With no Team USA, sportsbooks expect World Cup betting action to suffer major drop off
Covers.com is the biggest and best source for sports betting information, providing unrivaled and original content sports bettors cannot live without.
Tuesday night featured a bunch of losses in the sport of soccer. The United States men’s national team suffered a shocking 2-1 loss at Trinidad & Tobago, and in so doing – thanks to a crazy confluence of other events – lost the opportunity to compete in the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
The U.S. Soccer Federation lost a boatload of World Cup cash that would’ve been coming its way. Forbes calculated $12.5 million minimum from FIFA, plus gate revenue and TV rights fees from pre-World Cup friendly matches, and countless more dollars in sponsorship and merchandise agreements that now won’t be triggered.
ESPN soccer analyst Taylor Twellman lost his mind – and rightfully so – in an epic on-air rant after Team USA, a -400 favorite on three-way moneyline betting, tumbled to Trinidad & Tobago. “What are we doing? WHAT ARE WE DOING?”
Well, what we aren’t doing is betting on Team USA in the World Cup, as sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore lost a bunch of expected handle. The monthlong World Cup is the globe’s biggest-bet event for the planet’s most popular sport. Between the futures book – wagers made on Team USA to win the tournament – and the daily betting during the group stage and perhaps into the knockout round, a lot of handle and potential profit went up in smoke.
“We’re expecting the absence of Team USA to cause around a 15 percent drop in handle from what it would have been, had they been involved,” Jeff Sherman, manager of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, told Covers. “They are, and have been in recent years, No. 1 in ticket count and money wagered in our future book. They bring the casual fan to the table for getting involved in the event. And with the tournament being held during June and July, we often have those that wouldn't normally wager on soccer add teams (most notably USA games) to their baseball parlays, and to parlays on other sports going on at that time.”
Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks, estimates his shops up and down the Vegas Strip will take an even larger hit than the Superbook.
“For us, it’s about a 25 percent drop in handle,” Stoneback told Covers, echoing Sherman in noting the American squad draws a lot of future book wagers, even though the team has almost no shot of surviving long enough to play for the World Cup title, let alone win it. “Right now, USA is No. 2 in futures tickets written, and Germany is No. 1. It would’ve been USA No. 1 by the time the World Cup started, if they’d made it to the tournament. And the U.S. would probably be top three in futures money, between Germany and France.”
Stoneback also lamented the dent Team USA’s absence will put in the day-to-day wagering. With the 2018 tournament taking place in Russia, 12 hours ahead of Vegas, and the June 14-July 15 timeframe, sportsbooks had an ideal opportunity to drum up business once play began.
“That’s the perfect time for us,” Stoneback said. “The World Cup games start early in the day, before baseball games get going. It drives some interest, and there’s no competition with other sports. The World Cup is obviously a big event every year it’s held, but when games are held (earlier), it’s that much bigger.”
At the Superbook, Sherman didn’t have specific figures from the 2014 World Cup, but he recalled Team USA’s group-stage matches having at least double the handle of other group-stage matches involving popular teams.
Offshore sportsbooks will take a gut punch, too. Dave Mason, brand manager for BetOnline.ag, said more than 90 percent of his customers are from the states, so there’s no getting around a much lower World Cup handle.
“Team USA missing out on the 2018 World Cup is definitely a blow for BetOnline,” Mason told Covers. “Considering people love to bet on the home team – especially casual bettors – I believe action will be down about 25 percent from what it would have been if Team USA were in Russia. In 2014, the handle on a game involving USA was over twice as much compared with a typical (group-stage) game. Not only will we not have those big USA games, but fewer casual fans will sign up or reactivate.”
Bookmaker.eu odds consultant Scott Cooley said his shop won’t take nearly as huge a hit, with U.S. customers representing 5 percent of overall World Cup action. But that’s a noticeable hit, nonetheless.
“Given that the majority of our clientele is from the United States, it certainly doesn’t help,” Cooley said. “But soccer bettors will still bet on the World Cup, no matter which teams are playing, and casual bettors will bet on the World Cup because it is on TV and shoved down their throats every day.”
Indeed, while it’s disappointing to Cooley and his peers in the sportsbook business, the fact remains that there is no sport more popular than soccer. Cooley said the handle might be down, but he doesn’t think Team USA missing the World Cup will thwart overall interest, even for casual fans.
“It will certainly make it somewhat less appealing because (U.S. fans) don’t have that home team to root for,” Cooley said. “But in the end, they know the U.S. didn’t stand a chance to win it all, and the quality of play is very good in the latter stages, so I think they’ll watch anyway.”
Mason felt likewise, noting the melting pot that is America has plenty of other options in the 32-team field next year.
“Soccer fans are a little different. Lots of people root for other national teams – wherever their ancestors came from. So there will be a lot of people adopting a team,” Mason said. “The USA’s choke job is definitely a blow, but it will still be a huge betting event, especially since it happens at a slow time.”