Skip to content

MLB playoff picks: Back Rays to punch World Series ticket

Alex Trautwig / Major League Baseball / Getty

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

We fell a run shy of another sweep Wednesday, narrowly missing the over in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series as our overall record in the championship series moves to 5-2.

Here's what's on tap for Thursday:

Rays (-135) @ Astros (+125), 5:07 p.m. ET

After extending their season by at least another night Wednesday, the Astros face an even scarier proposition in Game 4: the inevitable bullpen game stemming from a crammed postseason schedule. The Rays are the last team you'd want to face in a bullpen game. It's a great opportunity for Tampa to capitalize on some of its greatest strengths - the ingenuity and resourcefulness of Kevin Cash and a deep pitching staff.

Blake Snell was the other option for the Rays, but he's never started on fewer than four days of rest and makes more sense as the Game 6 starter on a regular schedule. Josh Fleming seems the most logical option. The rookie southpaw can start the game or follow an opener. Tampa added him to the postseason roster for this series, and one would have to suspect this is why. Fleming posted an impressive 2.78 ERA across seven appearances (five starts) this season.

Fleming's underlying numbers in the regular season were equally impressive. He surrendered just a .284 xwOBA and .363 xSLG while allowing a 5.2 barrel percentage. He throws a heavy dose of sinkers (53.4%), mixing in a slider (29.4%) and a lethal changeup (15.5%) that hitters managed a .105 xBA against this season.

The Rays' bullpen is in good shape after the team used just two arms behind Tyler Glasnow in Game 4. Nick Anderson hasn't pitched since Game 2 and will be available to toss multiple innings, while Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo also had Wednesday night off. Tampa is well-positioned to patch together 27 outs Thursday.

That puts the Astros in quite a pickle, as they're far less suited to this type of environment. Dusty Baker has already said he won't use Framber Valdez or Lance McCullers Jr. on short rest, so Houston will have to dig deep to try to get through this game, using relievers who have yet to rack up high-leverage innings in this series.

Cristian Javier, a potential Game 5 starter, wound up throwing two innings yesterday and will be unavailable as a result, while Ryan Pressly is likely a last resort. Like Fleming, Chase De Jong is on the roster after his team added him for the ALCS, and he could play a prominent role for Houston tonight. That spells trouble for the Astros, as De Jong and his miserable 14.73 ERA this season could be exactly what the doctor ordered for this Rays offense.

That said, Houston hasn't had to dip into its bullpen too much in this series, with its starters throwing 24 of 34 innings. The Astros have options, but those options don't inspire nearly as much confidence as the Rays' relievers. The curtain falls on Houston's 2020 campaign Thursday.

Pick: Rays (-135)

Dodgers (-230) @ Braves (+190), 8:08 p.m.

Looking to even the series after issuing a beatdown of the Braves on Wednesday, the Dodgers will trot out another lefty in Game 4. Clayton Kershaw, who was scratched from his Game 2 start with back spasms, will take the mound. It's fair to assume Kershaw is fully fit to pitch Thursday, as it's incredibly unlikely the Dodgers would be risking the future Hall of Famer in this spot.

Readers of Wednesday's article know Atlanta's lineup struggles against left-handed pitching, slashing just .248/.329/.425 against southpaws in the regular season. Ronald Acuna Jr. (.226), Dansby Swanson (.186), Freddie Freeman (.245), and Ozzie Albies (.214) - the meat of this Braves lineup - have found lefties particularly challenging.

Atlanta will counter with 22-year-old rookie Bryse Wilson, who's unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Braves have a multitude of options out of the bullpen after a potentially series-saving relief appearance from Huascar Ynoa in Game 3. Ynoa tossed four innings and 92 pitches with the game out of hand, while Shane Greene also made an appearance. Otherwise, Atlanta has most of its top arms available after giving them Wednesday night off.

This game will probably come down to some key managerial decisions. The question is whether Wilson can do enough to limit the damage early on - something Kyle Wright failed miserably at in Game 3 - for those managerial decisions to have any weight. The Dodgers led MLB with 91 homers and a .498 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. With an alarming 12.5 barrel percentage and .471 xSLG allowed this season, Wilson could very well be their latest victim.

Dave Roberts has some options out of the bullpen, and though the Dodgers are likely hoping to preserve Dustin May for a Game 5 start, everything is on the table. Kenley Jansen will undoubtedly play a part and is probably in line for some high-leverage innings. But while he coasted through a 1-2-3 inning in Game 3, he's struggled to find consistency this season. Even if the Braves get off to another rough start, they will have opportunities to claw back into this game at the expense of L.A.'s underwhelming relief corps.

Pick: Over 9 (-110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox