NLDS betting preview: Dodgers vs. Nationals
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The two best starting rotations in the National League will go head to head in the NLDS, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals square off and attempt to get over their respective humps.
Los Angeles has represented the NL in the World Series in each of the last two seasons but has fallen short of baseball's biggest prize on both occasions. Meanwhile, Washington is still searching for its first playoff series win in franchise history.
Series odds
Oddsmakers aren't confident in the Nationals' ability to shock the Dodgers, who are -230 favorites to win the series. A bet on the underdogs would return double your investment.
Behind the numbers
After winning a franchise-record 106 games in the regular season, the Dodgers have their sights set on returning to the World Series for the third consecutive year, and winning it for the first time since 1988. They certainly have the roster to do it.
The Dodgers scored the most runs in the NL this season and allowed the fewest in the majors. Among fellow NL playoff teams, Los Angeles' pitching staff posted the best K/9, BB/9, and HR/9, and authored baseball's best team ERA during the regular season. It was also the only NL club with a FIP under 4.00 (3.73), supporting what the surface stats indicate.
There are questions about the bullpen, but hard-throwing youngsters Julio Urias and Dustin May will be used in relief throughout the postseason, providing a massive boost to an otherwise veteran group. Both have the potential to be crucial components to the Dodgers' playoff success.
In addition to rostering what is likely baseball's best pitching staff, the Dodgers can also hit. And they hit a lot. They led the NL in home runs, runs, slugging, and wOBA, and they did it with a BABIP that was below the league average, suggesting some of their numbers could have been even better. Los Angeles also struck out at the ninth-lowest rate, which is impressive for a team that hits for as much power as it does.
The Nationals are solid across the board, too, but their numbers pale in comparison to the Dodgers'. One advantage they do have, however, is that they struck out less frequently than any other NL playoff team. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner anchor a deep lineup capable of beating teams in a number of ways. The Nats put the ball in play and are incredibly aggressive on the basepaths, swiping more bags than any other postseason team.
Washington also possesses a lethal 1-2-3 punch in its rotation - Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin - capable of giving the Dodgers' front end - Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler - a legitimate run for its money. The Nationals' starting rotation posted the second-best ERA in the majors this season, behind only the Dodgers'.
Betting trends
The Dodgers have won their last three appearances in the NLDS, posting a 9-3 record over that time. They beat the Nationals 3-2 in the 2016 NLDS as the third seed, with Kershaw picking up his first career save to close out Game 5 in Washington. The Dodgers are 9-1 at home in NL postseason play over the last two seasons.
However, Washington actually split a four-game set in Los Angeles in May and comes into the playoffs as one of the best teams in baseball over the last four months, posting a 74-38 record since May 23. The Dodgers won their only series in Washington this season at the end of July.
Pick
It's tempting to buy into the narrative that the Nationals, by virtue of winning the wild-card game in typically thrilling October fashion, have got the monkey off their backs and are ready to make a legitimate run at the World Series. But there are simply so few holes in this Dodgers roster. They pitch well, hit well, field well, and are definitely well-managed. They have ice in their veins, as these first two rounds seem more like a dress rehearsal ahead of the final act.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.