CBB weekly betting preview: Ohio State, Kentucky face road tests
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The new year means college basketball is heating up with important conference games that will go a long way toward determining NCAA Tournament seeding. This week, Ohio State tries to get back on track at Maryland, while Kentucky is on upset alert in Athens.
Here's a betting breakdown of the week's top matchups.
Stats and rankings are as of Monday, Jan. 6
No. 11 Ohio State at No. 12 Maryland (Tuesday)
What's going on with Ohio State? The Buckeyes are 1-2 in the Big Ten and have dropped three of their last five games after starting the season 9-0. However, KenPom still ranks Ohio State in the top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency entering the week. But during back-to-back losses to West Virginia and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes averaged just 58 points while going 14-of-44 from 3-point range.
Ohio State's offense will try to bounce back against a Maryland team that comes into the week ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, and is allowing just 61.8 points per game (38th in the country). The Terps dropped two straight right before Christmas, but they've since responded with easy wins over Bryant and Indiana.
Rebounding could be a deciding factor in what's expected to be a tight contest, and Maryland holds the edge. The Terps come into this tilt averaging 42.6 rebounds per game (10th), while Ohio State has been inconsistent on the boards, ranking 182nd in offensive rebounds per game.
There should be an NCAA Tournament feel to this clash, especially with the Buckeyes coming off two straight losses. I'm looking at the total with the over at anything 136 or lower. Ohio State's offense is still potent, and I expect a strong effort after two clunkers.
No. 14 Kentucky at Georgia (Tuesday)
While Ohio State-Maryland is the marquee matchup on Tuesday, there's a sneaky good SEC game on the slate too, with Kentucky visiting underrated Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a road victory at Memphis, and they've won four straight thanks to an improved defense that's holding opponents to an average of 58 points over the team's last three games.
But can Georgia's defense continue to play well against a quality opponent like Kentucky? While the Bulldogs held Memphis to 62 points on Saturday, Georgia gave up an average of 84 points in its three losses to Dayton, Michigan State, and Arizona State.
Kentucky has rebounded nicely from losses to Utah and Ohio State with impressive wins over Louisville and Missouri. However, 3-point shooting has been a problem for the Wildcats all season. The young Cats rank 316th in that department, averaging just 29.0% from beyond the arc.
Future NBA lottery pick Anthony Edwards plays for Georgia, and the freshman guard is averaging 18.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. But Georgia lacks depth beyond Edwards and forward Rayshaun Hammonds.
The Bulldogs will scare Kentucky, but look for the Wildcats to cover a small spread on the road.
No. 24 Arizona at No. 9 Oregon (Thursday)
The biggest game of the week is arguably happening Thursday night in the Pac-12 when Oregon hosts Arizona.
The Wildcats were in a bit of a funk after losing three of four, but they're now coming off their most impressive all-around effort of the season: A 75-47 win over rival Arizona State. Meanwhile, after falling in Colorado last week, Oregon responded with a 69-64 road win over a good Utah team.
Oregon has already proven itself this season by playing one of the nation's toughest schedules and earning quality wins over Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall, and Michigan. The Ducks possess one of the top offenses in the country, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency while averaging 78.5 points per game.
But how good are the Wildcats? While Arizona looked unbeatable its last time out against Arizona State, the Wildcats have dropped their toughest games of the season to Baylor, Gonzaga, and St. John's, although those three defeats came by a total of just 12 points. Keeping up with the Ducks won't be a problem though, as the Wildcats are averaging 83.1 points per game (ninth).
Oregon is projected to be a short home favorite here with a total around 145. I like the Ducks and the over in this spot. Oregon's defense has experienced issues at times this season and ranks 65th in efficiency, but the team's offense is rolling behind Payton Pritchard (18.7 ppg).
Expect a fast-paced game featuring exceptional guard play from both squads. The first team to 80 wins.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.