MLB playoff picks: Astros to extend stay in Arlington

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Carlos Correa's walk-off home run relegated us to a second consecutive 1-1 split, as our championship series record moves to 6-3.

Let's set the tone for the weekend with a Friday sweep:

Astros (+125) @ Rays (-145), 6:07 p.m. ET

Staring down the barrel of a 3-0 series deficit, the Astros had a mountain to climb to keep their season alive. Back-to-back one-run wins have pulled them to within a game of the Rays, as the pressure begins to shift toward Tampa in this American League Championship Series. With the threat of a Game 7 looming, the Rays turn to their former Cy Young winner to halt Houston's comeback in its tracks.

The Astros have seen a heavy dose of right-handed pitchers over the last two nights, but they'll need to solve their struggles against left-handed hurlers if they're to force Game 7. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays on regular rest, and there's no one else Tampa would rather give the ball in this situation. But while Houston slashed just .232/.299/.403 against southpaws this season, its lineup has had success against Snell.

George Springer (4-for-11), Jose Altuve (4-for-13), Michael Brantley (4-for-6), Alex Bregman (5-for-13), Yuli Gurriel (5-for-14), and Correa (2-for-6), and have all found ways to hit Snell in their careers. Springer, Brantley, and Bregman all have home runs off him, while Altuve has gone yard three times against Snell. Houston has its mojo back right now, and that could be problematic for the Rays.

Framber Valdez will start for the Astros and has been nothing short of terrific for them in 2020; a 2.85 FIP suggests his impressive 3.57 ERA should have been even better, and he's carried that form into three very strong postseason starts. Valdez is especially dangerous because - unlike so many pitchers - he gets harder to hit on his second and third times through the lineup. With Valdez facing the Rays for the second time in less than a week, Dusty Baker has to be feeling confident.

Pick: Astros (+125)

Dodgers (-240) @ Braves (+210), 9:08 p.m.

After receiving a 15-3 beatdown in Game 3, the Braves returned the favor Thursday, moving to within one win of the World Series with a 10-2 rout of the Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Atlanta manager Brian Snitker plans to have Max Fried start Game 6 if necessary, muddying the picture for his team in Game 5. The Braves haven't announced a starter yet, but it will be little more than a formality in what's shaping up to be a bullpen game for Atlanta.

Huascar Ynoa and Grant Dayton are the only relievers Snitker has said will be unavailable Friday, so the Braves have plenty of options to piece together 27 outs, including Game 3 starter Kyle Wright. This is a very deep bullpen, and Snitker should certainly be feeling confident in the arms at his disposal as the Braves look to punch their World Series ticket.

Dustin May gets the start for the Dodgers, his second of this postseason. He's yet to allow a run in these playoffs, striking out six with just one hit in 4 2/3 innings. The 23-year-old throws heat, putting nasty spin behind his 98-mph fastball while mixing in a cutter and a vicious curveball. Opposing hitters managed just a .125 average against his four-seamer this season and a .156 average against the curve.

But May's underlying numbers in his rookie campaign aren't as convincing. A 4.62 FIP does little to back up his 2.57 ERA, while his xwOBA, xSGL, and barrel percentage were all league average. He gives up a ton of contact, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate and the bottom tenth in whiff rate. May is a promising young arm with a bright future, but he has no business laying -240 in this spot against a Braves team that absolutely mashes against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Braves (+210)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.