MLB playoff picks: A couple of southpaws kick-start the ALCS
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Mike Brosseau's home run off Aroldis Chapman was the stuff of legends. It booked the Rays a spot in the ALCS at the expense of their rivals, completed a Hollywood-worthy script, and reminded us all of the romanticism of October baseball, even in these unprecedented times.
It also won us our Game 5 bet while keeping our Rays AL pennant and World Series futures alive.
Standing in Tampa Bay's way now are the white-hot Astros, who have been close to unstoppable this postseason while adopting an us-against-the-world mentality. Game 1 of the best-of-seven ALCS goes Sunday.
Houston Astros (+120) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
A pair of southpaws will take the mound tonight in Blake Snell and Framber Valdez, which will mean something very different to these two teams.
The Astros were really poor against lefties during the regular season, slashing .232/.299/.403. Kyle Tucker (.217), Jose Altuve (.167), Michael Brantley (.231), and George Springer (.229) especially struggled against southpaws at the top of the team's lineup. Houston is slashing .265/.346/.500 against left-handers in a smaller sample size in the postseason, but that's still a step down from what the Astros have done against right-handed pitching.
For Snell, he will know just what to expect after facing this Astros lineup three times in the playoffs last season. Snell wasn't stretched out during those appearances - he'd returned from a near-two-month stint on the injured list just before the postseason - but he was still efficient. The left-hander allowed just one run in 3 1/3 innings during his lone start, and he didn't allow a baserunner in two scoreless innings of relief. Snell will go much deeper into this game, having not pitched since Game 1 of the ALDS.
The 27-year-old was excellent against the Blue Jays in his first start this postseason but struggled to keep the ball in the yard against the Yankees. Snell still managed to limit the damage despite giving up three home runs, and now he gets a lineup that boasts a lot less power.
The Astros likely won't need a ton of run support, though, as they counter with Valdez. The 26-year-old has been really sharp through two postseason appearances. He threw five shutout innings in relief against the Twins and gave up just two runs - both solo shots - in his seven-inning start against the Athletics.
Valdez gets a Rays lineup that was marginally better against left-handed pitching than versus right-handers this season. Tampa Bay slashed .237/.340/.455 against southpaws and .238/.324/.415 against righties. However, while the Rays did hit for a bit more power against lefties, Valdez recorded a 0.64 HR/9 - fourth-best among qualifying pitchers - and a 13.5% HR/FB rate.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.