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NBA weekend betting preview: Believe in Heat, Raptors

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Two suspensions and an injury to one of the game's biggest stars have already had a significant impact on the early NBA betting market, as has the emergent play of a few surprise teams.

Each week, we'll highlight some of the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this weekend's slate:

Friday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-7.5, 214.5)

The early cheat code to this season appears to be fading the Pacers, who are 1-3 against the spread and have glaring issues on both sides of the ball.

Indiana won its first game Wednesday but lost Myles Turner, the team's best player and one of the league's best interior defenders. It could pose major issues for a Pacers team ranked dead last in rebounds; the Cavaliers' two-post lineup has a chance to gash Indiana inside.

The Cavs dropped Indiana by 11 points the last time they played, and it feels like the Pacers are somehow worse now than before. An 18.5-point swing from then to now is hard to buy, and even the moneyline here is an attractive play.

Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5, 216.5) at Dallas Mavericks

These Mavericks are looking like the real deal after bouncing the Nuggets in Denver. But, have you seen the Lakers? Everything is coming together for Anthony Davis and Co., who have held 19-point leads in three straight blowout wins.

Dallas could take care of business at home, where it's 25-18 straight up since the start of last year, but it's surprising to see the Lakers giving fewer than 3-4 points here unless oddsmakers are overreacting to Davis' shoulder injury. He's expected to play, as is returning forward Kyle Kuzma, which should be enough to tip the scales for the road team.

Saturday

Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers

Joel Embiid will miss this game after the tussle heard around the world on Wednesday. For Philadelphia, that means everything. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Sixers are 84-64-1 ATS (56.8%) when Embiid plays and 17-22-2 ATS (43.6%) when he doesn't.

You can see his effect on the total, too: the under is 76-70-3 (52.1%) with Embiid and 16-23-2 (41%) in games without him, with six straight overs in his absence. The over is 28-20-2 (58.3%) in Portland home games since the start of last season, so the over is worth a look on Saturday in the first of Embiid's two-game suspension.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

It's beginning to look like the Raptors may be the undervalued team of 2019, with a 4-1 start to the year and a top-10 ranking on offense and defense. Toronto lost by six in Boston but has smacked its other four opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game, continuing its success sans Kawhi Leonard.

The Bucks also lost in Boston, this time by 11, and sit at 2-2 on the year after ripping through the East in 2018-19. Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn't matched his supernova levels from a year ago, while Raptors wing Pascal Siakam is doing his best Giannis impression through the early slate. If Toronto gets more than a couple of points, play the road 'dog.

Sunday

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat

The Heat have come out of the gate firing this year, winning four of their first five games even with Jimmy Butler missing the first three contests. Miami is 4-1 ATS in those games and could be catching points this Sunday against a Rockets team that has dropped its first four games ATS.

The Heat have two full days of rest between Thursday's win and Sunday's affair, while Houston has a day's break between trips to Brooklyn and Miami. It could be a savvy under play, too, riding the Heat's strong defense with Butler against a public-friendly Rockets offense.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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