Warriors vs. Mavericks betting preview: Can Dubs continue Game 1 home dominance?
If you read our series preview on Tuesday, you know that we like the Mavericks' chances to emerge victorious in this series as sizable underdogs. But they've got another mammoth task ahead of them on Wednesday: beating the Warriors in Game 1.
Since Steve Kerr took over as head coach in 2014, Golden State is a stellar 18-2 straight up / 11-9 against the spread in Game 1s at home - outscoring its opponents by an average of 11.8 points with a whopping 13 of those wins coming by double digits. And while the majority of those came with Kevin Durant aboard, these Warriors dominated the Nuggets by 16 points in their lone Game 1 at home this postseason.
It's also historically tough to steal Game 1 after winning Game 7, as we saw with the Celtics on Tuesday. Since the 2004 postseason, teams coming off a Game 7 win are 20-32-2 ATS in the first game of the following series, which includes a 2-7-1 ATS mark in their last 10 tries and a 6-10-1 ATS record for teams coming off a road win in this spot.
There's a chance that Dallas' shooters are red-hot from the jump, which would force Golden State to match wits after a five-day layoff. The better bet is that the Mavericks show signs of fatigue after an intense seven-game clash with the Suns and become a data point in the Warriors' yearslong Game 1 dominance.
Pick: Warriors -5.5