MLB Monday best bets: Brewers to bounce back vs. Nationals
We finished last week in style, going 2-1 with best bets to close our weekly record at 9-4.
We'll look to pick up where we left off with three plays for the opening card of the week.
Brewers (-200) @ Nationals (+170)
The Brewers enter this contest on a three-game losing streak, but I don't think that's the least bit concerning. They scored 18 runs over the three-game set against the Braves; they simply couldn't slow Atlanta's mind-numbingly good offense - a problem every team goes through.
Pitching should not be a problem against the Nationals. For one, the Brewers will be sending ace Corbin Burnes to the bump in the series opener. But going from the Braves to the Nationals is as big a drop in quality as you could encounter right now.
The Braves rank second in xwOBA versus righties this month and have hit 39 homers, putting them 12 clear of the second-placed Dodgers. That's an insane gap.
Over the same period of time, the Nationals slot 30th in xwOBA, and only two teams have hit fewer homers against right-handed pitching.
The Nationals don't strike out a ton, which hurts Burnes' fantasy ceiling, but in the real world, he should still have a field day. He is sporting a remarkably strong .230 xwOBA in July and inducing grounders nearly 50% of the time.
I expect Burnes to generate a lot of soft contact, making it very difficult for Washington to generate any sort of sustained offense.
On the flip side, this is a good spot for the Brewers' attack to stay hot. Jake Irvin has conceded at least three earned runs in five of the past six and is having serious problems preventing home runs.
The Brewers are in a good spot to score runs in bulk, which should have them breezing to victory with Burnes on the mound. He generally doesn't need much support.
Washington has dropped a whopping 21 games dating back to June 17. Only three have been by one run.
Look for that trend to continue and the Brew Crew to pick up a multi-run victory.
Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-120, playable to -130)
Reds (+100) @ Cubs (-120)
The Reds and Cubs both average 4.9 runs, putting them in a tie for the seventh-highest per-game output in the league. I don't think the offenses are getting enough respect in this spot.
A pitching matchup of Andrew Abbott and Marcus Stroman might be the best the two sides could currently offer, but that doesn't mean it's something to write home about.
Abbott is a very talented young arm with strong counting numbers. However, he has faced only one top-10 offense in 10 starts this season. The Cubs will be the best opponent faced in terms of run-scoring, which is no doubt a factor in his 1.90 ERA.
Abbott owns a .315 xwOBA the past month - which is fine but not great - and has induced grounders only 26% of the time. Sooner or later an inability to keep the ball on the ground will get him into trouble.
Stroman, meanwhile, has struggled to throw strikes of late and has paid the price for it, allowing at least four runs in four of his past five starts and a total of 21 in that span.
With strong offenses taking on a pitcher performing over his head and another in his worst form of the season, the total seems too low.
I like the over of 7.5 runs and, at plus money, also see some value if you want to adjust to 8.5.
Bet: Over 7.5 (-135, playable to -140)
Griffin Canning under 16.5 outs
Canning is playing well right now. He is throwing a ton of strikes and consistently pitching deep into games, going over his 16.5-out line in seven of the past 10.
I don't see that success continuing against the Braves. They're at the peak of their powers right now, leading the league in xwOBA, slugging, barrel rate, and homers in July. In some categories, no team is even close.
Opposing starters have shown zero ability to slow the Braves down. Over the past 25 games, starters have gone 7-18 on this out total. That's a putrid 28% hit rate for the over.
Freddie Peralta, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, Sandy Alcantara, and Joe Ryan are just a few of the notables who have been unable to get the job done versus Atlanta this past month.
Given the power the Braves hit for, how consistently they get on base, and their ability to quickly string runs together, I don't see Canning flirting with six innings here.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140).
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.