NBA trade deadline: Analysis for every notable deal

Welcome to your one-stop shop for analysis of every major transaction leading up to Thursday's NBA trade deadline.

Feb. 5

Pacers find their center in Zubac

This is a terrific get for the Pacers. Zubac has long been one of the league's most underrated players, and he's on a tremendously team-friendly contract. The big man will earn roughly $42.1 million over the next two years, accounting for less than 13% of the annual salary cap.

Zubac is an efficient interior scorer, an excellent rebounder, and a solid enough presence on the defensive end. The 28-year-old isn't the type of floor-spacer former Pacers center Myles Turner was, but Zubac is a better overall player at this stage of their respective careers. His screening and rim-running act as gravitational forces in their own right. It's easy to envision Zubac's skill set pairing well with Tyrese Haliburton when the superstar point guard returns next season. Zubac's arrival also pushes Jay Huff - a big man who can stretch the floor and protect the rim - to a bench role that better suits him.

Haliburton's Achilles injury resulted in a gap year for Indiana, but the rest of the Eastern Conference should fear the Pacers' comeback season in 2026-27. At present, the Pacers have Haliburton, Zubac, Huff, All-Star Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker, and Ben Sheppard, among others, under contract next season. And they could potentially add a franchise-altering talent in the draft.

That doesn't mean this deal is without risk. Indiana will lose its 2026 first-rounder if it falls between fifth and ninth. Even if the Pacers enter the draft lottery sharing the best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick - which they're on pace to do as the third-worst club - they'd still have a 47.9% chance of forfeiting a top-10 pick to the Clippers rather than selecting in the top four. And if the Pacers do keep their top-four pick, they'll instead convey an unprotected 2031 first-rounder to the Clippers.

Add the unprotected 2029 first-rounder and Mathurin to the mix, and this is a nice haul for the suddenly rebuilding Clippers, who need all the draft capital they can get. The defending champions should also be celebrating. Remember, the Thunder own Los Angeles' unprotected 2026 first-rounder, and the Clippers will likely slide back down the standings after trading Zubac and James Harden over the last 48 hours (unless Darius Garland magically returns from a toe injury in peak form).

A quick note on Mathurin: The Canadian guard can be a microwave scorer, but he's an inconsistent shooter with limited playmaking vision and a so-so track record on the defensive end, to put it kindly. There's value to be mined from his skill set, but his restricted free agency will be worth watching this summer.

Giannis not going anywhere (for now)

It's an anticlimactic conclusion, but not a surprising one, as Giannis Antetokounmpo will reportedly stay put through the 3 p.m. deadline.

It's still possible that the sidelined superstar has already played his last game for Milwaukee, since waiting for the offseason makes sense for both the Greek Freak and the Bucks. Some of the teams Antetokounmpo has been linked to recently - including the Knicks, Heat, and Timberwolves - will have access to at least one extra tradable first-round pick once this June's draft is complete. In addition, the Bucks will have a better read on their own future after this year's lottery and draft.

Milwaukee will receive the least favorable of its own first-round pick and New Orleans' first-rounder, with both clubs currently languishing in the league's bottom eight. The Bucks can't pick higher than second overall, but a loaded 2026 class gives the team a real opportunity to insure its future. The Bucks could land the type of talent that makes it easier to part with Antetokounmpo - or the kind that convinces him to stick around. Expect a shameless tank the rest of the way for 12th-place Milwaukee.

As for Antetokounmpo, waiting until the offseason could delay his next contract extension. The two-time MVP can sign a four-year extension worth $275 million with the Bucks on Oct. 1, but he had to be traded before the deadline in order to be eligible for the same extension on the same date with another team. Now, Antetokounmpo would be eligible to sign the same deal with another team six months after the date he's traded.

The 10-time All-Star is obviously still a phenomenal talent - he's averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on career-best 67.9% true shooting for a Bucks team that has performed like a top-five club when he's on the court (plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions) and the NBA's second-worst team when he's not (minus-9.5). However, it's worth asking how many teams are willing to pay Antetokounmpo absolute top dollar. Committing more than 35% of the salary cap to him through his age-33 to age-36 seasons is taking a tremendous risk on a non-shooting giant who relies on athleticism and has a recent track record of calf injuries.

Knicks acquire Alvarado

If you trace this deal back to the Knicks' last transaction, they essentially turned Guerschon Yabusele and two second-rounders into a more useful reserve in Alvarado, a New York native. The feisty defensive guard is shooting 36.3% from deep and is a smart playmaker. He's undersized, but he'll give the Knicks good bench minutes as the team strives to end its 27-year Finals drought.

Alvarado's not a perfect replacement, but he'll help mitigate the loss of guard Miles McBride, who could be sidelined until the playoffs with a sports hernia.

Wolves add scoring with Dosunmu

This is a good deal for both sides. There aren't many better scoring reserves than Dosunmu, who's averaging 15 points per game on 51-45-86 shooting. He should provide an immediate boost to a Timberwolves team that ranks 27th in bench-scoring efficiency. Dosunmu can consistently get downhill, put pressure on the defense, and make plays for others. He's also shooting a career-high 45.1% from deep, good for eighth in the league. His defense has been inconsistent, but he's a productive player on an expiring contract that capped-out Minnesota wouldn't have been able to acquire in the offseason. I'd bet on the Wolves working on an extension with the 26-year-old now that they own his Bird rights and can exceed the cap to retain him.

The Bulls finally seem to have accepted that a rebuild is necessary. They waited too long to optimize the value of their teardown, but the 2024 eighth overall pick (Dillingham) and four second-rounders is fine value for a pending free agent.

Lakers land a sharpshooter

Vincent has been mostly disappointing in his three seasons as a Laker, so turning him and a second-rounder into one of the league's most consistent sharpshooters is a good deal for Los Angeles. Kennard, a career 44% 3-point shooter, is shooting 49.7% from deep on the season, leading the league in long-range marksmanship for the third time in five years. The threat of his accuracy, volume, and off-ball movement should be fully leveraged beside Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, though Kennard won't help the team's 24th-ranked defense.

Meanwhile, the Hawks continue to retool and add draft assets.

Feb. 4

Warriors send Kuminga to Hawks for Porzingis

Well, it isn't Giannis Antetokounmpo, but it's something for the Warriors.

Golden State's drawn-out Kuminga saga ended with the Warriors acquiring a former All-Star who can still score, space the floor, and protect the rim when healthy, but that last part is a big caveat. Porzingis was recently activated after a 12-game absence due to Achilles tendinitis, but he hasn't actually appeared in a game since Jan. 7. The 30-year-old has also missed time due to the same health condition (postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome) that slowed him late last season.

It's possible Porzingis complements Steph Curry and forms a solid two-way frontcourt with Draymond Green to help the Jimmy Butler-less Warriors salvage their season. But it feels more likely the big man will be in and out of the lineup for a Dubs squad going nowhere this year before Porzingis' contract expires this summer. Kuminga may not be the player he thinks he is, but surely the Warriors could've managed him - and his trade value - better than this.

Meanwhile, the Hawks get to take a midseason flier on Kuminga's upside for relatively cheap (and have a $24.3-million team option on him for next season). We'll see how that goes. The former seventh overall pick is a tremendous athlete and he can score in bunches, but Kuminga doesn't shoot the ball well enough or defend at a level you'd expect from someone with his explosiveness. It's hard to seamlessly fit a tweener-forward (not quite a four or a three) like that into many lineups, or at least good ones. That's why no one was banging the Warriors' door down for his services.

Raptors shore up center depth with TJD

A lingering Jakob Poeltl back injury made the Raptors the league's most obvious buyer in the center market. Poeltl wasn't just Toronto's starting five-man - he was their only true center. A low-cost move for a depth big made more sense than a shortsighted deal for a star given where the overachieving Raptors are in their building process, and Jackson-Davis certainly fits the depth-big label.

He's still an undersized option at 6-foot-9, and he slowly fell out of the Warriors' rotation over the last couple years after an impressive rookie campaign, but the Raptors should find use for him. Jackson-Davis is a solid defensive big who won't address Toronto's glaring need for shooting, but he's a decent playmaker who can create second chances on the offensive glass and finish inside. He's almost like a discount version of promising Raptors rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, with Jackson-Davis still having a cheap $2.4-million team option for next season.

Knicks, Bulls swap reserves

Yabusele hasn't lived up to expectations off the Knicks' bench and owns a nearly $5.8-million player option next season, so New York swapped the big man for a reserve guard in Terry whose rookie-scale contract is expiring. For what it's worth, Terry is shooting a career-high 41.3% from deep after shooting 29.8% over his first three seasons, but that could be small-sample theater (19-of-46) in limited minutes.

Hornets help Magic duck tax, acquire Jones

The Magic have been one of the league's most disappointing teams, and ditching Jones, who has looked like a shell of himself this season, gets Orlando under the luxury-tax threshold. Jones has been one of the most consistent shooters and offensive caretakers for years, but his efficiency has plummeted this campaign. The 29-year-old was averaging three points per game for the Magic and shooting a shocking 29.4% from deep off the bench.

Whether or not Jones becomes a factor in Charlotte's suddenly formidable rotation (see below for more on the streaking Hornets), this is a great piece of business for a surging young squad. The Hornets added two draft picks in exchange for helping the division-rival Magic duck the tax, bringing Charlotte's total draft haul up to 25 picks over the next seven years.

Wizards swoop in for AD 🚨

It's not often a 13-36 team clearly prioritizing lottery odds in the present trades for two veteran All-Stars in the span of a month, but the Wizards have now added Davis four weeks after buying low on Trae Young.

Davis, like Young, is currently sidelined. The Wizards can keep chasing their top-eight protected pick in a loaded 2026 draft class, adding a prospect to a new-look team led by Davis, Young, rising defensive star Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, and other youngsters next season. Nabbing Hardy in this deal is also an overlooked victory. However, Washington paid a lot more for Davis than it did for Young, making this transaction riskier.

The Wizards would counter that the players headed to Dallas are merely salary filler and they didn't trade any of their own picks; they've taken a flier on a future Hall of Famer without mortgaging their future. Still, whether or not they were surplus picks, two first-round picks and three second-rounders aren't chump change. Davis doesn't need to rediscover his peak form to make this trade a win, but he needs to stay relatively healthy. What are the odds of that happening? Davis has missed 38% of games over the last six seasons and has averaged 60 appearances per 82 contests over his 14-year career. Is he suddenly going to become more durable starting in his age-33 season next year?

There's also the matter of his contract. Including his 2027-28 player option, Davis could earn up to $121.2 million over the next two seasons - a whopping 35%-36% of the salary cap per year. That might be palatable for an all-in team trying to win immediately, but whether we're discussing the short term or a future extension, why would a rebuilding team like the Wizards move five draft picks to sign up for such a deal?

The only answer is that Washington is planning to compete as soon as next season. From that perspective, Davis' presence can help compensate for Young's porous defense. The former's two-way game and the latter's offensive gifts could be a devastating combination when both players are healthy and playing their best, especially when surrounded by some of the Wizards' aforementioned young talent. But it feels like a lot of wishful thinking.

As for Dallas, the team should be content with the draft compensation, although including Hardy in the deal could prove to be a mistake. The Mavs were never going to recoup anything close to equal value for Davis after foolishly trading Luka Doncic for him. In a vacuum, turning the oft-injured big man into a handful of picks as the Mavs continue to build around Cooper Flagg is fine business.

Streaking Hornets add White

Consider this the latest example of Chicago dealing with the consequences of its shortsighted vision. The Bulls resisted calls to rebuild for years, eventually moving on from the core of a mediocre play-in squad for pennies on the dollar. We can now add Coby White's name to that checkered history, as the pending unrestricted free agent couldn't fetch the Bulls a first-rounder. I suppose three second-rounders is a decent consolation prize at this point.

Charlotte's angle is the more interesting one. The streaking Hornets still sit 11th in the Eastern Conference, but they've been playing like contenders for over a month now on the backs of youngsters like Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, LaMelo Ball, and Moussa Diabate, among others. White has his limitations, but he's averaged roughly 20 points and five assists on 59% true shooting over the last three seasons. The 25-year-old could be an explosive addition to head coach Charles Lee's high-powered offensive system - the Hornets already boast the league's sixth-ranked offense. No East contender will want to see Charlotte in a first-round playoff series should the team get there. It's worth noting that Sexton was a respected veteran in a young locker room, though.

Conley is worth monitoring. Because he has been traded a second time after Tuesday's move from Minnesota to Chicago, the veteran floor general would be eligible to rejoin the Timberwolves if Charlotte bought him out.

Raptors duck luxury tax in 3-team CP3 deal

This is as clear-cut as cap-related trades get. The Raptors moved below the luxury-tax line and can spend the next 24 hours trying to reroute Paul - who was not acquired for basketball purposes - or they can waive the future Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, the Clippers slashed their own tax bill by about $7 million, while the Nets added a draft asset (of minimal value) in exchange for taking on Agbaji's expiring contract to facilitate this deal. Agbaji had 3-and-D upside, but the fourth-year swingman has been shaky and unsure of himself on the offensive end, while not possessing the size necessary to guard his ideal matchups on the defensive side of the floor.

Thunder land McCain

The rich get richer.

It will fly under the radar given the bevy of big names already traded this week, but this is a fantastic move for the Thunder. The defending champions dug into their deep pool of draft assets and turned a late 2026 first-round pick plus a trio of second-rounders into a sophomore guard who averaged more than 15 points on 59% true shooting last season.

McCain's struggled mightily to replicate his success this year, but there's a solid reserve in there somewhere - one who can both create his own shot and fire from deep. The Thunder can also use all the help they can get while reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nurses an abdominal strain.

On other end of this deal, the Sixers did well to boost their own asset capital if they'd determined McCain was no longer in their plans.

Cavs move Lonzo, Hawks nab Landale

Between James Harden and Keon Ellis recently joining the fray in Cleveland and Ball's inability to make an impact with the Cavs, the veteran guard was an obvious trade candidate for tax-saving purposes. The Jazz did well to acquire a couple of second-rounders in this deal, with Utah reportedly set to waive Ball.

The Hawks had been linked to higher-priced big men like Davis and Daniel Gafford, but they appear to have filled their frontcourt spot with Landale, whom Utah originally acquired in Tuesday's stunning Jaren Jackson Jr. trade (see below). Landale is a solid reserve center who's added a 3-point shot to his repertoire, knocking down more treys this season (on 38% shooting) than he converted in the last three years combined.

Feb. 3

Harden for Garland blockbuster 🚨

No star has consistently spiced up NBA trade season like James Harden, who has been dealt for the fourth time in five years and the fifth time in his career. Remarkably, none of those trades were completed in the offseason. As I've said in the past, when the going gets tough, Harden gets lost.

That's not an entirely fair assessment of this particular situation. The Clippers faced a ton of adversity to start the year, but Harden wouldn't allow his team to let go of the rope. Kawhi Leonard's return fueled Los Angeles' surge up the standings, but Harden worked tirelessly to keep the team in games up to that point.

The Clippers scored like a top-seven offense (116.8 points per 100 possessions) in minutes with Harden on and Kawhi Leonard off the floor, per pbpstats - an incredible feat when you consider Harden's most frequent lineup mates in those minutes were Kris Dunn, Ivica Zubac, John Collins, and Nicolas Batum. Harden also led the Clippers in court time and is averaging more than 34 minutes per game for the 14th consecutive season, inching closer to the 48,000-minute mark between the regular season and playoffs. He's averaging 25.4 points and 8.2 assists on 59.8% true shooting, marking the 17th straight year he's scored on above-average efficiency.

Given that Garland has been in and out of the lineup due to toe injuries on both feet, you can argue that the all-in Cavs managed to get better in the short term while trimming long-term salary (Garland's deal runs one-to-two years longer, depending on whether Harden picks up his 2026-27 player option). In addition, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can cover for some of Harden's defensive issues.

Harden can clearly still serve as an offensive engine, but can the future Hall of Famer, who famously declared himself to be "The System," find a way to complement an even better guard in Donovan Mitchell and a team trying to compete for a championship? Or at this point of Harden's career, is he just best suited to carry the load for an overmatched play-in team?

Harden will also have to overcome his own playoff demons if the Cavs are going to slay theirs. His postseason resume isn't as bad as his critics suggest, but he's famously shrunk in some of the biggest moments of his career, reducing himself to the role of disengaged passenger. Whether this deal helps the Cavs extend Mitchell and gain financial flexibility should come second to whether it helps them compete for a title in the present, when they're the league's only second-apron club.

As for the Clippers, Garland represents a rare win. The toe issues and his general injury history are concerning, but he's a 26-year-old two-time All-Star who averaged roughly 21 points and seven assists for a 64-win team last season. He's also under contract at about 25% of the cap for the next two years. In a best-case scenario, Garland can serve as a tremendous offensive Robin to Leonard's Batman. But even without Leonard, Garland represents the type of young building block the Clippers seemingly had no chance to acquire given their heavily mortgaged future (and potentially looming cap-circumvention penalties).

Jazz make stunning move for JJJ 🚨

Last summer's Desmond Bane trade gave Memphis two options: Trade Ja Morant and retool around former Defensive Player of the Year Jackson, or trade both Jackson and Morant to rebuild completely. Though Morant remains (for now), Tuesday's trade signifies that the Grizzlies have clearly chosen the latter option.

Jackson has long been one of the league's most underrated players. But considering Memphis' long-term plans and the fact that the 26-year-old will be playing on a 30% (of the salary cap) max contract starting next season, it's not a bad piece of business for the Grizzlies. Acquiring three first-round picks is nothing to sneeze at, while Clayton is a rookie guard who's shown promise, and Hendricks is a young big with shooting upside.

As for the Jazz, Jackson isn't the star we envisioned them chasing with their surplus of draft picks. Still, given the reasonable price to acquire him, the team did well to add a legitimate building block under long-term team control.

Although we can quibble over whether Jackson will be worth nearly 30% of the cap in the coming years and nitpick his rebounding and playmaking limitations, his impact as a defensive big is undeniable. Jackson offers elite rim protection at center or can serve as a more mobile defensive force at power forward. His defensive versatility and floor-spacing ability - he's a career 35% 3-point shooter on nearly five attempts per game - give his team options in the frontcourt. Jackson could easily anchor Utah's defense for the next half-decade or form a devastating frontcourt trio beside Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen. He's also averaged 21.6 points per game while shooting 52% inside the arc over the last three seasons.

In the short term, Utah's priority should still be trying to keep its top-eight protected 2026 pick (owed to Oklahoma City), but it's time to accelerate things as soon as next season. Jackson could just be the first domino, as the Jazz still own six first-round picks between 2028 and 2032 in addition to coveted talents like Markkanen, Kessler, emerging youngster Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, and Isaiah Collier.

Celtics get frontcourt help with Vucevic

The Celtics were expected to take a gap year as franchise superstar Jayson Tatum rehabbed a devastating Achilles injury. Instead, the third-place Celtics have made a win-now move to plug their biggest hole. Who can blame them? Boston is a hardworking team that boasts the league's second-ranked offense and could get Tatum back for the playoffs, all the while somehow thriving with Neemias Queta and Luka Garza filling in at center.

Vucevic won't solve many defensive concerns, but the two-time All-Star will still provide a boost. He's averaging 16.9 points per game while shooting nearly 57% inside the arc and 38% from deep. Vucevic gives the Celtics an interior scoring threat and a dynamic big man who should ease the offensive load currently shouldered by Jaylen Brown (and Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to a lesser extent). An already elite offense just got much tougher to stop. Vucevic's top-20 defensive rebound rate also won't hurt a Celtics squad that ranks 23rd when it comes to cleaning the defensive glass.

The Celtics did well to turn a second-round pick and Simons - who they acquired in last year's Jrue Holiday trade - into a more helpful player on an expiring contract. Boston also cut its luxury-tax bill by more than $22 million and got under the first apron. Among the many advantages of this maneuver, the Celtics can now sign a buyout player who was earning more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($14.1 million) as they continue to load up for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bulls resisted calls to rebuild and sell higher on their veteran stars in recent years, which has led them here. Simons is a terrific shooter and should be able to score efficiently off the bench for as long as he wants. However, he's also a pending unrestricted free agent, making the upside of this return a little cloudy for Chicago.

Bulls-Pistons-Wolves deal could have big implications

This three-team trade is notable enough. Ivey has struggled to find his rhythm in Detroit since left leg and right knee injuries, but the speedy guard has star upside. Chicago taking a flier on such a youngster rather than chasing overpriced veterans is a step in the right direction for an organization obsessed with mediocrity rather than long-term planning. Though Conley's career is on its last legs, the floor general's expiring contract won't complicate things for the Bulls.

The first-place Pistons desperately needed shooting, and Ivey was always assumed to be part of the package that would help Detroit fill that hole. But rather than having to attach a large salary (like Tobias Harris') and draft capital to the young guard in order to get a star, the Pistons are actually the team acquiring an extra first-round pick in this deal (a protected pick swap with Minnesota). Huerter, although currently mired in his worst shooting slump, is a career 37% 3-point shooter whose volume and off-ball activity demand defensive attention. He and Saric are also both on expiring contracts.

None of that makes this deal a win for Detroit. If Huerter finds his stroke, a Finals contender will have gotten better, but even with the pick swap in the mix, this feels like a disappointing return for giving up on Ivey.

Finally, the Timberwolves cut their tax bill and ducked under the first apron, giving the two-time West finalists much more flexibility in their reported pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo (or another star). A protected first-round swap in a contending year is a small price to pay.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.