NBA Wednesday best bets: Fade Wizards, Jazz amid recent struggles
After finishing 10-4 against the spread last week with a 3-0 ATS record on Monday, we were cruising to another 2-1 ATS mark Tuesday ... until the Nuggets blew a 25-point lead in the third quarter against the shorthanded Clippers.
Hopefully, we can avoid such rotten luck with our best bets for Wednesday.
Magic @ Wizards (-8, 217.5), 7 p.m. ET
The Wizards have dropped four consecutive games ATS, are missing their best player, and had to keep teammates from fighting each other in the locker room. Yet, somehow, they're priced as 8-point favorites for the first time all season against a team that nearly beat them three days ago. Huh?
Washington's narrow win over the Thunder on Tuesday was headlined by a halftime fight between Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell, who had to be separated while attempting to throw punches, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. It also marked the first game of an extended absence for star Bradley Beal (COVID-19), who won't play Wednesday, either.
The Magic nearly bested Beal and Co. on Sunday and haven't played since, benefitting from two days' rest against a Wizards squad entering the second night of a back-to-back. This game screams outright upset if you can tolerate the risk, but Orlando should stay well within this number.
Pick: Magic +8
Heat @ Hawks (-3.5, 223.5), 7:30 p.m.
The Hawks are running out of time to turn their season around. Atlanta suffered its second straight double-digit defeat on Sunday to extend its 6-12 ATS run since the start of December. The team owns the NBA's third-worst defensive rating (117.2) in that stretch.
It certainly doesn't help that Clint Capela has missed three of those games - including Sunday's 13-point loss to the Clippers - and likely won't suit up for Wednesday's contest, either. The Heat, meanwhile, have withstood injuries to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo behind a litany of shooters and physical defenders, posting a top-five net rating (plus-8.3) amid a 10-5 ATS run.
It feels like the wrong team is favored here, especially after Miami's 23-point blowout win over the Suns and a four-day layoff since that game. The Heat have been the far superior team on a per-possession basis this year and deserve much more respect in the market.
Pick: Heat +3.5
Cavaliers @ Jazz (-6.5, 221.5), 9 p.m.
It's officially time to panic for the Jazz, who have lost three straight games by double digits without defensive superstar Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint. Utah has allowed a league-worst 124.7 points per 100 possessions in that span and faces a nightmare matchup in this one.
The Cavaliers haven't been great of late, but they have the size to take advantage down low with 7-footers Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Lauri Markkanen all in the starting lineup. Cleveland has scored 44% of its points in the paint - the eighth-highest percentage in the NBA - and will attack this depleted Jazz frontcourt time and time again on Wednesday.
Pick: Cavaliers +6.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.