AL West odds: Astros too talented to fade atop division

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If the MLB season commences this summer, it won't look like any we've seen, which could throw divisional races into upheaval. For the savvy bettor, that spells unique value in what will likely be a shortened slate.

Will an unorthodox season disrupt the Astros, who won 107 games last year and completed the three-peat as AL West champions? They're the third-shortest division favorites this season behind the Dodgers and Yankees, though the cloud of past ills hangs over Houston's season.

Here are the AL West odds and our favorite bets:

Best bet

Houston Astros (-250)

Let's start with the bad: Gerrit Cole is gone. Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch are gone. The Astros had about as bad of an offseason off the field as one can imagine, and they'll enter 2020 with a massive target on their back and a hole in their rotation. Can they handle the pressure and scorn?

With their lineup, they can. Houston led the league in OPS in 2019 without any evidence of cheating - which is easy to forget - the club brings back every major bat from the order, and its rotation is still anchored by studs Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. This is largely the same team that won 107 games last year without the motivation to prove its talents post-cheating.

Before news of a potentially shortened season, the Astros were projected to win the division 89.4% of the time by PECOTA, which would be worth roughly -850 in the betting market. Yes, uncertainty lingers, but this is a steal in plain sight. There's simply too much talent to fade Houston this year.

Oakland Athletics (+300)

If any team has the talent and depth to challenge Houston, it's the Athletics, who have two MVP-caliber bats in Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien and return nearly the entirety of a group that ranked eighth in weight runs created in 2019.

The A's staff finished sixth in ERA (3.97) a year ago, but some of the credit belongs to a superb infield defense, as evidenced by Oakland's lackluster FIP (4.34). Can the rotation - aided by the return of potential ace Sean Manaea - improve in 2020? There are enough questions to lean Houston in this division, but there's enough upside to take a shot on the A's.

Team to avoid

Los Angeles Angels (+600)

It's easy to talk yourself into the Angels at first glance. Mike Trout is the best player in the world, and Shohei Ohtani could join the conversation if he ever stays healthy. Adding MVP contender Anthony Rendon to that lineup is intriguing, as is plugging in Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to a rotation that sorely needs help.

Then you look at the rest of the roster - especially the thin rotation - and realize how much work is left to lift this team above .500 for the first time since 2015. New skipper Joe Maddon has a reputation of resuscitating franchises, but even he'll be hard-pressed to outpace the Astros in Year 1. The upside is there, but at +600, the value isn't.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.