MLB saves leader odds: Can Yates maintain 2019 magic?

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Finally, it looks like baseball is back, albeit with a significantly shortened slate. That short schedule means plenty of upheaval - and potential value - in volume-based prop markets. Today, we'll break down the best bets to lead MLB in saves, which has been a volatile market to pin down of late.

Kirby Yates' 41 saves in 2019 were the fewest by any league leader since 1994, though Edwin Diaz's 57 saves in 2018 were the second-highest over the same span. This is a market that rewards opportunity over pure skill; who will get the chance to amass saves in a shortened 2020?

Here are the odds to lead MLB in saves this season, with a few names to target as early values.

Kirby Yates (+1000)

Among the 143 pitchers with at least 40 saves in a season over the last 25 years, Yates' 1.30 FIP last year was the third-lowest, while his 41.6% strikeout rate and 36.2% K-BB% were both fifth-highest. That'd be easy to write off as a fluke, except his strikeout and walk rates have been impressive (and steadily improving) over the last three years.

So has his FIP, which came down from a staggering 8.64 in 2015 to last year's stellar mark, leading all players with at least 10 innings pitched. He cashed in with a one-year extension with the Padres this spring and should have plenty of chances to prove he's worth another payday.

Edwin Diaz (+1200)

Nobody has recorded more saves over the last three years (117) than Diaz, who was as exceptional with the Mariners in 2018 as he was abysmal with the Mets in 2019. His 5.59 ERA speaks for itself, as do his 15 home runs allowed in 58 innings. Yet there was certainly some bad luck involved: His 26.8% HR/FB rate was third-highest in the majors and a clear outlier among his career stats, as was a sky-high .377 BABIP.

Nine of the 15 home runs Diaz allowed last year had exit velocities of lower than 100 mph, per Forbes' Tony Blengino. That's incredibly unlucky. Diaz actually struck out more batters per nine innings (15.36) in 2019 than in any of his previous three seasons, so if he can keep a few more balls on the ground in 2020, the upside is there for another monster year.

Hansel Robles (+2000)

While the saves leader has been somewhat unpredictable in recent years, five of the last seven leaders entered the season with a similar statistical profile: They'd all logged at least 50 innings the year before with 10 saves, a FIP below 3.00, a strikeout rate of at least 25%, a walk rate below 7%, and a HR/9 rate of less than 1.0.

Only four relievers in this year's field checked off every box last season; two of them (Yates and Liam Hendriks) are priced at 10-1, and another (Ian Kennedy) might not even be the closer this year. That leaves Robles as the best value among the bunch, and he could see a healthy amount of save opportunities for an improved Angels squad with an unproven rotation.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.