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Stop chasing NIT underdogs based on their 'motivation'

Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

One of the biggest misconceptions when it comes to the NIT - the other college basketball tournament in March - is that bubble teams that barely missed out on the Big Dance don't want to be there.

It's a lazy take, but it's one that many recreational bettors use to support the supposed "motivation" angle for picking winners. However, those bettors are simply grasping at straws. The same No. 1 seed they believe just wants to get the season over with could still hold a sizable edge over a field of middling teams that might also not care to play faux exhibition games in mid-March.

Sure, bettors who fade higher-seeded NIT teams have seen the strategy pay off at times. Remember when Kentucky lost to Robert Morris in the 2013 NIT? That happened. But that defeat also added to the myth that bigger schools on the bubble simply go through the motions while NIT underdogs come out firing.

If you were similarly led astray, we've got some bad news.

After last year's first round saw NIT favorites go 15-1 straight up and 10-5-1 against the spread, the 2019 opening-round chalk went 7-1 straight up on Tuesday night. With those results factored in, favorites in the first round are on a 35-8 run straight up, while those teams are also 24-18-1 against the spread. And since 2004, betting on Power 6 favorites has hit at a 53.2 percent clip (75-66-3 against the spread), enough to yield a profit.

There are still first-round games this year that fit the mold. Here's the NIT slate for Wednesday, highlighting Power 6 favorites:

Of course, none of this is to say you shouldn't bet any underdogs in the NIT, especially early; there's certainly value to be had with smaller programs that don't get as much media love. Like with any matchup, go through a process of crunching data, using market relevance, and playing numbers.

Just don't think you can get away with blindly fading the chalk based on each team's supposed "motivation" to compete.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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