Mountain West betting preview and predictions
The Mountain West may not have a serious national championship contender, but it's one of the deepest conferences in the country with eight of 12 teams sitting at 30-1 odds or shorter to win the title.
Traditional Mountain West powerhouse Boise State is the 11-10 (+110) favorite to win another conference title, followed by Fresno State and San Diego State at 5-1. Air Force had a 5-7 record and missed out on a bowl last season, but oddsmakers are expecting them to rebound in 2019. The Falcons are the third favorite to win the MWC at 6-1.
Because of its depth, the MWC offers more value than some top-heavy conferences like the SEC and ACC. While Boise State is a big favorite to win the MWC championship, the Broncos aren't nearly as dominant as teams like Alabama and Clemson, making it more likely a school from the middle of the pack can surprise and cash in for bettors.
Let's dive into our best bet, value play, and pick to avoid for the MWC this season.
(Over prices in parentheses)
| Team | Win total | MWC odds |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 9.5 (-130) | 11-10 |
| San Diego State | 8.5 (+140) | 5-1 |
| Fresno State | 8 (-110) | 5-1 |
| Air Force | 8 (+130) | 6-1 |
| Utah State | 6.5 (-120) | 8-1 |
| Nevada | 6 (-120) | 30-1 |
| Hawaii | 5.5 (-140) | 30-1 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 (+115) | 30-1 |
| UNLV | 4 (-130) | 100-1 |
| Colorado State | 3.5 (-110) | 100-1 |
| New Mexico | 5 (+155) | 300-1 |
| San Jose State | 2.5 (-155) | 500-1 |
Odds courtesy of the Westgate LV SuperBook
Best bet
UNLV over 4 wins (-130)
Last season, UNLV opened 2-1 and won consecutive games by 28-plus points for the first time since joining the FBS in 1978. Then, quarterback Armani Rogers went down with an injury and the Rebels dropped six straight before winning two of their last three games with upsets over San Diego State and Nevada. UNLV finished a disappointing 4-8, but if Rogers can stay healthy, the Rebels will compete for a bowl berth in 2019.
UNLV has the pieces in place to be one of the most improved teams in the country. They return 13 starters and 57 lettermen. The Rebels were expected to make a move in the MWC last year, but after Rogers went out, the offensive philosophy changed and the Rebels struggled. The good news for UNLV is it returns an abundance of experience on the offensive line to lead the way for one of the most dangerous running quarterbacks in FBS.
Value is key when looking at futures and UNLV is one of the most undervalued teams in the nation heading into the season. With a dynamic quarterback, experienced roster, and soft schedule, the Rebels should easily improve their win total by one game and cash the over.
Value play
Wyoming 30-1 to win the MWC
Another undervalued MWC team is Wyoming. Although the Cowboys went 6-6 last year and missed out on a bowl, they closed the season with four straight wins after turning to freshman quarterback Sean Chambers. In those final four games, the Cowboys outscored their opponents 124-60.
Chambers returns as the unquestioned starter, along with 46 lettermen. Head coach Craig Bohl has done a great job, leading the Cowboys to back-to-back eight-win seasons before falling to .500 last year. Now, with Chambers at quarterback and a defense that held five opponents to 17 points or fewer in 2018, the Cowboys are primed to make a run at the conference title.
Wyoming does close the season with three of four games on the road at Boise State, Utah State, and Air Force. That gauntlet could keep it out of the MWC title game, but at 30-1, it's worth the risk. The Cowboys have a realistic chance to be undefeated in conference play when they travel to Boise on Nov. 9.
Bet to avoid
Fresno State 5-1 to win MWC
Fresno State won the MWC title a year ago and finished 12-2. However, with just nine starters and 35 lettermen returning, along with a new quarterback, the Bulldogs will likely take a step back in 2019.
Phil Steele lists Fresno State as one of the least experienced teams in the country this season. While the Bulldogs have enough talent to compete for a title, road games against Air Force, San Diego State, and Hawaii are a tall order for a team breaking in so many new starters.
Fresno State was also plus-12 in turnovers last year with an experienced quarterback and defense. Expect that number to drop and turnovers to be a bigger issue with only three returning starters on offense.
Again, futures are about value and at 5-1 to win the MWC, it simply isn't there for the Bulldogs. Fresno State has too many question marks to enter the season as the second favorite to win the conference. Look elsewhere.