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C-USA betting preview and predictions

Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It's fair to say that Conference USA has taken a nosedive during the last few years in terms of public appeal.

After three teams from the conference finished in the top 15 in points per game during the 2016 campaign, there wasn't a single program in the top 25 last season. While that may have forced general college football fans to hop off the ride, bettors understand that hitching your wagon to a mid-major can be a treasure trove. And if you aren't dialing in on mid-majors strictly because of the tier they're in, you're doing your wallet a disservice.

We dove into the best bets, value plays, and picks to avoid for the C-USA.

(Over prices listed in parentheses)

Team Win Total C-USA Odds
Marshall 7 (-150) 7-2
Florida Atlantic 8 (-130) 4-1
North Texas 7.5 (-110) 5-1
Louisiana Tech 7.5 (-125) 8-1
Florida International 7.5 (-115) 8-1
UAB 7 (-160) 8-1
Southern Miss 7.5 (+140) 10-1
Middle Tennessee State 5.5 (+105) 30-1
Western Kentucky 5 (+100) 40-1
Charlotte 4.5 (+110) 80-1
Old Dominion 4.5 (+170) 100-1
UTSA 2.5 (-185) 100-1
Rice 2.5 (+140) 100-1
UTEP 2.5 (+175) 300-1

Best bet

Marshall over 7 (-150)

Using returning production can be a great tool to forecast a team's success. It becomes even more valuable when you weigh the who, what, and where of the equation. In the case of Marshall, the Thundering Herd aren't necessarily the most all-around experienced program - they rank No. 94 in terms of returning starting production - but it's where they return pieces that should have Doc Holliday and Co. right in the thick of the C-USA race.

Marshall didn't mind trading scores and engaging in shootouts a few years ago. It's the only option when your defense is as inept as the Herd's units were in seasons past. But with a defense that brings back most of its key pieces (quality more than quantity), the Herd don't have to overachieve offensively. Sophomore Isaiah Green performed last season as you'd expect a freshman quarterback to: flashes of potential mixed with some mistakes, but he looked like a high-ceiling player who won't have to carry the heaviest of workloads this fall. He's back under center, and while the passing game might not be as efficient, he'll have the luxury of playing behind an experienced line and with two standout running backs - Keion Davis and Brenden Knox - alongside him.

The schedule is tough, but far from daunting. While the Herd get Boise State, Cincinnati, and Ohio for non-conference dates, they're favored in seven of their eight C-USA games, according to S&P+. Betting on Holliday is typically a safe move, and we'd go back to the well in this spot.

Value play

Louisiana Tech to win C-USA (8-1)

Defense might win championships, but offensive juggernauts in the Group of Five have, at times, reigned supreme (UCF in 2017-18 and Western Kentucky in 15-16 are just two examples). One program that deserves some love to win the conference title is Louisiana Tech, which possesses an offense that should experience a vast improvement from its 22.2 points per game last season. The Bulldogs return 76 percent of their offensive production from a season ago, headlined by a solid quarterback-wide receiver tandem in J'Mar Smith and Adrian Hardy and a line bringing loads of experience.

Louisiana Tech under head coach Skip Holtz has typically been solid, as its won eight games in four of five seasons. Not only should it compete again in 2019, but bettors should also love the upside of the offense.

Bet to avoid

Western Kentucky over 5 (+100)

Reeling programs need to make splashy hires during coaching searches. They don't have to be the most well-known candidates, but teams should think outside the box when bringing in someone fresh to inject life into a program.

That's why it was puzzling when Western Kentucky anointed former Hilltoppers quarterbacks coach Tyson Helton as the main.

Helton had some fingerprints on the prolific offenses the Hilltoppers trotted out a few years ago, but he flunked out last season as the offensive coordinator with Tennessee. And though Western Kentucky is a team returning a ton of starters - 76 percent, No. 14 in the country - there isn't a lot of quality there.

While we wouldn't take the under at that price, we sure as heck wouldn't want to invest in the over.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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