Keller, Pirates to rebound vs. Athletics

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Our 6-0 run came to an abrupt halt Monday night. Clarke Schmidt and Grayson Rodriguez both lost their unders by one out, while the Braves blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth against the Mariners.

Let's take a closer look at three of my favorite plays for Tuesday's card as we look to get back on track.

Pirates (-135) @ Athletics (+115)

The Pirates dropped five of the past six games, including the series opener against the Athletics. But I think they have a great chance of getting back in the win column Tuesday night.

Taking the bump for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller. His season numbers don't look great on the surface, but his ERA was inflated over his last two starts against the Red Sox (10th in runs per game) and Brewers (fifth in runs per game).

He should have a much easier time chewing up innings - and giving the Pirates a quality start - against the Athletics, who are scoring exactly three runs per game and hitting a league-worst .206 on the season.

The Athletics also rank last in contact rate. They should allow Keller, who is averaging just under a strikeout per inning, to put forth a ceiling performance in terms of missing bats.

On the flip side, the Pirates are in a great spot offensively going up against Alex Wood. He owns a 6.59 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and .369 xwOBA on the season. Wood gives up a ton of contact and induces grounders only 33% of the time.

The Pirates don't hit lefties overly well, but a soft-throwing contact arm like Wood shouldn't give them much trouble.

Keller should get more than enough run support to put the Pirates on a path to victory in this one.

Bet: Pirates (-135)

Tyler Anderson: Under 17.5 outs

Anderson owns a sparkling 1.78 ERA on the year, but he isn't pitching nearly as well as that number would have you believe. He's benefiting from luck and sporting an astronomically low BABIP of .181 despite owning the highest flyball rate of all the day's projected starters.

Put another way, a lot of balls are being put in the air against him, yet very few are turning into hits. That is going to change sooner rather than later given how often Anderson allows the ball to be put in play.

Also working against Anderson and his ability to pitch deep into games is a pretty hefty walk rate. He issued multiple free passes in all but one start this season and three-plus in three straight.

A matchup with the Phillies isn't going to help Anderson's cause. They rank third in xwOBA against lefties over the past two weeks, and the heart of their order is hitting them very well this season.

I'm happy to fade a mediocre arm due for regression in a very difficult matchup.

Odds: -110 (playable to -135)

Jon Gray: Under 17.5 outs

Gray doesn't generally give the Rangers much length in his starts. He went under in 19 of his past 30 dating back to last season, a run that includes four unders in five starts this year with a relief appearance mixed in.

The Nationals aren't an offense to fear, but they do have plenty of quality left-handed bats, which doesn't bode well for Gray.

He's throwing balls at a very high rate and conceding a ton of quality contact. Opposing lefties are posting a 17.9% barrel rate against him - more than double the league average - and a sky-high xwOBA of .435.

Gray does not pitch deep into games, and I don't see that changing against a lefty-heavy Nationals lineup, especially considering the Rangers were off Monday and should have a rested bullpen ready to go.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.