CBB weekly betting preview: Back Florida State's elite offense
We've done it, March is finally here. Conference tournaments are starting to get underway, and in less than two weeks, we'll know the seeding for March Madness.
Sitting at 16-2 against the spread, our unsustainable streak is set to continue with this week's strong slate.
Southern Illinois (-2, 132) vs. Bradley
March 4, 6 p.m. ET
Our first conference tournament play this season comes via the Missouri Valley as No. 8 Bradley takes on No. 9 Southern Illinois. At full strength, this matchup seems even, but that simply isn't the case.
For Southern Illinois, last year's leading returning scorer Marcus Domask has been held to 10 games due to injury and hasn't played since early January. The situation is much worse for the Braves, as three starters have been suspended indefinitely, and two more rotation players are unlikely to suit up due to injury. As a result, Bradley started 12 different players this season and has stumbled down the stretch of conference play, losing 11 of their last 14.
On top of personnel, the Salukis possess a lethal 3-point shooting attack that should hurt a Bradley defense allowing almost 10 makes a game in conference play. Sure, coach Brian Wardle and the Braves have won the Missouri Valley tournament in back-to-back years, but this season's personnel nightmare is simply too much to overcome. Get on this line early, as it's primed to be bet up.
Pick: Southern Illinois -2
Southern Utah (-2, 148) @ Portland State
March 4, 10 p.m
The reasoning for backing Southern Utah is purely stylistic. Portland State plays a hectic full-court press defense, resulting in a 25% turnover rate, first in the Big Sky. The downside to that defense is over-aggressiveness - over a quarter of their opponents' possessions result in free throws.
That plays perfectly in the hands of the Thunderbirds, as they lead the conference in free-throw attempts and shoot over 78% from the line. Given the fact they struggle from deep and are playing on the road, getting to the line as much as possible will be key to their success. Considering the Vikings allowed 29.5 free throws per game in their two-game series against Northern Colorado last weekend, that shouldn't be an issue.
Meanwhile, the Thunderbirds' weakness lie on defense, but with Portland State ranking in the bottom-third nationally in every shooting statistic, the Vikings won't be tough to stop. Southern Utah should come motivated too, as two wins in Portland give it the No. 2 seed in next week's conference tournament. So long as the Thunderbirds can control the ball against the press, they should be able to cover the spread. If the line jumps, I would play it with confidence up to -5.
Pick: Southern Utah -2
Florida State (-6, 155) @ Notre Dame
March 6, 12 p.m
Notre Dame's offensive first, defensive second approach this season has been met with mixed results. The Fighting Irish sit at a poor 9-14 on the season despite their elite shooting numbers across the board. Their affinity for shootouts may work well against some teams, but Florida State is not one of them.
Simply put, there is no real avenue for Notre Dame to get stops against this high-flying Seminoles group. They lead the ACC in offensive efficiency and 3-point percentage, and have put up 70 points in all but three games this season. Their biggest weakness on that side of the ball is turnovers, but the Notre Dame defense is notoriously poor at forcing takeaways.
With those numbers in mind, Florida State should have a field day on the offensive end. The worry is that in the last game of the ACC regular season, with the conference's No. 1 seed locked up, the Seminoles may look past the Fighting Irish. Still, with aspirations well beyond the ACC, and a very deep roster, Florida State should have enough juice to cover the spread even if it rises.
Pick: Florida State -6