College football Week 9 best bets

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Every Friday during the college football season, theScore's sports betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each member has been given a fictitious $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the season. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

All lines are courtesy of theScore Bet.

Alex Kolodziej ($907)

Season record: 9-10-1, -$93

Colorado State at Fresno State

Total: 55.5

I hate tuning in for a mid-major game late on a weekday and thinking I have it all figured out. But after watching Fresno State against UNLV last Friday, it's clear the Bulldogs are more offensive-focused than in years past, while a leaky pass defense gave up plenty of explosive plays to the Rebels. I'm genuinely concerned for the unit when Colorado State and quarterback Patrick O’Brien - who's averaging more than 9.0 yards per air attempt this season - roll into town. Colorado State overs were hot to start the season but have since cooled off, and it's mostly due to the recent competition; San Diego State doesn't get in shootouts and New Mexico's offense is a trainwreck. Between two formidable offenses and a pair of spotty defenses, I think this one goes comfortably over the total.

Pick: Over 55.5 ($40)

Duke at North Carolina (-3.5)

Duke is highly undervalued in this spot. The Blue Devils are 4-3 and have given up more than 350 yards to just one team this season: Alabama. Talk about some unfortunate luck. Duke's defense has also been behind the eight ball of late, with the offense turning the ball over 12 times during the team's last three games. The Blue Devils are in a good situation Saturday, though, as they've covered each of the last five after a straight-up loss. That, along with the fact that North Carolina is coming off a six-overtime loss to Virginia Tech, makes me side with the underdog here.

Pick: Duke +3.5 ($40)

Alex Moretto ($866)

Season record: 8-8-1, -$134

Memphis (-10.5) at Tulsa

This is a huge game. No, wait ... I was looking ahead to next week. That's when Memphis (6-1) hosts No. 16 SMU (8-0) in a contest that will likely decide the winner of the AAC West. But that'll be the case only if Memphis can avoid slipping up in this classic look-ahead spot against a Tulsa team that is a lot better than its record indicates.

Tulsa has had a ridiculously tough schedule, as it's visited a trio of ranked teams in Michigan State, SMU, and Cincinnati. It put up an impressive fight last week against the Bearcats after losing in triple overtime to SMU at the start of October. Tulsa has had just two home games so far, in which it beat Wyoming and faltered late against Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane play impressive defense, and quarterback Zach Smith should be able to move the ball against a Memphis team that gives up points in bunches and will have one eye on next week's date with the Mustangs.

Pick: Tulsa +10.5 ($60)

Thomas Casale ($754)

Season record: 6-10-1, -$246

Virginia (-3.5) at Louisville

I really like Virginia in this spot. Sure, Louisville has been better than expected this season, especially on offense; it scored a combined 103 points in wins over Boston College and Wake Forest before falling to Clemson last week. But Louisville's problem is on defense. The Cardinals have given up at least 35 points in four straight games. Virginia got its offense rolling last week in a 48-14 rout of Duke, and it ranks ninth in total defense and has held all three road opponents to a season low in yardage this season. Louisville is just 2-8-1 against the spread in its last 11 home games. Virginia is too physical on both sides of the ball and will cover the short number on the road Saturday.

Pick: Virginia -3.5 ($100)

Penn State (-6) at Michigan State

Penn State is in an awful spot as it travels to East Lansing after defeating Michigan during a "White Out" at home last week. The line for this game tells you all you need to know. Michigan State was blasted in its last two games against Ohio State and Wisconsin by a combined score of 72-10. Penn State opened as a touchdown favorite but sharp money pushed that number down to six. The Spartans had an extra week to prepare and are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams. I'll follow the money here and back the home underdog.

Pick: Michigan State +6 ($100)

Duke at North Carolina (-3.5)

I had this number closer to pick but we are getting some value on Duke after it was blown out last week. However, UNC is coming off an emotional loss to Virginia Tech in six overtimes. David Cutcliffe's teams perform well in the underdog role and Duke is 20-9-1 ATS in this interstate rivalry. All but one of UNC's games this year have been decided by six points or fewer. Expect another nail bitter Saturday, so give me the 3.5 points with Duke.

Pick: Duke +3.5 ($100)

C Jackson Cowart ($531)

Season record: 3-15-1, -$469

California at Utah (-21)

Since 2006, home favorites giving more than 17 points are 0-20 ATS when the total is below 40 points. The total for this game is 37. Simply put, when oddsmakers expect a low-scoring blowout, the road 'dog always wins.

Cal's beleaguered offense hasn't looked impressive in three straight losses, though its top-20 scoring defense still hasn't allowed more than 24 points in a game this year. The Golden Bears have lost by 21 points or more just three times in 32 games since Justin Wilcox took over in 2017.

There have been 220 games with a total below 40 since 2006, and only 39 of them (17.7%) ended with a 21-point win or better by the favorite. Expect the Golden Bears' defense to keep it respectable in Salt Lake City.

Pick: California +21 ($100)

Penn State (-6) at Michigan State

Top-six teams have been stellar ATS this year, but none were priced below -17, so the market sees something with this game. Since 2015, unranked home teams are 18-7-2 ATS when getting less than a touchdown against a top-10 team. This line feels suspiciously low and is moving toward Michigan State even as the public hammer Penn State. Give me the Spartans after a week to prepare.

Pick: Michigan State +6 ($60)

Duke at North Carolina (-3.5)

Add me to the chorus of bettors fading North Carolina after its gut-wrenching six-overtime loss. Duke's elite pass rush should have its way with UNC's offensive line, which has allowed the eighth-most sacks in the nation. Take the points in this rivalry spot.

Pick: Duke +3.5 ($60)