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Here's how the oddsboard for Week 3 is shaping up:
|Syracuse at Pittsburgh||Pitt -21.5|
|Liberty at Western Kentucky||WKU -14|
|Houston at Baylor||Baylor -4.5|
|Navy at Tulane||Tulane -7.5|
|UL Lafayette at Georgia State||ULL -17|
|Boston College at Duke||Duke -5.5|
|Tulsa at Oklahoma State||OSU -23|
|Appalachian State at Marshall||App State -4|
|South Florida at Notre Dame||ND -26|
|Florida Atlantic at Georgia Southern||GSU -1.5|
|Central Florida at Georgia Tech||UCF -7.5|
|Troy at Middle Tennessee State||Troy -3.5|
|SMU at North Texas||SMU -14|
|Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss||USM -5.5|
|Miami at Louisville||Louisville -2.5|
|Texas State at UL Monroe||Texas State -5.5|
|Wake Forest at NC State||NC State -2.5|
The trends say to back Navy, but how can you side with a team that got bullied in the trenches in Week 1? The Midshipmen were walloped by BYU's rushing attack en route to a 55-3 in the opener. Now, they face a Tulane offense that only runs the ball.
SMU's offense looked all out of sorts in Week 1 against Texas State. The Mustangs simply got too cute trying to run the ball when they could have passed their way to a blowout win. With two weeks to clean everything up, SMU should score at will against a North Texas defense that allowed 32.6 points per game in 2019.
I wasn't in love with Western Kentucky's game plan versus Louisville last weekend, but this is a severe step down in class. Liberty was so-so last year and entered the offseason in the bottom 25 of overall returning production.
I'm putting Baylor and first-year head coach Dave Aranda on upset alert for Week 3.
The longtime defensive coordinator helped lead LSU to a title last season and sent six players to the draft. While some assume he'll work his magic right off the bat in Waco, Texas, his personnel leaves a lot to be desired - Baylor lost 78% of last year's defensive production, the fourth most in the entire country.
The Cougars are stocked in terms of returning production. They brought back 93% of their defense and 73% of their offense, good for No. 3 overall in the nation.
This spread may have been three touchdowns a season ago. However, these rosters are complete polar opposites from 2019. It looks like a pretty big mismatch on paper, but don't be surprised if Houston's speed and athleticism give an inexperienced Baylor squad some fits.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.