MLB Tuesday best bets: Fade Bundy in return after previous clunkers
We split our two MLB picks on Monday and would have swept the board if not for a meaningless home run in the ninth to foil our Dodgers run line play. We'll try to pull off the perfecto with Tuesday's best bets:
It feels a bit gross picking the Reds to win a game against any opponent after their abhorrent start to the season. But this group has quietly won six of its last 10 games, and it's well-positioned to keep that going in Tuesday's tilt against the Guardians.
Cleveland starter Zach Plesac has long struggled with giving up hard contact, but it's catching up to him in a big way over his last few starts. The 27-year-old righty has surrendered 17 runs (14 earned) over his last three starts, and he was tagged with seven hits in each of his previous two games as well.
Conversely, Reds starter Connor Overton has been among the few bright spots for this club, pitching into the sixth inning or further in each of his three starts while allowing just three combined runs in that stretch. At this price, I like his chances of leading his team to its third win in his four starts.
On Monday, we loved the Nationals' team total under three runs versus the Marlins after the team's offense had run cold in recent weeks. This time, we're banking on an entire team collapse with erratic rookie Joan Adon on the mound.
Through seven starts, Adon leads the majors in walks (23) and wild pitches (six), and he's surrendered at least three runs in six of his seven starts - all lasting no more than five innings. After his most recent loss to the Mets, when he walked five batters in 3 2/3 frames, he said he "just couldn't find the zone" and couldn't explain why.
It's no wonder the young Nationals starter leads MLB in losses (six), though Washington's cold stretch at the plate certainly doesn't help. With Nelson Cruz (illness) still uncertain to play in this one, all the signs are pointing toward another big Marlins win.
I'm still a long-term believer in Dylan Bundy, who has struggled to recapture the magic of his electric 2020 campaign in two years since. That said, Tuesday isn't the day to bet on a return to glory for the Twins' struggling righty.
After a strong start to the season, Bundy collapsed over his previous two starts - giving up six runs on seven hits against the Rays before coughing up nine runs to the lowly Orioles in just 3 2/3 innings in his latest outing. Then Bundy tested positive for COVID-19 and has been sidelined for two weeks, and he's expected to have a limited pitch count in his return to the mound on Tuesday.
We'll still likely see enough of Bundy for the Athletics to take advantage. While Oakland has plated just one run in three straight games, each of those came in the first four innings, and this team plated four or more runs in four of five games before that. Don't be surprised to see this otherwise subpar lineup tee off in Bundy's return.