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CFB Week 12 best bets: A rare spot to bet an Alabama under

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We went 1-2 last week in our best bets to keep us a shade above .500 on the year. We're moving on to Week 12, which features a couple of plays on Friday.

Purdue @ Minnesota (+1.5, 61), Nov. 20 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

Bettors watched a low-scoring game unfold between Minnesota and Iowa last Friday. Don't expect another Big Ten slog in Week 12 when Minnesota hosts Purdue.

The Boilermakers have gone under the total in three straight, but this is the most favorable matchup to date for the offense - Minnesota's defense has been gashed all season. Although quarterback Aidan O'Connell is rumored to be out, backup Jack Plummer comes into an ideal situation. The Golden Gophers allow more than five touchdowns per game this season due to a defense that ranks No. 114 against the run.

Minnesota needs a get-right game offensively after getting worked by Iowa. The Golden Gophers typically respond well after getting beat up, as they've helped cash six of the last eight overs following a double-digit loss at home.

Quarterback Tanner Morgan was handcuffed all last week by the Hawkeyes. He should bust out in a big way.

Pick: Over 61

UMass @ FAU (-33.5, 51.5), Nov. 20 @ 8:00 p.m.

I'm not sure how UMass scores here. SP+ only has four offenses currently forecasted worse than the Minutemen, who've registered a grand total of 10 points through a pair of games so far.

Florida Atlantic might play with more pace this week, but this isn't an offense that can score every time it touches the ball, even against the worst defense in the nation. The Owls have taken a huge step back offensively in 2020, ranking just No. 105 in OSP+.

FAU's gone under the total in four straight home games versus teams with losing records. It should be five straight after Week 12.

Pick: Under 51.5

LSU @ Arkansas (+1.5, 63), Nov. 21 @ 12 p.m.

Remember when I recommended taking the Arkansas-Florida under last weekend and there were no fewer than a trillion points? It pains me, but I have to go back to the well here and play the Razorbacks under the total in Week 12 against LSU.

It turns out Florida is just too volatile to bet under the total. LSU has also been all over the place this season, but the offense could be in for a dud here. The Tigers are likely going with second-string quarterback T.J. Finley and Arkansas is one of the tougher tests so far this season in a defense-optional SEC.

The Razorbacks are on a 4-0 run to the under as home 'dogs. They'll control the pace and ring in another.

Pick: Under 63

Kentucky @ Alabama (-30, 58), Nov. 12 @ 3:30 p.m.

Kentucky is an interesting matchup for Alabama. I'm not saying the 30-point spread is off, but the Wildcats' defense could make life somewhat challenging for the Crimson Tide's star-studded skill corps - something that has yet to transpire in 2020.

Kentucky ranks No. 35 in defensive SP+ and is No. 10 in yards per completion allowed (9.9). Alabama's going to score, but perhaps an opportunistic unit on the other side can come up with a few timely stops.

With such a low total for a 'Bama game, we're going to need as many as possible.

Pick: Under 58

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

2020 betting record: 19-18

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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