NBA weekly betting preview: Expect big night from Kemba in Charlotte return
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Well, that certainly got everyone's attention. Heading into the weekend, we suggested that bettors should believe in the Miami Heat ahead of their Sunday clash with the Houston Rockets. And oh, did Miami deliver, building an early 59-18 lead in an eventual 29-point win.
However, the statement victory was a bummer for bettors who'd been profiting off the undervalued Heat. Will oddsmakers sap the value from Miami in upcoming games? And will Houston see some sneaky value after the blowout loss?
Each week, we'll highlight some of the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this week's slate:
Note: Lines for Tuesday and beyond are released later in the week.
Monday
Rockets (-5, 231.5) at Grizzlies
The Rockets opened as 6.5-point favorites in this game before Sunday's brutal loss to Miami dropped them to 5-point chalk - which came before news that Russell Westbrook would sit out Monday for rest. If the line drops any further, pounce on the road favorites.
After James Harden loses by at least 29 points, his team has gone 6-4-1 against the spread, with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. The Grizzlies are also 3-11-1 ATS this decade when facing a team coming off a 29-point loss or worse.
This Memphis side contains all the elements of a frisky underdog, but it's a team that simply has too many holes and has dropped four of five games ATS to begin the season. Expect Harden to take out his frustrations on a hapless foe.
76ers (-1.5, 223.5) at Suns
Oddsmakers are paying real respect to the Suns, who are short home 'dogs against the NBA's lone undefeated team. Don't buy too much into the 76ers' unblemished record, though, as they could easily fall in Phoenix.
In this matchup, Philadelphia will still be missing the suspended Joel Embiid, who's been a bellwether of his team's ATS success in recent years. The 76ers miraculously erased a 21-point deficit in Portland on Saturday - and then answered the Blazers' late go-ahead three with one of their own - but their small-ball lineup may not fly against Phoenix.
The Suns have been riding a threes-and-assists model to great success with their spread-it-out attack under coach Monty Williams. The emotions from Philly's last win could also have a hangover effect here, so take the points with an eye on the over.
Tuesday
Pacers at Hornets
Are you fading Indiana yet? The Pacers have gone a measly 2-4 ATS this year - with their wins coming against the 2-4 Nets and 2-5 Bulls - and reputation alone could give them too much love on the spread against a talent-devoid Hornets team.
But don't dismiss Charlotte, which has gone 4-2 ATS with three straight covers against the Clippers, Kings, and Warriors. Rookie PJ Washington has surprised early with 15 points per game on 55.7% shooting, and he could find success against a Pacers team that's still missing elite interior defender Myles Turner.
Heat at Nuggets
Expect oddsmakers to give Miami a public bump in this one after Sunday's blowout win over Houston. It's deserved; the Heat are 5-1 ATS and have laid waste to some of the NBA's top teams.
If the line is short here, it's fair to expect similar success in Denver, where the usually home-dominant Nuggets are 0-2 ATS this year. Nikola Jokic and Co. will enter this game well-rested, but it won't matter if they can't rectify their offense, which has surprisingly suffered from stagnant ball movement and so-so shot selection.
Consider fading Jamal Murray in this spot, as he'll have a tough time whether he draws Jimmy Butler or Justise Winslow. Conversely, Butler could break out of his scoring slump against Denver's inconsistent defense.
Wednesday
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz
The Jazz have not looked like the contenders many expected them to be before the year, stumbling to a 4-3 record with a 2-5 ATS mark. Still, their defense has been as advertised, with under bettors cashing in all seven contests.
Wednesday will mark the return of Embiid, who's helped the under to a 10-1-1 record in his last 12 appearances for Philly. The under is also 8-2 when Embiid returns after missing at least one game.
Bucks at Clippers
The Bucks we know and love took a while to get going this year, but convincing wins against the Magic and Raptors reinstalled oddsmakers' faith in Milwaukee, which is a sizable road favorite against Minnesota on Monday.
Even if the Bucks beat the T-Wolves, they'll likely be undervalued heading into Los Angeles, where the Clippers have taken care of business as short favorites but still lack the defensive cohesion to contend with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Under will likely be a popular play here; L.A. has seen four straight unders while Milwaukee has seen three. However, both teams rank in the top five in offensive rating while falling outside of the top 10 on defense.
Thursday
Celtics at Hornets
It's not necessary a "revenge game" for Kemba Walker considering he willingly left the city that embraced him. But it'll certainly be an emotional return for the longtime Hornets guard as he heads back to Charlotte in a Celtics jersey.
Expect Walker to excel in this matchup. He's averaged 26.2 points thus far and will face a Hornets defense that ranks 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.9) and last in points in the paint allowed (57.7) - an area where Walker thrives. Boston is 4-1 to the under this year, but a big night from its star guard could push this game over a potentially low total.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.