NBA All-Star Game betting preview: Wager on LeBron for MVP, last shot

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After you're done betting on the Skills Challenge, Three-Point Contest, and Slam Dunk contest, save a few bucks for the All-Star Game, which offers plenty of value with a revised format this year.

The biggest takeaway from this year's rule changes, which were made in part to honor the late Kobe Bryant, is that the fourth quarter will be untimed with a target score, which should make for an exciting finish.

Here's our take on the three key markets that bettors should target in Sunday's exhibition:

Who wins the game?

Team LeBron (-5) is a healthy favorite over Team Giannis after winning each of the last two All-Star Games since the NBA abandoned its East-West format in 2018. Before that, the exhibition was dominated by the West, which won six of seven contests from 2011-17.

If you haven't noticed, this year's rosters are almost perfectly split by conference. LeBron James drafted all five West starters and nine of the West's 12 players, and vice versa for Giannis Antetokounmpo's squad. That paints a grim picture for the underdogs.

Check out the rosters for yourself:

Team LeBron has a combined 62 All-Star appearances and seven All-Star MVPs, while Team Giannis has 30 and zero, respectively. LeBron's side has seven players averaging at least 25 points; Giannis' has two. Six players on Team LeBron have a PER above 25; only one player does on Team Giannis (hint: it's Giannis).

Antetokounmpo's crew is full of guys who do the little things, like Pascal Siakam, Rudy Gobert, and Bam Adebayo. But unless the NBA is donating 10% of its basketball-related income to charity, it won't be enough to motivate either side to play defense or dive for loose balls, rendering most of those advantages moot.

Scoring wins in games like these, and Team LeBron's starters average more than three points higher than Team Giannis' starting five. It's built for the breakneck pace and shooting display that often defines these games, making LeBron's side the easy bet here.

As for the total, which has dipped to 299.5? Fade it. Because of the new rules capping the leading team from scoring more than 24 points in the final frame, the fourth quarter will likely settle somewhere around 50 points. That would mean the other three quarters would need to exceed 250 points, which isn't worth betting on.

Who wins MVP?

Antetokounmpo (+450), Anthony Davis (+450), and James (+500) are the favorites in the field, followed by two-time winner Russell Westbrook (+1000), Joel Embiid (+1100), and Siakam (+1100) as the only choices shorter than 15-1.

In the last 15 years, Davis (2017) and Shaquille O'Neal (2009) are the only big men to have won MVP honors, and Shaq shared the honors with Kobe in '09. The winner also rarely comes from a losing team, which means pricing in a discount on players for Team Giannis.

It's shocking that James, who's won three All-Star MVPs, isn't the clear favorite. Sunday's game will honor Bryant, who's tied for the most All-Star MVPs (four) of all time, in every way it can. What better way than to also award this year's trophy to James, who could tie the record with his first MVP as a Laker? I'd bet it all the way down to 2-1 odds.

The only long shot worth eyeing is Trae Young (+2000), who was a controversial choice as a starter. The sophomore takes a special interest in proving doubters wrong, so it's easy to see him chucking it from 30 feet time and time again, perhaps even for the game's final shot. Speaking of which ...

Who makes the last shot?

If you think Team LeBron will win, you can eliminate half of the field, since the last shot in this format has to come from the winning team.

Much like the MVP award, it would be all too fitting if James (+400) hits the last shot, and you'd have to think he'll be gunning for it. Ultimately, though, it could lead to some messy shots off the rim, which could bring his bigs into play.

Davis (+700) is an excellent candidate for that reason. He's a shot-maker in his own right, but if one of his teammates tries to play hero ball, he'll be there to clean it up. That also makes Nikola Jokic (+3000) an intriguing play for Team LeBron.

As for Team Giannis, Embiid (+1600) or Gobert (+5000) could come into play in a similar situation if their team can pull off the upset. Gobert is especially worth looking at, as he owns the field's best "clutch" shooting percentage at 82.6%.

However, the best way to handicap who makes the last shot might be betting on who takes it. Antetokounmpo (+500) has the field's highest clutch usage (43.4%), while Young (+2000) leads all NBA starters in the percentage of his team's clutch points (54.3%). Still, LeBron is arguably the second-best clutch shooter of this era, behind (who else?) Kobe, and he's the best bet to make another clutch shot Sunday.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.