College football Week 6 best bets
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Every Thursday during the college football season, theScore's sports betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each member has been given a fictitious $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the season. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
All lines are courtesy of theScore Bet as of Thursday morning.
Alex Kolodziej ($1,044)
Season record: 8-6-1, +$44
Western Michigan at Toledo
Total: 70
Western Michigan should do whatever it wants offensively in this game. Toledo is coming off a contest in which it allowed 21 points to BYU. Great! Except the Rockets gave up 455 yards, created a turnover in their own territory, and watched BYU’s kicker miss two field goals. It was all pretty misleading.
Western Michigan is currently top 10 in the country in yards gained per play (7.1), which isn't too shabby considering they’ve played Michigan State and Syracuse, two Power 5 teams. The Broncos will move the ball at will on Saturday.
Pick: Western Michigan team total over 35 ($40)
Thomas Casale ($889)
Season record: 3-5-1, -$111
UCF (-4) at Cincinnati
It feels like we're getting some value here because UCF lost at Pitt two weeks ago. Cincinnati gives up a lot of explosive plays while struggling against athletic teams. UCF beat the Bearcats by 25 last year, and an athletic Ohio State squad blasted Cincinnati 42-0 earlier this season.
The Knights are 18-8 ATS over their last 26 games as a favorite and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as road chalk. UCF will produce too many chunk plays both offensively and defensively for Cincinnati to stay within the number here. Look for the Knights to win another road game by double digits.
Pick: UCF -4 ($75)
Auburn (-3) at Florida
This looks like an even game on paper, but Auburn will prove to be the superior team Saturday. The Tigers have played much tougher opponents, and Auburn's defensive front will be a nightmare for Florida's shaky offensive line.
Oddsmakers believe Auburn would be around a touchdown favorite on a neutral field, and they've slotted the Tigers much higher in their power rankings. I agree, and think Auburn takes this one by +10.
Pick: Auburn -3 ($75)
Michigan State at Ohio State (-20)
Ohio State has outscored its first five opponents 262-43. Only an idiot would bet against them right now. I am that idiot.
Michigan State ranks top 10 in total and scoring defense, and Mark Dantonio's teams historically excel as big underdogs. The Spartans will give Ohio State a scare and cover the 20-point spread.
Pick: Michigan State +20 ($75)
Alex Moretto ($847)
Season record: 4-6-1, -$153
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Total: 48.5
North Carolina was a two-point conversion away from the biggest shock of the season against Clemson last week, and that hurts. A physically demanding and emotionally draining game certainly took its toll on the Tar Heels, and they'll need some time to get going as a result.
Luckily for them, Georgia Tech is too offensively inept to take advantage, with the team experiencing plenty of growing pains during its switch from an option offense to a pro-style scheme. Georgia Tech ranks 121st in ESPN’s efficiency ratings and has put up first-half point totals of zero, 14, six, and zero this season. The 14-point “outburst” came against a terrible South Florida team, and the Yellow Jackets failed to find the end zone against The Citadel.
The Tar Heels, meanwhile, have recorded just six first-half points in their two games outside of Chapel Hill, and I expect them to struggle here too coming off the tough Clemson loss.
Picks: First half under 24 ($60) and game under 48.5
Virginia Tech at Miami (-13.5)
Virginia Tech is bad. Like, bottom-10-team-in-the-country bad.
Casale has been beating the "fade the Hokies" drum all season, and I see no better time to hop on the bandwagon. The Hurricanes also aren’t great, but they play solidly on both sides of the ball.
Coming off a bye, this will be a big game for freshman quarterback Jarren Williams, and Miami's 13th-ranked defense will easily contain a toothless Hokies offense.
Pick: Miami -13.5 ($50)
C Jackson Cowart ($783)
Season record: 2-9-1, -$217
Washington Huskies (-16) at Stanford Cardinal
An early-season loss to a then-underrated Cal team threw people off Washington's scent, but the Huskies have been rolling since. They've won three straight games by two-plus scores, and Washington shut down a talented but hampered USC offense a week ago.
The Huskies could face another backup quarterback this week against Stanford, a team that struggled to put away lowly Oregon State last week and hasn't looked right since starting pivot K.J. Costello's Week 1 injury. Head coach David Shaw's squad has never been this big of a 'dog at home, but that speaks to how far this program has fallen. This game could get ugly fast.
Pick: Washington -16 ($50)
Auburn Tigers (-3) at Florida Gators
Despite the perceived difficulty of playing in The Swamp, Florida is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven home games against SEC teams, and the Gators are 3-8 ATS overall during the last 20 years when getting points at home. A superior Auburn team should roll.
Pick: Auburn -3 ($35)
North Carolina (-10) at Georgia Tech
The Tar Heels have a long history of stumbling in Atlanta, with their only win over the team's last 10 tries coming after a 21-point comeback. North Carolina was an underdog in all of those games, and the Tar Heels now lay double digits on the road for only the fifth time this decade in a classic letdown spot following the Clemson loss. This has all the makings of an upset.
Picks: Georgia Tech +10 ($25), Georgia Tech +320 ($10 to win $32)