NBA title odds update: Is there value on the sinking Warriors?
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The biggest story of the NBA season through two weeks has been the swift demise of the Golden State Warriors, who are 1-3 through four games and could be without Stephen Curry for at least three months as he recovers from a broken hand.
The five-time reigning Western Conference champions entered the year as 12-1 contenders but slipped Friday afternoon to 20-1 at theScore Bet in New Jersey. Some books have lengthened Golden State's odds to 160-1, which would rank in the bottom half of all teams.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, says he's fascinated by the industry's reaction to the Warriors' slow start, and he isn't ready to write off the Dubs just yet.
"I'm kind of taken aback that guys are willing to offer that long of a price on a quality team," Rood told theScore on Friday. "If we get around Christmas and they're 10 games out of the eighth spot, then they should be around 80-1 or 100-1. But as of right now, this team is capable of doing some things even though they've got some issues."
He added: "Everybody's wanting to raise them up to 100-1 or give kind of a crazy number there, which we're not quite ready to go there yet."
On the surface, the Warriors haven't looked like an above-average group on either side of the ball. Entering Friday's games, Golden State ranks dead-last in defensive rating (118.5) and third-last in net rating (-11.5), while its offense is 26th in field-goal percentage (41.4%) and 25th in 3-point percentage (30.4%).
The highest-rated marks of this Warriors team are familiar from years past: pace, assists, and free-throw shooting. All three take a massive hit with Curry out until close to the All-Star Break.
Still, the NBA title futures market doesn't care about regular-season rankings, and a fully healthy Warriors squad could mean trouble for bookmakers come April. Curry should be back before then, and Klay Thompson's recovery coincides with a potential return for the playoffs.
"If he were to somehow come back right before the playoffs and is good to go, that's a pretty damn good core," Rood said. "If I had a ticket at 100-1 in my pocket, I'd be pretty stoked."
NBA title odds (as of Friday afternoon)
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 3-1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 7-2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 6-1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 7-1 |
| Houston Rockets | 8-1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 15-1 |
| Utah Jazz | 15-1 |
| Boston Celtics | 20-1 |
| Golden State Warriors | 20-1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 22-1 |
| Miami Heat | 40-1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 40-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 40-1 |
| Indiana Pacers | 50-1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 60-1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 60-1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 65-1 |
| Orlando Magic | 125-1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 150-1 |
| Sacramento Kings | 150-1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 200-1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 200-1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 250-1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 250-1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 250-1 |
| New York Knicks | 250-1 |
| Washington Wizards | 250-1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 300-1 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 500-1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 500-1 |
Other notes, movements
Los Angeles Lakers (7-2)
Surprise, surprise: bettors love the Lakers, who have erased the memory of an opening-night loss with three straight dominant wins. Anthony Davis looks rejuvenated in purple and gold, though injury concerns are already creeping up for the star big man. Still, he and LeBron James have passed the test early and look every bit as good as their short price suggests.
Miami Heat (40-1)
Even with their 4-1 start, the Heat haven't seen any activity on their 40-1 title price, Rood says, which is surprising given the limited competition in the East. Instead, bettors are still hammering the Bucks, who are off to a sluggish 2-2 mark but are priced at a modest 6-1.
Minnesota Timberwolves (250-1)
There's some early liability on Minnesota, which opened the year with three wins before Wednesday's loss in Philadelphia. With the way Karl-Anthony Towns is playing, the T-Wolves could sneak into the playoffs, though they're likely too thin around him to justify a 250-1 shot.
Phoenix Suns (300-1)
Phoenix has been the NBA's surprise team through two weeks, winning three of its first five games after a 21-victory campaign in 2018-19. Rood says his book took a couple of shots on the Suns at 300-1, but nothing big enough to move their odds. Still, they've looked better than the third-worst team in the league, as the oddsboard suggests.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.