What's at stake for Raptors, Nets, and Sixers over final 2 weeks

As you've surely come to understand, the Toronto Raptors weren't that interested in postseason basketball this year.

The 2024-25 campaign tipped off with team president Masai Ujiri publicly admitting (for the first time in his tenure) that the Raptors were rebuilding. The front office and head coach Darko Rajakovic have reinforced the notion that this is only Year 1 of that rebuild in the months since, even as a trade for (sidelined) former All-Star Brandon Ingram seemingly positioned Toronto for rapid improvement next season.

Over the course of the year, we've evaluated the progress of and dug into the big questions surrounding most members of the Raptors' young core. To be honest, the next nine games aren't going to change how the organization values or prioritizes those players. In addition, no measure of two-way excellence or April efficiency is going to catapult Scottie Barnes into All-NBA (and supermax) territory, just like nothing will change the fact Rajakovic should return. The only matter of significance left to determine is Toronto's draft lottery odds.

The Raptors trail the Eastern Conference's 10th-place Heat by six games, with Miami holding the season-series tiebreaker. The postseason remains a mathematical possibility for only a few more days; the Raptors are essentially out of play-in contention and have almost secured a bottom-seven record overall. On the other hand, they're six games ahead of the 27th-place Pelicans, so a bottom-four record is also out of reach.

That leaves the Raptors in a dogfight with division rivals Philadelphia and Brooklyn for slots five through seven ahead of the May 12 draft lottery, which is why Wednesday's win over the Nets was so significant. The victory, which came despite the Raptors resting Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley (while Ingram and Gradey Dick remain sidelined by injury), widened the gap between Toronto and its … competition, for lack of a better term. The Raptors now lead the Nets and 76ers by three games, with road games in Philadelphia (Sunday) and Brooklyn (April 6) still to come.

Though the odds of landing the No. 1 overall selection in June's NBA draft vary slightly between the fifth-worst (10.5%) and seventh-worst teams (7.5%), there's still plenty at stake. For example, the Sixers' top-six protected pick has a 64% chance of remaining in Philly should the team maintain its current place in the standings. But that flips to a 68% chance of conveying to the league-leading Thunder if the Sixers move ahead of both Toronto and Brooklyn.

Of note: If the Nets and Sixers remain tied through the end of the season, they would share the combined odds of the lottery's fifth and sixth seeds, with the winner of a coin flip getting 9.8% odds of landing the No. 1 pick and the loser receiving 9.7% of the lottery's combinations. That's how lottery ties are handled instead of using regular-season tiebreakers.

Though the Raptors seem to be headed for the seventh-worst record, recent lottery history offers a silver lining. Since the NBA adopted its current lottery format in 2019, teams with the seventh-best odds have actually fared best out of the three slots in question.

Toronto itself moved up from seventh-best odds to the No. 4 pick in 2021, when the team selected Barnes. It's a good reminder that while fans obsess over every game - celebrating or lamenting how each result might alter their team's trajectory - things still hinge on the results of a randomized lottery.

Finally, let's look at the type of talent that's been available recently with the draft's No. 5-8 overall picks. I've included the eighth selection because it's the most statistically likely landing spot for the seventh-worst team.

While there's plenty of talent and even All-Star production in that group, the Raptors no doubt hope for something grander. The ideal outcome would be landing in the draft's top four, if not the top two, with the addition of a player like Duke forward Cooper Flagg or Rutgers guard Dylan Harper ultimately making this lost season worth it.

After all, the whole point of a rebuilding year is to land the type of franchise-changing star who ensures future springs are spent chasing championships, not tracking lottery odds.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead Raptors and NBA reporter.