CBB opening week betting preview: Top teams look to make early statement
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The college basketball season officially tips off Tuesday night with a doubleheader in Madison Square Garden featuring a quartet of top-five teams. No. 3 Kansas battles No. 4 Duke, followed by top-ranked Michigan State against No. 2 Kentucky.
We're providing a betting breakdown of college basketball's biggest games every week. The first slate of contests features some big conference matchups, including the defending national champion Virginia traveling to Syracuse.
Tuesday
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5)
Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish are gone, but don't feel bad for Duke. The Blue Devils are loaded once again with the return of sophomore Tre Jones and another star-studded freshman class, led by five-star recruits Vernon Carey Jr. and Matthew Hurt.
Kansas experienced a down year in 2018 - compared to its lofty expectations - but big things are expected from the Jayhawks with Udoka Azubuike coming back from a hand injury that cost him most of last season. Add in sophomores Devon Dotson and Ochai Agbaji, and the Jayhawks have the look of title contenders.
Duke is 9-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 13 games versus the Big 12 and head coach Mike Krzyzewski's teams love playing at MSG. However, with so many freshmen expected to take on key roles for the Blue Devils, there's some value with Kansas catching points. Lean to the deeper Jayhawks as slight 'dogs in the opener.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans (-2)
These two teams may run this game back in March, according to the oddsmakers. Michigan State (6-1) is the favorite to cut down the nets this season, while Kentucky is right behind it at 7-1. The Spartans are one of the deepest teams, led by National Player of the Year candidate Cassius Winston. Four seniors are expected to log big minutes for Tom Izzo's squad, which went 32-7 last season and reached the Final Four.
Now, stop me if you've heard this before: Kentucky will rely on a talented freshman class. The Wildcats welcome three five-star recruits in Tyrese Maxey, Kahlil Whitney, and Keion Brooks. Kentucky has just one upperclassman on the roster in junior Ashton Hagans.
Head coach John Calipari has said on more than one occasion that he uses early-season games kind of like scrimmages to get to know his team better, as a reliance on incoming freshmen makes for initial questions about rotations and playing time. It doesn't help that the Wildcats open against one of the most experienced teams in the country. Kentucky lost its opener last season to Duke by 34 points. It won't get that ugly this time but take the Spartans laying 2 points is one of the top plays of the week.
Note: Lines for Wednesday's games and beyond will be released later in the week.
Wednesday
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina has a dangerous opener against a Notre Dame squad that is expected to improve this season. The Fighting Irish were young last year and suffered numerous key injuries throughout the campaign, resulting in a last-place ACC finish. They also finished last in the conference in field-goal percentage, but the pieces are in place for a bounce-back season in South Bend.
UNC is talented enough to compete for an ACC title once again, but the Tar Heels must replace three first-round NBA draft picks in Coby White, Cameron Johnson, and Nassir Little, along with Luke May and defensive stopper Kenny Williams. If this line is 10 or more, consider backing the improved Fighting Irish on the road.
Virginia Cavaliers at Syracuse Orange
The defending national champions open the season in Syracuse, though this won't be the same Virginia team that beat Texas Tech seven months ago. Virginia must replace the heart of last year's 35-3 squad after losing guards De'Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome to the NBA. There's still some talent remaining in Mamadi Diakite and Kihei Clark, though Virginia will need to rely on incoming freshmen to make an instant impact.
Syracuse has some rebuilding to do, too, as the Orange return just one starter from last year's NCAA Tournament team. Watch out for incoming freshman Joe Girard III, who scored over 4,000 points and broke many of Jimmer Fredette's records in high school. He'll help Syracuse immediately.
Virginia shot the lights out against Syracuse's 2-3 zone last year in a 79-53 win. Expect a much closer game this time around, with the Orange having a good chance at the outright upset.
Friday
Baylor Bears vs. Washington Huskies
It's the battle of the zone defenses as Baylor and Washington meet in the Armed Forces Classic. Baylor is a potential Final Four squad, but the deep, veteran team led by guards Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell is flying under the radar a little at 40-1 to win the NCAA Tournament. Stud F Tristan Clark (14.4 ppg, 72.1 FG%) is also back after having knee surgery in January and missing the Bears' last 20 games, making Baylor one of the most well-balanced teams in the country.
Don't sleep on Washington, either. The Huskies must replace their top four scorers from a year ago but Mike Hopkins' team should once again be a nightmare on the defensive end.
Baylor has the edge, as it plays against Central Arkansas before traveling to Alaska, while this will be Washington's opener. Hopkins will need some time to get the offense going with so many new faces, and playing against Baylor's zone defense is a tough draw early in the year. If the Bears are a short favorite here, jump all over them. Anything Baylor -6 or lower will be my favorite play of the young season
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.