MLB playoff picks: Expect the unexpected in winner-take-all Game 5
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The American League Division Series comes to a close on Friday as the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees clash for a date with the Houston Astros in the ALCS.
Here's how we're betting it.
New York Yankees (-155) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+135)
They're really doing it. In a winner-take-all Game 5, I'd expect nothing less. The Rays are going with Tyler Glasnow on just two days' rest, and the Yankees are opting for Gerrit Cole on three days'. Neither pitcher has ever done that in their respective career.
That makes things incredibly difficult from a capping perspective, because we can't truly know how either pitcher will react under such circumstances. Will the short rest prove detrimental to their performance, or can we expect the same effectiveness we saw in Game 1 and 2 from Cole and Glasnow, respectively? What we do know, however, is the Yankees made Cole the most expensive pitcher in MLB history for this very reason.
We also know each team's bullpen will play a massive role, with neither pitcher likely to last too deep into the game. One would presume that gives the Rays an advantage as the league's unofficial bullpen experts. In a perfect world for Aaron Boone, he'll need to use only Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman after Cole, with Chad Green likely the third option out of the pen (though Green has pitched in two consecutive games for the Yankees). Any other formula and it gets tricky for Boone.
Kevin Cash has more options, and that's what makes the Rays so dangerous if they can get to Cole early. We will almost assuredly see both Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, with neither having pitched since Game 2, and Diego Castillo is another option after having the day off yesterday. It's also well within the realm of possibility we see Game 1 starter Blake Snell enter the contest at some point.
If Boone is able to follow the Cole-Britton-Chapman script, it's hard to pick against the Yankees. But these elimination games always seem to offer up a twist, in which case you can't overlook the flexibility of the Rays' pitching staff.
Cole was tagged for three runs on six hits and two walks across six innings in Game 1, and the Rays will hope to get to him early here. Ji-Man Choi, who's 10-for-19 with three doubles and four home runs against Cole in his career, will play a prominent role, as will Randy Arozarena, who was 3-for-3 with a home run against the dominant right-hander in Game 1. The Rays will work counts in an attempt to get Cole's pitch count as high as possible in the early going. Once he comes out, that's when the trouble starts for Boone.
We likely won't see more than a few innings from Glasnow, who allowed four runs - on just three hits - in five innings in Game 2. But the Rays are in a good spot here, and I'm willing to back Cash over Boone in a game that will require some creativity from the managers.
Pick: Rays (+135)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.