0 |
| 6 | Amed Rosario | SS | 2.1 |
| 7 | Jeff McNeil (L) | 3B | 1.5 |
| 8 | Juan Lagares | CF | 0.6 |
Bench
| Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | 1.2 |
| J.D. Davis | IF | 0.1 |
| Dominic Smith | 1B/OF | 0.0 |
| Luis Guillorme | IF | 0.0 |
| Keon Broxton | OF | 0.1 |
This Mets' lineup is missing some punch as Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, and Jed Lowrie are all dealing with injuries. Cespedes could miss the first half of the season as he recovers from multiple heel surgeries. New York is hoping Cano can still be a force offensively at 36 years old. Alonso, who has slashed .356/.387/.627 this spring as of Saturday morning, should be in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year if he makes the team.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | R | 2.94 |
| Noah Syndergaard | R | 3.52 |
| Steven Matz | L | 4.05 |
| Zack Wheeler | R | 3.86 |
| Jason Vargas | L | 4.30 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | R | 2.45 |
| Jeurys Familia | R | 3.25 |
| Robert Gsellman | R | 3.92 |
| Justin Wilson | L | 3.29 |
| Seth Lugo | R | 3.58 |
| Luis Avilan | L | 3.76 |
| Kyle Dowdy | R | 3.88 |
New York may own the majors' best starting rotation. DeGrom and Syndergaard are both aces, Wheeler is finally coming into his own, and Matz is still just 27 and owns a respectable 3.98 ERA for his career. Vargas, an All-Star in 2017, is a solid No. 5 who will look to bounce back from a disappointing 2018 campaign. The bullpen looks like a weapon with 2018 MLB saves leader Edwin Diaz on board. Add Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson, and the Mets should be feeling good with a late lead in games.
Philadelphia Phillies
2018 record: 80-82 (3rd in NL East)
Payroll: $140,437,462
O/U win total: 84
World Series odds: 17-2
3-year trend: 2016 (4th); 2017 (5th); 2018 (3rd)
Highest projected WAR: Bryce Harper (4.6)
X-factor: Nick Pivetta
Prospect to watch: Alec Bohm (MLB.com: No. 59)
Winter report card: A+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew McCutchen | RF | 2.8 |
| 2 | Jean Segura | SS | 2.4 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper (L) | LF | 4.6 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 3.5 |
| 5 | J.T. Realmuto | C | 3.8 |
| 6 | Odubel Herrera (L) | CF | 1.8 |
| 7 | Maikel Franco | 3B | 2.1 |
| 8 | Cesar Hernandez (S) | 2B | 2.0 |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knapp (S) | C | -0.1 |
| Scott Kingery | IF/OF | 0.4 |
| Aaron Altherr | OF | 0.0 |
| Nick Williams (L) | OF | 0.1 |
There is no shortage of firepower in Philadelphia in 2019. The Phillies' one-through-five hitters should cause a lot of headaches for opposing pitchers with two MVP awards and 14 All-Star Game nods between them. Harper will get almost all of the attention, but Rhys Hoskins could be primed for a monster season with plenty of protection around him. The 26-year-old has 52 career home runs in only 203 games.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | R | 3.58 |
| Jake Arrieta | R | 4.25 |
| Nick Pivetta | R | 3.99 |
| Zach Eflin | R | 4.61 |
| Vince Velasquez | R | 4.41 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| David Robertson | R | 3.26 |
| Seranthony Dominguez | R | 3.41 |
| Hector Neris | R | 3.60 |
| Pat Neshek | R | 4.49 |
| Adam Morgan | L | 4.00 |
| Edubray Ramos | R | 4.35 |
| Jose Alvarez | L | 3.85 |
| Juan Nicasio | R | 3.76 |
The rotation is led by a 2018 NL Cy Young finalist in Aaron Nola and the recipient of the 2015 award in Jake Arrieta. The 26-year-old Pivetta owns a career 9.9 K/9 rate so if he can find another gear, the starting pitching could really cause headaches for opposing lineups. Adding David Robertson to the bullpen provides a stable veteran presence to go along with the big arms of Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris.
Washington Nationals
2018 record: 82-80 (2nd in NL East)
Payroll: $195,950,991
O/U win total: 89
World Series odds: 18-1
3-year trend: 2016 (1st); 2017 (1st); 2018 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Max Scherzer (5.7)
X-factor: Victor Robles
Prospect to watch: Robles (MLB.com: No. 4)
Winter report card: A-
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Eaton (L) | RF | 2.2 |
| 2 | Trea Turner | SS | 4.6 |
| 3 | Juan Soto (L) | LF | 4.1 |
| 3 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | 5.1 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | 1.1 |
| 6 | Brian Dozier | 2B | 2.1 |
| 7 | Yan Gomes | C | 1.1 |
| 8 | Victor Robles | CF | 2.1 |
Bench
| Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Kurt Suzuki | C | 0.5 |
| Matt Adams (L) | 1B/OF | 0.4 |
| Wilmer Difo (S) | IF/OF | 0.2 |
| Andrew Stevenson (L) | OF | -0.1 |
Life without Harper shouldn't be too bad for the Nats. Anthony Rendon is primed for a big season entering his walk year. Adam Eaton and Trea Turner will score a bunch of runs as the table-setters for a deep lineup, with the latter likely to steal 50-plus bases. Juan Soto put up a .923 OPS as a 19-year-old and Robles could end up being the NL Rookie of the Year while replacing No. 34.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | R | 3.14 |
| Stephen Strasburg | R | 3.64 |
| Patrick Corbin | L | 3.53 |
| Anibal Sanchez | R | 4.30 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | R | 4.82 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Doolittle | L | 3.36 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | R | 3.13 |
| Kyle Barraclough | R | 4.04 |
| Justin Miller | R | 3.98 |
| Matt Grace | L | 3.85 |
| Wander Suero | R | 4.33 |
| Tony Sipp | L | 3.90 |
Like New York, Washington could very well have the top pitching staff in the game. Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, Stephen Strasburg has a career 3.14 ERA, (though he's only pitched 200-plus innings once), and Patrick Corbin finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2018. The addition of Trevor Rosenthal brings a big arm with closing experience to complement Sean Doolittle in the back end of the bullpen.
Payroll courtesy: Cots Baseball Contracts
Odds courtesy: Odds Shark
O/U projections courtesy: PECOTA
WAR/ERA projections courtesy: FanGraphs Steamer