CFB Playoff rankings vs. title odds: No. 5 Clemson still co-favorite
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The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season came out Tuesday, sparking debate over whether Ohio State deserved the No. 1 spot and if Clemson was really the fifth-best team.
There was little such debate in the betting world.
Rankings aside, the pecking order has remained clear for most of the year: Alabama and Clemson are up top, Ohio State and LSU are close behind, and a handful of hopeful competitors round out the only teams worth betting on.
Still, the release of the rankings can highlight value (or overreaction) in the betting community. Here are the current title odds at theScore Bet in New Jersey and the CFB Playoff rankings, with a few of the biggest differences highlighted below:
| TEAM | ODDS | PLAYOFF RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 2-1 | 3 |
| Clemson | 2-1 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 3-1 | 1 |
| LSU | 4-1 | 2 |
| Georgia | 12-1 | 6 |
| Oklahoma | 15-1 | 9 |
| Penn State | 15-1 | 4 |
| Oregon | 30-1 | 7 |
| Utah | 75-1 | 8 |
| Auburn | 100-1 | 11 |
| Baylor | 100-1 | 12 |
| Florida | 100-1 | 10 |
| Michigan | 100-1 | 14 |
| Minnesota | 100-1 | 17 |
| Wisconsin | 150-1 | 13 |
| Notre Dame | 250-1 | 15 |
| Iowa | 300-1 | 18 |
| Washington | 500-1 | NR |
| Kansas State | 5000-1 | 16 |
| Wake Forest | 5000-1 | 19 |
| Boise State | 5000-1 | 22 |
| Cincinnati | OFF | 20 |
| Memphis | OFF | 21 |
| Oklahoma State | OFF | 23 |
| Navy | OFF | 24 |
| SMU | OFF | 25 |
No. 5 Clemson (2-1, T-1st in title odds)
The biggest news from Tuesday was the ranking of Clemson, as the school slid to fifth in the CFB rankings despite owning a perfect 9-0 record after winning the title a year ago. If the season ended today, the committee says, none of that would be enough to get into the big dance.
Of course, the season doesn't end today, so it's entirely a moot point. Barring a miracle, the Tigers are a solid bet to end their season without a blemish, while two of the teams ahead of them are guaranteed at least one loss in the coming weeks as conference play heats up. Simply waiting out the chaos should all but secure Clemson a playoff berth.
That relates directly to Penn State, the committee's choice at No. 4 ahead of the reigning champs. The Nittany Lions travel to Minnesota this weekend and play Ohio State on the road in two weeks; if they win both, they've earned their spot. If not, today's ranking is irrelevant.
Oddsmakers would make Clemson a double-digit favorite over Penn State on a neutral field, and they're still trusting Clemson (and Alabama) over any team in the field. They're the safest bet on the board, even with shaky play in an undefeated campaign.
No. 9 Oklahoma (15-1, T-6th in title odds)
The Sooners got the short end of the stick in Tuesday's rankings release, falling behind two one-loss Pac-12 teams in Oregon and Utah. If one of those two teams win out - beating the other in the conference title game - to end the year with one loss, they'll surely keep their spot ahead of Oklahoma, right?
Not so fast. The Sooners get Baylor in two weeks on the road and finish the year against Oklahoma State, a team the committee still sees as a viable competitor at this point. Then, a likely rematch with Baylor awaits in the Big-12 title game.
Those three wins alone could be enough to remind voters why they valued Oklahoma so highly in the first place. Still, it's hard to ignore the relative value of Oregon (30-1) and particularly Utah (75-1), both of which still technically have the inside track in the race for the fourth spot.
No. 13 Wisconsin (150-1, 15th in title odds)
The committee has seen enough from Wisconsin to believe in its Big Ten title hopes, ranking the Badgers ahead of two-loss Michigan and undefeated Minnesota. Oddsmakers disagree, offering those two at 100-1 and Wisconsin at a daunting 150-1 price.
This is another classic case of the committee ranking teams in the moment, as they should, and oddsmakers taking a longer view. The Badgers have already failed their biggest test of the year vs. Ohio State and would have to run the table with wins vs. Iowa and Minnesota - two teams the committee is down on - to get a shot at a rematch.
Michigan, meanwhile, hosts Ohio State on Nov. 30, while the Gophers host Penn State this week and could face the Nittany Lions or Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. Opportunity alone gives those two a better shot, if not a long shot, of reaching the title game. Good luck, Wisconsin.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.