College football Week 11 action report: Bettors taking LSU, under at Bama
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Before you make your college football bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing, especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 11 slate.
No. 2 LSU at No. 3 Alabama
Current line: Alabama -6
This is the game we've all been waiting for - and bettors love the 'dog.
Alabama opened as a touchdown favorite at home against rival LSU, but sharps have grabbed the visiting Tigers in the highest-activity game of the week. LSU is seeing a majority of moneyline bets and four times as much money on the point spread, pushing the line down to +6 ahead of Saturday.
"This game's kinda shaping up that we're gonna need Alabama," Rood said.
Bettors are also smashing the under at a 19-to-1 clip, pushing the total from 64.5 to 63.5 between two programs that have historically boasted strong defenses. Yet, offense drives this year's matchup, with both teams averaging more than 45 points per game behind quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Joe Burrow (LSU).
"Keeping it under could be detrimental," Rood said. "We're gonna need Joe Burrow to light it up and keep up pace with Tua."
No. 4 Penn State at No. 17 Minnesota
Current line: Penn State -7
The College Football Playoff committee surprised many when it installed Penn State as the fourth team in this week's rankings, ahead of title co-favorite Clemson. The Nittany Lions have a chance to prove they're worthy of the spot Saturday as big road favorites over undefeated Minnesota.
Bettors are buying the hype, playing Penn State at a 5-to-1 rate over the Golden Gophers. The average ticket price is twice as much on the road favorite, too, suggesting that sharps see value in the big number.
Rood says his book is high in the market at -7, but bettors still aren't trusting Minnesota at home, and the public is likely to continue that trend into Saturday.
"I don't see us getting too far off of that -7 very quickly," Rood said. "That's gonna be a critical game for us tomorrow."
No. 18 Iowa at No. 13 Wisconsin
Current line: Wisconsin -8.5
The third ranked matchup Saturday is among the most even on the board, with roughly 60% of the money on Wisconsin but more tickets on visiting Iowa. The parlay count is mostly split, too, though Rood expects some Hawkeyes money to come in closer to kickoff.
"It's gonna be a game that kind of looks like a Pros vs. Joes game," Rood said.
The more compelling bet on this game is under 38, which is attracting twice the money and three times the tickets despite featuring one of the lowest totals of the season.
"That's pretty gutsy," Rood said of betting below that number. "Big Ten football - gotta love it."
Illinois at Michigan State
Current line: Michigan State -14.5
Sharps have been riding Michigan State all year despite three blowout losses, but they may be no match for the public this week when the Spartans host surging Illinois as better than two-touchdown favorites.
The average ticket is about five times pricier on the home favorite, but the Fighting Illini are seeing a 3-to-2 advantage in money thanks to heavy support from the public, which is grabbing Illinois at a 7-to-1 clip in ticket count. Parlay tickets also favor the Illini at 10-to-1, so things could skew even further toward the road 'dog by kickoff.
Illinois is riding a four-game ATS streak, which includes a shocking win over Wisconsin. The Spartans, meanwhile, were stomped by the Badgers amid their 0-4 ATS run.
"Everyone's starting to believe in them a little bit," Rood said of the Illini. "This is going to be a big game for local Midwest operators."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.