2023 NBA Draft Lottery preview: Odds, top prospects, and how to watch

2023 NBA Draft Lottery
When: Tuesday, May 16, 8 p.m. ET
How to watch: ESPN (U.S.), TSN (Canada)

The NBA draft lottery is a time for hope. That's more true this year than ever with arguably the best prospect since LeBron James set to enter the league.

The 14 non-playoff teams - including the clubs that were eliminated in the play-in tournament - will each send a representative to Chicago, where a random drawing of pingpong balls will determine the order of the first four selections. The following 10 lottery picks fall in order from the worst record of the remaining teams to the best.

For example, the Orlando Magic, who own the sixth-best odds, will draft no lower than the 10th pick even in the unlikely scenario that four teams with worse odds leapfrog them into the top four.

NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum will reveal the picks in reverse order from No. 14 through No. 1, but the order has already been determined by the time the results are televised.

The odds

*The Dallas Mavericks' 2023 first-round pick will convey to the New York Knicks if it falls outside the top 10, which can only happen if one of the four teams below them (the Bulls, Thunder, Raptors, or Pelicans) jumps into the top four. The Mavs traded the pick as part of a package to acquire Kristaps Porzingis in 2019. If Dallas keeps this year's selection, it would owe New York its 2024 first-rounder instead.

**The Chicago Bulls' 2023 first-round pick will convey to the Orlando Magic if it falls outside the top four (as there is a 91.5% chance it will). The Bulls traded the pick as part of a package to acquire Nikola Vucevic in 2021. The Magic also received another first-round pick in the trade that netted them Franz Wagner at No. 8 in the 2021 draft.

Top prospects

Victor Wembanyama, F/C, Metropolitans 92 (France)

The term "unicorn" may get thrown around too often to describe modern NBA stars, but the 7-foot-5 Wembanyama truly fits the bill. The Frenchman's combination of rim protection, shooting, ball-handling, and mobility is unlike anything we've ever seen from a player his size.

Wembanyama averaged 21.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks this season in France's top league. He shot just 29.2% from 3-point range, but the big man's willingness to fire away from beyond the arc and his stellar free-throw shooting (83.6% this season) are encouraging signs for his prospects as a stretch-five. He has the potential to become both a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate and one of the league's best scorers, and he's an absolute lock to be the No. 1 pick.

Scoot Henderson, G, G League Ignite

The consensus No. 2 selection, Henderson spent the past year with the G League Ignite squad that produced lottery picks Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. Listed at 6-foot-2, Henderson is an explosive scoring guard who can get to the rim consistently and create for others. He averaged 16.5 points, 6.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds in 19 regular-season games.

Henderson's shooting is a legitimate concern - he rarely attempted threes and made just 27.5% of those shots in the regular season. Since he'll be expected to have the ball in his hands as a playmaker at the next level, Henderson needs to at least develop a reliable mid-range jumper, if not a 3-pointer. His shooting woes are similar to those of Ja Morant. It'll be a tall task for Henderson to reach Morant's elite level as a driver and finisher, but that may not be as necessary if he can knock down jumpers.

Brandon Miller, F, Alabama

Long, athletic, two-way wings like Miller are in high demand in the modern NBA. At 6-foot-9, he's a solid defender and excellent shooter. He averaged 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds and shot 38.4% on over seven 3-point attempts per game in his lone campaign at Alabama. Most project him to be the No. 3 overall pick, including theScore's latest mock draft, and he could even challenge Henderson for the No. 2 spot if a team stocked with guards (e.g. the Pistons) lands that selection.

Miller's inconsistency is the main concern about his game as he heads to the NBA. The 20-year-old struggled in three NCAA Tournament contests, shooting a historically bad 8-for-41 (19.5%) from the field. He floated in and out of games offensively at times.

Teams may also have some character questions about Miller due to his alleged role in bringing his ex-teammate a gun used in a fatal shooting in January.

Draft representatives