MLB playoff picks: Trust Urias, Dodgers to fight back
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Wins for the Braves and Rays ensured we swept the board with our Tuesday card, moving us to a strong 4-1 in the two championship series.
Here's what's on tap for Wednesday, as we look to keep the gravy chain chuggin' along.
Dodgers (-185) @ Braves (+165), 6:05 p.m. ET
With Clayton Kershaw still recovering from back spasms, the Dodgers turn to another southpaw in Julio Urias to try and avoid falling into the dreaded 3-0 series hole. On the surface, Urias had a really strong season for the Dodgers - his first as a permanent fixture in the rotation. His 3.27 ERA through 10 starts was impressive, and while his 3.72 FIP backs it up, a 5.06 xFIP is a bit worrisome.
That being said, Urias is built to attack the Braves' lineup. He doesn't allow a lot of hard contact and limits barrels against. The best way to attack Urias is to put the ball in play and string together hits, which isn't how the Braves do their best work.
It’s been a strong postseason for Urias, who's yet to allow an earned run in eight frames while striking out 11 to just one walk. He put in a really strong performance versus a Padres lineup that enjoyed plenty of success this season against southpaws, and he now gets an Atlanta team that slashed just .248/.329/.425 against left-handed pitching. Ronald Acuna Jr. (.226), Dansby Swanson (.186), Freddie Freeman (.245), and Ozzie Albies (.214) all fared particularly poorly.
The Braves counter with Kyle Wright, who put another poor season behind him to find success in his lone playoff start, throwing six scoreless frames with seven strikeouts to two walks against the Marlins. Still, one start isn't enough to erase a full season, during which Wright was roughed up to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 5.90 FIP.
Wright doesn't miss many bats and allows a ton of hard contact. His .372 xwOBA, .511 xSLG, 14.3 BB%, and 6.65 xERA all ranked near the bottom during the regular season, and while he seemed to find a groove against a rather underwhelming Marlins lineup, this is a massive step up in class. Against right-handed pitching this season, Miami finished last in MLB in home runs (36) and second last in slugging (.355). The Dodgers, meanwhile, were first in both categories with 91 homers and a .498 slugging percentage. Los Angeles got its offense back on track late in Game 2 and will have no problem carrying that momentum into Game 3. This isn't a team that will go down without a fight.
Pick: Dodgers -0.5 first five innings (-140)
Rays (-130) @ Astros (+120), 8:40 p.m.
It's all gone wrong for the Astros in the ALCS. They're batting 4-for-23 (.174) with runners in scoring position with no RBIs, Jose Altuve has the yips in the field, they're staring at a 3-0 series hole, and they now must face Rays ace Tyler Glasnow in a must-win Game 4. That us-against-the-world mentality has to be feeling more overwhelming than motivating right now.
Glasnow handled two of the league's more potent lineups relatively well during these playoffs. He struggled with the long ball, allowing four home runs in 13.1 innings, but his 20 strikeouts are a strong indicator that his stuff has been close to its best. He’s been plagued by the long ball all season, allowing an 8.8 Barrel % and a 42.4 Hard Hit %. His 38.2 K% was among the best in MLB, but when hitters connected, they did so effectively. That will offer the Astros' lineup an opportunity to bust out of its slump if hitters can stay disciplined at the plate.
A lot has changed in a year, but Glasnow struggled against the Astros in the 2019 playoffs, allowing six runs in seven innings across two starts. Zack Greinke - the Astros' Game 4 starter - did as well, though, getting roughed up for six runs on five hits and a walk in just 3 2/3 innings against the Rays last postseason.
Greinke is coming off a very pedestrian season by his standards, and it's fair to wonder whether his effectiveness has waned in his age-36 season. (He turns 37 a week from Wednesday). His fastball velocity is way down, and he isn't getting the same vertical or horizontal movement on his changeup, curve, or slider. The end result was an 8.2 Barrel % and 35.2 Hard Hit % - both career highs - as well as a .422 xSLG and .289 wOBA, his worst marks since 2016. Greinke has struggled in the postseason thus far and Game 4 should be no different against a relentless Rays lineup.
Pick: Over 8 (-120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.